Mavs vs Spurs NBA Handicapping
Gregg Popovich has been around the block enough times to know all about the ups and downs of an NBA season. But even Pops must be a puzzled, and maybe even a little frustrated, by his team’s play since Tony Parker went down with an ankle injury on the first day of the month.
Dallas Mavericks (30-33) at San Antonio Spurs (49-16)
Thursday, March 14
AT&T Center, San Antonio
8 p.m. EST
Spread – Spurs -7.5 at WagerWeb
Total – 205
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For a while it looked like Parker’s loss would be no big deal. On the night the PG got hurt, the Spurs waxed Sacramento by 28.
Then they showed no mercy against Detroit, winning by 39; and Chicago, winning by 18. No Parker?
No problem.
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Then the rains came. San Antonio somehow lost to struggling Portland by 30 points. At home. They followed that up with a statement-game win over Oklahoma City, also at home, before laying an egg the next night in Minnesota, going down by 24.
What’s surprising about the two recent blowout losses is that it doesn’t appear that the absence of Parker has been the main culprit. In both losses the problem has been rebounding, as the Timberwolves and Trail Blazers outboarded the Spurs by a combined total of 87-68.
Which brings us to tonight and the Dallas Mavericks, whose season was sabotaged from the beginning due to Dirk Nowitzki’s knee injury.
The Mavs have put together a tidy little 4-game winning streak, the last 3 of which (Detroit, Minnesota and Milwaukee) have come on the road. [ad-6571516]
And now the playoffs, thought for most of the year to be out of the question, may be within reach – especially considering Kobe Bryant’s injury last night and the putrid way the Jazz have been playing of late.
Dallas’s mini-surge (7 wins in the last 10 games) has been accomplished without its top defender, Shawn Marion, who is nursing a sore left calf. Sub Jae Crowder has filled in nicely, including a solid 14-point, 8-rebound effort in Milwaukee.
After the San Antonio game, the Mavericks’ long-shot run at one of the final playoff spots in the Western Conference will benefit from the tailwind of 8 home games in the next 9.
Just getting to the dance would be a major accomplishment for the Mavs, even if it results in a quick first-round exit at the hands of the Spurs or Thunder.
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Tough one here, considering the Spurs’ recent schizophrenia. The last time these teams went at it, San Antonio won a high-scoring game and the over easily carried off a 204.5 number.
With the exception of the T-Wolves game, which came on the road and in the second of a back-to-back set, SA has been able to score in triple digits since Parker went down.
Avoid the side and play the OVER here.
