Sun Devils vs Beavers NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The Oregon State Beavers’ magical run came to an end last weekend, but despite a three-point loss to the Washington Huskies, they remain the No. 11 team in the country this week. The team from Corvallis plays host Saturday to the Arizona State Sun Devils, who are also coming off of a tightly contested loss.
Arizona State (5-3) vs. No. 11 Oregon State Beavers (6-1)
Saturday November 3, 2012
Reser Stadium, CORVALLIS, ORE.
7:30 PM ET
Moneyline: Oregon State -185, Arizona State +165 from GTBets.eu
Spread: Oregon State -4.5
O/U: 54.5
Arizona State Sun Devils
Despite a decent 5-3 record on the year, the Arizona State Sun Devils are bringing two straight losses into their matchup with the Oregon State Beavers. The team lost a lopsided game against the Oregon Ducks on Oct. 18 and they followed it up with a tough 45-43 loss against UCLA. Momentum is not on their side, but they have a solid offense and a solid defense that can flip the switch with one good performance.
CLICK TO GRAB OUR Expert CFB Picks for 2012 NCAA FOOTBALL Betting!
Linebacker Brandon Magee is going to be a crucial part of the Sun Devils’ defense this weekend when it comes to stopping Oregon State’s prolific passing game. Arizona State gives up the third-fewest passing yards in the nation, and Magee has sacks in three games in a row. He is fourth in the Pac-12 in tackles per game.
Offensively, the passing game has been more productive this season than the ground game, but running back Marion Grice has stepped up as of late and could be a big-time contributor come Saturday. Oregon State’s run defense is among the best in the league, but a balanced attack could open up holes for the Sun Devils in all facets of the attack.
Oregon State Beavers
The Oregon State Beavers were on top of the world heading into their matchup with the Washington Huskies last week, but the decision to bring back quarterback Sean Mannion from injury brought the team crashing back down to earth. Mannion threw four interceptions, taking away the one advantage that the Beavers have on offense—the pass. Oregon State ranks just 115th in the nation in rushing, as they average just 108.4 yards per game. Without any running game to speak of, the team has relied on the passing game, and Mannion wasn’t able to produce last week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
If you’re looking for optimism here, look no further than the fact that this team lost by just three points despite one of the worst quarterback performances of the week in all of college football. Their defense held Washington to 20 points and forced an interception of their own. Replacement quarterback Cody Vaz will be back against Arizona State, and if he can perform well, Oregon State will be on the right track.
The key matchup in this game is going to be Oregon State’s passing attack versus the Sun Devils’ pass defense. If Arizona State can force the Beavers into another poor passing performance, the game should be theirs. However, the team from Tempe hasn’t faced a team with the passing prowess of Oregon State, and they’ve managed to give up 88 points over their past two contests.
With Vaz back in the lineup, the home team should be able to get their points, and as long as the passing game returns to its usual form, the Sun Devils are going to have a tough time containing the attack.
Trends
Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Beavers are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Sun Devils last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Beavers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-1 in Beavers last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Beavers last 5 conference games.
O/U Pick: Under 54.5
Score Prediction: Oregon St. 30 – Arizona St. 24
