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Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Bobcats
Tonight, 7:00 p.m. ET
NBA basketball betting favorite: Bobcats -6.5
Total: 195.5
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When you’re slipping in the Eastern Conference playoff race and losers of five of eight games, there’s nothing like a home game against the Toronto Raptors to get you bouncing on your feet again.
I have to think that’s the feeling among the Charlotte Bobcats, who hope to rebound after entering the All-Star break with a 12-point loss to Chicago. The lowly Raptors, who are 5-23 on the road this season, are also 23rd in the NBA in scoring defense. That means the Bobcats’ 28th-ranked offense may finally have a chance to put some points on the board tonight. 
Though Gerald Wallace is suffering through one of his most uninspired seasons in years, Stephen Jackson has been fairly solid for Charlotte. The volatile guard scored at least 20 points seven times in his last 10 games entering the All-Star break.
The Raps are going absolutely nowhere this season and are simply playing out the string, hoping for a high draft pick or to trade that pick for a big return. They’ve lost four of their last five games. Unlike some of the NBA’s plucky bottom dwellers, the Raps aren’t a strong team against the spread. They’re 24-30-2 ATS on the year. At least Andrea Bargnani’s offensive explosion (21.9 points per game) and DeMar DeRozan’s continued growth as a sophomore player are positive stories for Toronto in an otherwise miserable season.
Charlotte is clearly the better team in this matchup. The Bobcats have won five of the last seven meetings and the Raps are 1-7 ATS over their last eight games against Charlotte. But does a 6.5-point spread seem a bit wide? It makes me nervous. The last four Raptors/Bobcats games have been decided by six, five, two and four points. The Bobcats are better but I’m not sure they’re so much better that they’ll beat Toronto by a touchdown. The road team has beaten the spread in eight of the last 11 meetings between these two clubs.
I like Charlotte to win – but not to cover.
Trends:
Under is 7-2 in TOR last 9 overall.
TOR are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Over is 23-9 in TOR last 32 Tue. games.
Over is 6-2 in CHAR last 8 overall.
CHAR are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
TOR are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Prediction: Bobcats 100, Raptors 97
