Fighting Illini vs Wolverines NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The No. 25 Michigan Wolverines may be matched up with the Illinois Fighting Illini this weekend, but you have to wonder if the team from Ann Arbor isn’t looking ahead at their game next week with the Michigan State Spartans.
Illinois (2-4) vs No.25 Michigan Wolverines (3-2)
Saturday October 13, 2012
Michigan Stadium, ANN ARBOR, MI
3:30 PM ET
Moneyline: Michigan -2400, Illinois +1400 from JustBet.cx
Spread: Michigan -23.5
O/U: 49.5
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The Illini are just 2-4 on the year (0-2 in Big Ten play), so if the Wolverines are focused, they should come out and make this game an ugly one early.
Illinois Fighting Illini
The Illinois Fighting Illini are a team heading in the wrong direction. Having lost their first two conference matchups by a combined score of 66-21, the team’s only two victories on the year come from MAC and Big South opponents. Coming off a 31-14 loss to the Wisconsin Badgers, the Illini are fighting for pride at this point in the season.
Illinois’ biggest threat on offense is slowly becoming wideout Ryan Lankford. He has 25 catches, 362 yards and five touchdowns on the year—the team as a whole has only 10 scores through the air.
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The team’s offense has struggled to move the ball and score all year long, so they’re going to need their biggest performance to date to keep up with a Michigan team that averages 31.6 points per contest.
Their only real hope this weekend comes down to whether or not Denard Robinson plays well, but more specifically, whether or not the Wolverines are looking past an easy opponent toward their marquee matchup next weekend.
Michigan Wolverines
The Michigan Wolverines may be just 3-2 on the season, but they’ve handled the teams they were supposed to beat with relative ease up to this point. This is a good trend going into this weekend, as the Illinois Fighting Illini are absolutely a team they are supposed to beat.
Michigan is back in the national rankings, and while they’re not the team many thought they were going to be this season, they are still capable of big-time performances. The question is, are they trust-worthy when it comes to buying into such a large spread?
The wildcard week in and week out is senior quarterback Denard Robinson. The 6’0”, 190-pound man behind center can make plays with both his arm and his legs, but his throwing game has been fairly inconsistent. The good news for Wolverines fans is that even if his passing game is off, he is as big of a threat—if not bigger—in the ground attack. He leads the team in rushing this season, and he can make plays out of broken scrambles on a regular basis. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Defensively, linebacker Desmond Morgan is going to be a big part of stopping the Illini spread attack. He has at least six tackles in every game this season, and he is a big part of the reason the Wolverines have been decent on defense.
But as important as defense is for Michigan, this game is going to come down to whether or not Illinois can contain Robinson. If they can, Michigan is going to struggle from start to finish. If they can’t, this game shouldn’t even be close.
Trends
Wolverines are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less tha 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Wolverines are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between both teams in Michigan.
Over is 5-1 in Wolverines last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-0 in Fighting Illini last 4 games overall.
O/U Pick: Over 49.5
Score Prediction: Michigan 40 – Illinois 10
