Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Preview & Pick
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Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
Tonight, 7:00 p.m. ET
NBA betting favorite: Heat -5.5
Total: 205
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Even though the Heat saw their eight-game winning streak snapped this past Sunday, it’s too early to declare their surge “over” for now. They were dominant for the eight-game run prior to the loss; their defeat also came by just three points to the Celtics in Boston. So bettors have to consider giving Miami a mulligan tonight, especially since the Heat are still 6-2 against the spread over their last eight.
We can’t know for sure – but Miami’s latest success could be more sustainable than what we saw from the Heat earlier this season. The team seems to be gelling. Maybe Dwyane Wade’s ankle problems are a blessing? They’ve forced him to take a slight step back and let LeBron James do the primary scoring. Chris Bosh has flown under the radar but is still a mighty fine third option, averaging 18.3 points and 8.1 boards per game.
Miami’s defense continues to be extremely underrated. The Heat are fifth in scoring defense, first in opposing field goal percentage and first opposing three-point percentage. 
You’d think that the rather bland Indiana Pacers would be intimidated by Miami’s Big Three and stellar “D,” but don’t be so sure. The Pacers are one of the NBA’s hottest teams, 7-1 since Frank Vogel took over from Jim O’Brien as head coach. They’re also 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games.
Getting Danny Granger going wasn’t the problem; he’s been the one fairly consistent offensive threat for Indiana this season. But Vogel seems to be making headway with Darren Collison, who has 15-plus points in three of his last four contests, and especially Roy Hibbert.
Hibbert is the real key. He looked like he was becoming a premiere NBA big man early this season before tanking. Yet he seems reborn under Vogel. In the eight games under his new coach, Hibbert has scored in double figures seven times, topped 20 points three times and tallied four double-doubles. He’s back.
The Heat are an awfully tough opponent for Indiana to topple but I like the Pacers more than I like most teams against Miami on any given night. They’ve scored at least 100 points in every game under Vogel and are playing with sky-high confidence. Plus – they’re 5.5 point home underdogs. This feels like a solid upset play.
Trends:
Over is 7-1 in MIA last 8 vs. NBA Central.
MIA are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 Tue. games.
Over is 9-2 in MIA last 11 road games.
IND are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 Tue. games.
Under is 9-4 in IND last 13 home games.
Underdog is 22-6-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.
Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Indiana.
Prediction: Pacers 103, Heat 100
