Spurs vs Heat NBA Final Picks
There was definitely no hangover for the Spurs as they had one of the best first halfs in NBA playoff history in game three. They have a little back in the third but a strong 4th quarter essentially maintained that lead.[ad-4468020]
San Antonio Spurs (2-1) vs. Miami Heat (1-2)
Thursday June 12
American Airlines Arena – Miami, FL
Moneyline: Miami -230, San Antonio +190
Spread: Miami -5
They have retaken home advantage so to speak and looked great in doing so.
The pressure is definitely on Miami heading into game 4.
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The star for San Antonio was Kawhi Leonard. His offense can be a critical factor for San Antonio because he is also spending a ton of energy trying to limit LeBron on defense too.
However, as the results from G3 prove when they can get a big contribution on offense too it makes a huge difference. His results in G1 and G2 were only fair so we will have to see if he can keep it up.
The Spurs romp and the number goes up. That doesn’t seem right does it? This is one of those market plays as much as anything as the oddsmakers looking to be expecting a zig-zag response to G3.
Hard to blame them but after what we just saw it is hard not to like the Spurs as the underdog.
After a close emotional win in G2 Miami laid a huge egg at home in G3. The Spurs blitzed them and for the first half they just couldn’t stop anything San Antonio was trying to do. Things stabilized in the second half but by that time the damage was done.
Now they are in a tough spot needing not only a win in G4 but also showing that their defensive lapses have been somewhat corrected.
Chris Bosh might have made all of his shots in G3 but was essentially a non-factor in the game. The team shot better than 50% for the game yet still lost by almost 20 points…at home no less.
The stat that jumps out at me is that James and Wade had more turnovers than missed shots.
Those two, who have the ball in their hands almost all of the time, have to tighten up their decision making.
Building on the above I don’t see how the line on this game gets extended after G3.
This is probably awesome proof of market effects so you have to be careful in not being overly influenced by the line when handicapping.
Sure Miami as a short favourite is a good bet under almost any circumstances.
Based on the three games so far they might be overmatched this year.
Spread prediction: San Antonio +5
Total prediction: Over
Score prediction: San Antonio 102 – Miami 99