Crimson Tide vs Volunteers NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The No. 1 seeded Alabama Crimson Tide are set to travel to Tennessee to defend their ranking in the first weekend where the BCS is officially a part of college football. Neyland Stadium isn’t exactly the home-field advantage it once was when the Volunteers were steamrolling opponents left and right, so unless they can shock the nation, Alabama’s title hopes should be well and alive after week eight.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) vs Tennessee Volunteers (3-3)
Saturday October 20, 2012
Neyland Stadium, KNOXVILLE, TN
7:00 PM ET
Moneyline: Alabama -1400, Tennessee +900 from Sportsbook.ag
Spread: Alabama -20.5
O/U: 56
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Alabama Crimson Tide
The Alabama Crimson Tide are one of only a select few in college football whose fate is truly in their own hands. Defensively, this team is as good as it gets. They allow the fewest points per game in the country (7.5), they allow the fewest passing yards in the country (125.8) and they allow the fewest rushing yards in the country (55.3). There’s a common theme here, which makes it fitting that the Tide defense allows the fewest total yards of any team in the entire country (181.2).
This team isn’t one of the cliché defense-only teams from down South, either.
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Their offense has taken advantage of weaker opponents thus far, and they’re averaging more than 40 points per game because of it. Yes, it’s true that their level of competition has been lacking, but they’ve done exactly what they’re supposed to do to lesser opponents—they’ve downright dominated them.
Next week begins the toughest stretch of their schedule, so as long as they don’t get caught looking ahead, they should escape Knoxville unscathed.
Tennessee Volunteers
The rivalry between the Crimson Tide and the Tennessee Volunteers is a rich one in the SEC, but the team from Knoxville hasn’t been able to step up the past two seasons. The team has yet to face a defense with the prowess of Alabama this season, which makes it hard to believe this year will break that trend.
The Crimson Tide have been shutting down opponents all season long, so the Volunteers are going to need serious production on the offensive side of the ball. Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray has thrown six interceptions in three SEC contests. The team can’t afford to make those kinds of mistakes, as Alabama corner Dee Miller has two interceptions already this season.
The Volunteers toughest defensive opponent to date has been the Florida Gators. The Gators are allowing just 12.3 points per game, yet the Volunteers were able to put up 20 points. The problem, however, is that they allowed 37 points to Florida’s offense, and the game was never really in question once the second half began. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The only way this game seemingly swings in Tennessee’s favor is if Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron turns out to be more banged up than some believe him to be. He’s playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the country right now, but if he hurts his team, it will hurt their chances of coming out ahead in the end.
That being said, Tide coach Nick Saban knows what he’s doing out on the field. If McCarron is good enough to play, he’s good enough to beat the Volunteers and keep Alabama’s BCS title hopes alive.
Trends
- Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
- Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
- Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tennessee.
- Crimson Tide are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
- Over is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
- Over is 5-1 in Volunteers last 6 conference games.
O/U Pick: Over 56
Score Prediction: Alabama 45 – Tennessee 17
