#1 LSU Tigers (6-0, 3-0 SEC) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (3-2, 0-2 SEC)
Two standard SEC powers clash at Rocky Top this Saturday afternoon, though the going has been much better lately for the visitors than the home side.
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville TN
Saturday, Oct. 15, 3:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: LSU -833, Tennessee +550
Spread: LSU -15.5, Tennessee +15.5
Over/Under: 43.5
Louisiana State is virtually unstoppable right now. The Tigers have been playing on another planet so far in 2011, ranking in the Top 25 in both points for (20th) and points against (8th) and combining a strong running game and efficient passing game to yield a perfect season thus far.
The Vols, meanwhile, are an interesting case study. Tennessee is a team that is rebuilding and is making tangible strides toward being a better football team; UT’s two conference losses were tough to swallow and against a pair of good teams (33-23 to ranked Florida, 20-12 to Georgia). The Vols have crushed their other three opponents this season, including upstart Cincinnati. So how good is this team really? How the sherbet-and-white fare against the top-ranked team in the nation should tell us volumes about how far along Derek Dooley’s team really is.
The most intriguing element of the Tennessee team is its passing attack. The young, dynamic group of QB Tyler Bray (1,579 pass yards, 14 TDs) and WRs Da’Rick Rogers (32 receptions, 513 yards, 6 TDs) and Justin Hunter (314 yards on just 17 snags) make the Vols’ offense potentially dangerous. Tennessee is 11th in the nation in passing and also puts up almost 33 points per contest, despite spinning its wheels last week against Georgia.
But not only is the LSU secondary the gravest challenge the Tennessee offense has yet faced, the injury bug has reared its ugly head in Knoxville. Bray broke his thumb last week against Georgia, he is likely out for four weeks. Former highly-touted (but mostly unproven) quarterback Matt Simms will start in place of Bray. Furthermore, the speedster Hunter is compromised for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. Simms started a few games for the Vols last season, but he was benched in favor of Bray for a reason. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Adding insult to injury, if the aerial attack experienced struggles against Georgia last week, the UGA defenders will feel like a Swedish massage compared to who LSU has roaming in the back seven. Oregon is the only team all season that has been able to make hay against the Tigers’ defense (and the Ducks don’t feature the vertical passing game Tennessee does), and LSU specializes in thwarting the pass.
There are indeed some pieces to be excited about in Knoxville – a good thing because a demanding Tennessee fan base has been growing impatient (especially when lifetime hero Peyton Manning has been out for the NFL’s Indianapolis Colts with a neck injury). Unfortunately, injuries have wiped out two of the Volunteers’ most crucial offensive weapons. Plus, LSU is just too dialed in right now for the Vols to realistically pull the upset. Tennessee’s strength plays right into LSU’s, plus the Tigers are playing great football in every other aspect of the game.
The Tigers have some legitimate challenges on the horizon, with games against ranked Auburn and #2-ranked Alabama in consecutive weeks, so perhaps the only worry for a Baton Rouge-supporter might be that LSU gets caught looking past Tennessee. Yet head coach Les Miles and his staff know that UT has some talent and Neyland Stadium is a crazy road locale, it is unlikely LSU won’t be focused on the task at hand.
It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see backup QB Simms make errors against such a strong “D”, and it seems in 2011 every time a team makes just a little mistake, LSU capitalizes on it.
Look for the Auburn Tigers to be playing an unbeaten team of the same moniker next week.
Score Prediction: LSU 28, Tennessee 10
Over/Under Prediction: 38
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