Trojans vs Bruins NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The USC Trojans and the UCLA Bruins have a rich, storied rivalry, and while the series has been completely dominated by the Trojans in recent years, the Bruins are hoping to change that trend November 17. USC has fallen from grace this season, as they’ve dropped 16 spots from their preseason ranking, while UCLA has surprisingly climbed the ladder of the BCS to No. 17. Both teams are fighting for a spot in the Pac-12 championship game.
No. 18 USC Trojans (7-3) vs No. 17 UCLA Bruins (8-2)
Saturday November 17, 2012
Rose Bowl, PASADENA, CALIF.
3:05 PM ET
Moneyline: USC -165, UCLA + 145 from GTBets.eu
Spread: USC -3.5
O/U: 65.5
USC Trojans
The USC Trojans have lost two of their last three games, but they’re coming off a 38-17 victory over the Arizona State Sun Devils. Despite a dominant second half against ASU, Matt Barkley was uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball. UCLA’s passing defense has been awful this year, so if Barkley can keep the ball away from the Bruins, he should have a much better performance than he did last week.
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The Trojans are extremely even with the Bruins when it comes to points. They average 36.9 points per contest compared to UCLA’s 37.7, and they allow their opponents to score 23.5, which is slightly better than the Bruins’ 24.7. Where they hold the advantage is on the talent within the roster. Wide receivers Marquis Lee and Robert Woods will challenge the UCLA secondary, which has given up 266.4 yards per game through the air.
The Trojans lost their chance at a national championship early in the year, but their hopes of a BCS bowl berth are still very much alive. A win this weekend places USC in the Pac-12 championship, where they’ll face off against the winner of the Pac-12 North division.
UCLA Bruins
The UCLA Bruins were embarrassed in last year’s matchup against USC, as they lost in an awful 50-0 contest. Their return to the national spotlight has been underway all season, and they’re hoping to keep it going this week with what would be their biggest win of the year. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Bruins have averaged 44 points since their unexpected loss at Cal, and those are the kinds of numbers they’re going to need this week to keep up with USC. The air attack may be in the Trojans’ favor, but UCLA has the ground game going for them.
Johnathan Franklin is going to be the key player for the Bruins in week 12. The one-time Heisman hopeful has only been held under 100 yards three times this season, and he will be the player who can take the pressure off of UCLA’s passing attack if he plays well. USC’s rushing defense has been subpar so far, and Franklin will look to take advantage.
Despite losing to the Trojans in lopsided fashion in 2011, the Bruins went to the Pac-12 championship because USC was still in the midst of a postseason bowl ban. This time the Trojans are eligible, and they’re hungry to get back to the game they missed last year. This game should be a high-scoring contest that is much closer than the one that took place a season ago, but USC should show that they have the more talented roster, and that they deserve a shot at a Pac-12 title game.
Trends
Over is 5-0 in Trojans last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Bruins last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-0 in Bruins last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
O/U Pick: Over 65.5
Score Prediction: USC 41 – UCLA 34
