NCAA Free Picks – Virginia vs Duke
Virginia (14-1) has not lost since their 3rd game of the season and this game is a HUGE test against a Duke (13-2) team that they have lost to 7 straight times and 14 straight times at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Venue/ Stadium: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
Time/Date: 9 PM EST Thursday, January 12, 2012
NCAAB Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: OFF
Spread (ATS): Duke -9.5
Over/Under: 128.5
No. 17 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 6 Duke Blue Devils Preview
The Cavaliers are off to their best start since the early 80’s when a guy named Ralph Sampson was on the team. NCAAB lines have Duke as big 9.5-home favorites with a total of 128.5.
In their last games Duke got over their upset loss to Temple by beating Georgia Tech 81-74 and Virginia beat Miami 52-51.
This season Duke is 6-9 ATS with an O/U record of 10-5 and Virginia is 7-3 ATS with an O/U record of 1-9.
Duke can light up the scoreboard ranking 8th in the nation in scoring and they will be facing a solid defensive team in Virginia that is only giving up an average of 50.5 ppg. The Cavaliers will have to win this game with their defense since they only rank 228th in the nation in scoring.
The Cavaliers will need a good game from reigning ACC Player of the Week Mike Scott (16.9 ppg 8.9 rpg), who leads the team in both scoring and rebounding.[soliloquy id=”82219″]
Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski changed his starting lineup for the Georgia Tech game and may keep Quinn Cook and Miles Plumlee as starters, as it seemed to give them a boost against Tech.
Miles and Mason Plumlee are the leading rebounders for the Blue Devils and Scott will need help keeping these guys off the glass. Not only are the Cavaliers not a high scoring team, but they also rank 231st in the nation in rebounds per game.
The Duke Guards of Austin Rivers and F Ryan Kelly are all shooting at least 40% from beyond the 3-point line and Virginia has to play good perimeter D and now give these guys open looks from deep.
Scott and Joe Harris (12.3 ppg) are the only 2 players for Virginia that are averaging in double figures and the Cavaliers must slow down the game and make this a low scoring affair, as if they get into a shootout they will lose.
Betting Trends
Virginia is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games, 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games, and they have an Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Duke is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and they have an Over record of 10-4 in their last 14 home games.
Duke has covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games facing Virginia.
Jason’s Pick: Virginia is a good team, but I do not think they have any chance to beat Duke in their house. The Blue Devils have too many scoring options and they will win this game and even cover the 9.5-point spread. The O/U is a tough call, but will have to go with the Over since Duke can fill it up.
