Week 5: Fighting Illini vs Cornhuskers Picks
Week 5 college betting action sees the Illinois Fighting Illini taking on the No. 21 Nebraska Cornhuskers down in Lincoln, Neb. Cappers Picks provides free college football handicapping tips all season long.
Entering this contest, we have two teams coming off successful Week 4s. The Nebraska Cornhuskers took down the Miami Hurricanes 41-31, while the Illinois Fighting Illini beat Texas State 42-35.
College Football Odds
Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1) vs. #24 Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0)
Saturday, Sept. 27
9:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Neb.)
BTN
College Football Betting Lines: Nebraska -20
College Football O/U: 66
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Nebraska should have the edge in this one, as the win over Miami was a more solid victory (Miami scored a late touchdown to make it look closer) over a more solid opponent. The question is: Can it win ATS with a 20-point spread on the horizon?
Illinois
The Illinois Fighting Illini are 3-1 on the season, but the problem is that they’re actually outscoring their opponents by an average of 0.3 points per contest. On the year, Illinois is averaging 32. 8 points per game (64th in the nation) while giving up 32.5 (103rd in the nation).
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Offensively, this group is as one-dimensional as it comes. On the season, it’s tossing the football for 321.5 yards per game through the air (19th), and on the ground, it’s accumulating just 108.3 yards per game (113th).
The key in this one for Illinois will be stopping Ameer Abdullah. He’s a Heisman candidate at running back, but the problem is that Illinois is just 83rd in rushing yards allowed per game (172.5).
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The good news is that the Fighting Illini are actually better at defending the run than they are against the pass. Their 95th-overall ranking in pass defense is nothing to be proud of, but fans should find solace (even if it’s minimal), that the team knows where its defensive attention needs to be.
Nebraska
As it usually is for Nebraska, finding a win both straight up and against the spread will be all about Abdullah. He’s rushed the ball for 625 yards at this point in the season, and he’s coming off a monster performance (2229 yards, 6.5 yard average, 2 TD) against Miami.
With Abdullah leading the way, Nebraska is seventh in the nation in running the football. The team is averaging 329 yards per game on the ground, which is the reason it’s scoring 45.5 points per contest (10th).
Defensively, this group is giving up just 20.3 points per contest. That number is good enough for 33rd in the nation, and it’s as impressive as it is because of a balanced attack that is 35th in rushing defense, 44th in passing defense and 32nd in total points allowed.
Stopping the pass will be crucial for Nebraska in this one, as the attack of Illinois will be focused primarily on moving through the air.
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NCAA Football Handicapping Trends:
- ILL are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.
- Over is 7-2 in ILL last 9 games in September.
- ILL are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
Week 5 NCAA Football
Illinois hasn’t done well ATS on the road in recent history. The team is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games, and it is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 total conference games.
For Nebraska, the only fear is that this group might be looking ahead to Week 6. Oct. 4 will feature a road game against the No. 9 Michigan State Spartans.
Free NCAA Betting Pick 4* Nebraska -20
As long as the Cornhuskers don’t forget they have a game this week (looking too far ahead to the elite competition MSU will provide), they should take care of business against Illinois at home. Look for Abdullah to have another big-time showing, and look for the home team to get a win both straight up and ATS.
Check out our Updated College Football Week 5 Odds.
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