Utes vs Beavers NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The Oregon State Beavers went into BYU last week without their quarterback and came out looking as good as they’ve looked all season. OSU has been one of the biggest surprises in all of college football this season, and the Utah Utes will try and surprise the nation with an upset victory in Corvallis this Saturday.
No. 11 USC Trojans (4-1) vs Washington Huskies (3-1)
Saturday October 20, 2012
Reser Stadium, CORVALLIS, OR
10:30 PM ET
Moneyline: Oregon State -380, Utah +290 Bookmaker
Spread: Oregon State -10.5
O/U: 47
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Utah Utes
The Utah Utes have struggled on offense all season, which doesn’t exactly spell success against one of the nation’s better defensive teams. If the Utes want to get going, they must get running back John White involved early. The senior tailback has 89 carries on the season for just 345 yards and one touchdown.
Defensively, this team has been mediocre. They haven’t been great at stopping the pass or the run, but with Oregon State’s one-dimensional passing game, they should be able to hone in on the quarterback.
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One of the only true bright sides for the Utes all season has been their punter Sean Sellwood. The senior has a nation-leading 48.3 yards-per-punt average. A stat like this flies under the radar, but by not allowing OSU a short field, they’ll be doing themselves a huge favor.
The thing that Utah has in their advantage week after week is their size. They’re as big up front as it gets in the Pac-12, and if they can get to the Beavers’ quarterback, they’ll be able to rattle a player who has virtually one game of experience in his entire college career.
Oregon State Beavers
The Oregon State Beavers went into a tough BYU environment last week with a first-time starter at quarterback, as Sean Mannion is out indefinitely. There were many questions surrounding Cody Vaz, but the junior answered them all with a great performance. Completing 20 of his 32 passes, Vaz threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
The Beavers bring more than just momentum into their Saturday night game with the Utes—they bring confidence. If Vaz had come out and struggled against BYU, or if the team had abandoned the throw to ease his transition, there would legitimate concerns regarding the upcoming game plan. This team may only score 27.2 points per game, but their passing game is downright elite. They’ve thrown for 338 yards per game (8th in the country), and at this point, you have to believe whether it’s Vaz or Mannion, that trend will continue.
That being said, one good performance doesn’t mean anything in a sport where every week can be make-or-break for your season. The Utes haven’t been great, but they showed USC on national T.V. two weeks back why they can’t be ignored. Defensive lineman Star Lotulelei gave Matt Barkley serious trouble in the first quarter, and if he and the rest of the line can do that Saturday, Vaz is in for a long night. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Beavers are attempting to start their season 6-0 for the first time in more than a century, while the Utes are struggling just to stay relevant within their own division. Oregon State’s defense is what has given them the No. 8 ranking in the country, so expect this matchup to be have less offense despite their success in the passing game.
If all things go according to plan, the Beavers will leave Reser Stadium undefeated, but like last week, the game may be in question until Oregon State is able to pull away late.
Trends
Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Utes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Utes last 5 games in October.
Under is 5-1 in Beavers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-1 in Beavers last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
O/U Pick: Under 47
Score Prediction: Oregon St. 24 – Utah 14
