2011 NCAA Football Win Totals

The NCAA 2011 College Football GAMBLING season kicks-off the first weekend in September and in anticipation of how some of the more prominent programs in the country will do this season; the Las Vegas Hilton has released its win total projections for the year.

Team —– Wins

Alabama 10 -120o
Oklahoma 10
Boise St. 10.5 –120o
LSU 9.5 -160u
Stanford 9 -150u
S. Carolina 9 -150u
Arkansas 8.5
Texas A&M 8.5 -120u
Georgia 8.5 -160o
Oklahoma State 8.5
Nebraska 9.5 -140o
Florida State 9.5 -130o
Virginia Tech 10
Wisconsin 9.5 -120o
Arizona St. 8 -120o
West Virginia 9.5 -140u
Florida 7.5 -130u
USC 7.5 -130o
Notre Dame 8.5 -130o
Texas 8
Miss State 7.5 -130u
Miami 8 -120u
Oregon St. 6.5 -130u
TCU 9 -130u
BYU 8.5 -150o
Missouri 7.5 -120o
Michigan State 7.5 -120o
Auburn 6 -155o
Tennessee 6.5 -120o
Penn St 7.5 -155o
North Carolina 8 -130o
Michigan 7 -130o
Utah 7.5 -120u
Nevada 8 -125u
UNLV 2.5 -130o

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At first glance the majority of these projections appear to be on the money, which you would expect from the odds makers, who normally do an uncanny job of sharpening these numbers down an extremely fine line.

However, just like any gambling line there is always value to be found in the numbers if you know where to look.

By handicapping each team’s current strengths and weaknesses along with its past trends and then matching this information up with its regular season schedule, the majority of the above numbers are so close to what the team’s actual total wins will be that it is best to avoid a play on them either way.

What this exercise also does is point out a couple of glaring miscalculations that provide an excellent chance to create a solid return on investment by increasing your wagering units on just a few teams.

Teams going ‘OVER’ their win projection total

Texas A&M- 8.5

The Aggies return 18 starters from last year’s team that went 9-3 in the regular season. They will have a solid running game behind RB Cyrus Grey and their entire defensive secondary remains intact, including CB Coryell Judie, who was an All-Conference selection last year.

Despite beating Nebraska last season, not having the Cornhuskers on the schedule this season eliminates the opportunity for another loss.

Nebraska -9.5

Everyone knows that Nebraska will once again be loaded with talent, but the changeover to the Big Ten should actually work in the Cornhuskers favor when it comes to total wins. Their four non-conference games can be penciled in as W’s and the only major challenge in the conference is a trip to Madison to play Wisconsin.

This allows one more slip up either at home to Ohio State or on the road at Penn State to still come away with 10 wins. Vegas must know something as well since it added some extra juice (-140) on the ‘over’.

Teams staying ‘UNDER their win projection total

Oklahoma State- 8.5

The Cowboys are coming off one of their best seasons in years with an 11-2 record overall and a 6-2 record in the Big 12. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

They should be fine on offense with the return of QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon, but a real concern is a defense that was suspect at time last season and will be tested even more given this year’s schedule.

Oklahoma State cannot overlook road games against Tulsa, Texas, Texas Tech, and Missouri and could even slip up in its home opener against Arizona. Pencil in losses to Texas A&M on the road and Oklahoma at home and this team could struggle just to get to eight wins.

Tennessee- 6.5

This program has fallen on some hard times as of late, but is still a year or two away from turning the corner. The Volunteers followed up a 7-5 regular season record in 2009 with a 6-6 record in 2010.

They finally have some stability at the helm with Derek Dooley entering his second season as head coach, but the team’s recruiting efforts still took a hit over the past few years.

Tennessee does have 14 starters back from last season and should be able to beat the teams it is supposed to, but the problem is that number only adds up to five. To get to seven wins the Volunteers will have to avoid a slip up in one of those games and pull-off two upsets in the most competitive conference in college football.