Week 5 Odds: Volunteers vs Bulldogs
The Tennessee Volunteers (2-1) start their SEC schedule against the Georgia Bulldogs (2-1). As always, come back to Cappers Picks every week, as we provide free CFB predictions all season long.
Georgia is already 0-1 in the conference after losing to South Carolina (38-35). The Bulldogs bounced back last week with a win over Troy (66-0). Tennessee lost last week against Oklahoma (34-10).
College Football Week 5 Picks
Tennessee vs Georgia
When: Saturday, Sept 27th 2014 at 12:00pm ET
Where: Sanford Stadium
TV: ESPN
NCAA Football Week 5 Gambling Line: Georgia –17
NCAA Football Week 5 Gambling O/U Line: 55.5 Points
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Tennessee looked bad in their first real test of the season last week. The Volunteers only gained 313 yards on offense. Justin Worley completed less than 50% of his passes for 201 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s.
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Georgia has a strong defense that can force turnovers. So far this season the Bulldogs defensive unit has allowed 19.7 PPG (28th) and 318.0 YPG (25th). They’ve also played two tough games already.
The Volunteers offense isn’t going to scare the Bulldogs at home and Worley is likely to have a multiple turnover game again. Tennessee would be wise to put the ball into the hands of Jalen Hurd.
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Hurd leads the team with 48 carries for 209 yards and 1 TD. Last week he was one of the lone bright spots on the offense, as he gained 6.9 YPC on 14 carries against an overpowering defensive line.
As a team Tennessee only gained 112 yards on 33 carries last week. Tennessee is averaging 130.0 RYPG (98th) and 240.3 PYPG (62nd). Don’t expect them to meet those numbers on Saturday.
Georgia is only giving up 103.7 RYPG (25th) and 214.3 PYPG (45th) on defense. The defense struggled on the road against the Gamecocks, but they looked good in week 1 against Clemson at home.
I expect the Bulldogs to run the football all over the Volunteers. Tennessee has done well against the run to start the season, but Georgia comes into this match-up averaging 304.0 RYPG (13th).
Todd Gurley leads Georgia with 402 rushing yards and 4 TD’s on 41 carries, but Sony Michel has also been impressive. Michel has rushed the football 20 times on the year for 206 yards and 3 TD’s.
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NCAAF Week 5 Betting Trends:
- TENN are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Over is 20-8-1 in TENN last 29 games in September.
- UGA are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
- UGA are 1-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 9-2 in UGA last 11 home games.
- TENN are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Free NCAAF Pick: Tennessee vs. Georgia
These two teams play each other every year and Georgia has won the last four meetings. However, only one of those wins was by double digits and in those four games the teams have gone 2-2 ATS.
Tennessee has covered the last two years as double-digit dogs in both match-ups. I expect that trend to end this weekend. Georgia is way better offensively and should be able to crush the Volunteers.
4* Play On Georgia Bulldogs –17 (-110)
Georgia has played a tough schedule whereas Tennessee hasn’t. The Volunteers were dominated by the Cornhuskers last week on the road and I expect a similar result on the road against Georgia.
Check out our Updated College Football Week 5 Odds.
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