College Basketball Lock Alert – Pepperdine vs. #10 Gonzaga
Thursday, January 21: 9:00 p.m.
After losing several players off of last year’s Sweet 16 team, it was assumed that No. 10 ranked Gonzaga would struggle in 2010. Apparently, no one told the Bulldogs, who will look to try and stay hot in conference play in Thursday night’s NCAAB Betting Odds.
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With a big front line, the Zags dominate the low post, and have one of the highest powered offenses in college basketball.
Here are some NCAA Basketball Betting Trends which may impact this game:
Pepperdine: 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games
Pepperdine: 1-4 ATS on the road
Pepperdine: Total has gone OVER in 3 of their last 4 games
Gonzaga: 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games
Gonzaga: Total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 games
Leading the way is freshman Elias Harris, a guy who’s totally come off the radar in his first year in Spokane. Harris is leading the Zags in both points (15.5) and rebounding (7.9) and is quietly playing himself onto the radar of NBA scouts. Center Robert Sacre also averages double-digits, while a deep backcourt including Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray balance out the Bulldogs. On the season, Gonzaga is ranked 12th in college basketball, shooting a staggering 49 percent from the field.
As for their opponents Thursday, there’s no nice way to put it, Pepperdine has been awful this year. However, things appear to be turning around, as they’ve won their first three games in West Coast Conference play, and are tied atop the standings with Gonzaga. 
Pepperdine’s best player is versatile 6’3 sophomore Keion Bell. Bell does a little bit of everything for the Waves, not only leading the team in scoring and assists, but is also an excellent rebounder for his size, averaging five per game. Junior forward Mychel Thompson is Pepperdine’s best player inside, averaging 12 points per game.
The Waves biggest problem, which could rear its head Thursday night, is a questionable defense. On the year, they give up 73 points per game, and allow opponents to shoot 47 percent from the field. Both are ranked in the 200’s in college basketball.
It seems like simple math really, one of the best shooting percentage teams in college basketball (Gonzaga) is playing a team which allows one of the worst percentages on defense. Is there any reason to think the Zags shouldn’t be comfortable favorites in this one?
It’s also important to note that Gonzaga has been playing great basketball of late, winning eight of their last nine games. The only loss in that stretch was to the No. 5 ranked Duke Blue Devils, a team that’s playing as well as anyone in college basketball.
With Gonzaga at home, and playing as well as they have been of late, it shouldn’t be surprising seeing them as favorites in Thursday’s betting odds.
Expect them to not only win, but to cover the point spread as well. And come Friday, they’ll be alone atop the West Coast Conference standings after defeating Pepperdine in Spokane.
OUR Pick: Gonzaga by 12
