NASCAR Sprint Cup Toyota/Save Mart 350 Preview and Prediction

2013 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions

NASCAR’s Sprint Cup series will take a break from its traditional oval tracks this week to run the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on the road course at Sonoma Raceway. Sunday’s race is scheduled to start at 3 p.m. and it will be broadcast nationally on FOX.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Toyota/Save Mart 350 Preview and Prediction
Race: Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway
Date: Sunday, June 23, 2013
Time: 3 p.m. (ET)
Broadcast: FOX
Odds: Bovada

Greg Biffle added his name to the list of winners in this year’s Sprint Cup series with a victory last Sunday at Michigan. Kevin Harvick ended-up second and Martin Truex Jr. finished a surprising third.

The following is a closer look at our favorite, contender, and longshot picks for this Sunday’s race with odds provided by Sportsbook.

The Favorite (odd of less than 10/1)

As one of the elder statesmen in NASCAR’s Sprint Cup series, there are certain tracks when Jeff Gordon will add some significant value to his odds. He has been opened as a +700 second-favorite to win this race and for good reason. While the No.24 car’s current form actually saps some value from this pick, Gordon’s past performance in this race more than makes up for the loss.

He has five career Sprint Cup victories at this track and a rock-solid average finishing position of 8.6. Recent form at this track has been solid as well with a second-place finish in 2011 and a sixth-place finish in last year’s race. [ad-8757089]

The Contender (odds from 10/1 to 19/1)

Any time you can get longer odds on a Sprint Cup driver that has a ton of experience racing road courses it is worth a small play. Juan Montoya is currently buried in the Sprint Cup standings but he is coming off a second-place finish at Dover just a couple of weeks ago. He has been opened at +1000 to win this week.

While three-straight finishes out of the top-10 in this race saps some of value from these odds, he did win this race in 2007. Montoya followed that up with back-to-back sixth-place finishes in 2008 and 2009.

The Longshot (odds 20/1 or greater)

Carl Edwards does have an earlier Sprint Cup victory this season at Phoenix, but since then he has quietly gone about his way to climb to second-place in the Sprint Cup standings with 507 points on the strength of four other top-five finishes. He has been opened as a +3000 longshot to win this week and while he will never be confused with some of the better road-course drivers in this race there is still some value in the No.99 car’s odds.

Edwards has run this race eight previous times and while he has never won, he finished sixth in 2006, ninth in 2008 and third in 2011, so he is definitely moving in the right direction.

Odds from Bovada

  • Marcos Ambrose 6-1
  • Tony Stewart 8-1
  • Kyle Busch 9-1
  • Jeff Gordon 9-1
  • Jimmie Johnson 9-1
  • Juan Pablo Montoya 9-1
  • Clint Bowyer 12-1
  • Kurt Busch 12-1
  • Kevin Harvick 12-1
  • Brad Keselowski 15-1
  • Carl Edwards 25-1
  • Kasey Kahne 25-1
  • Joey Logano 30-1
  • Martin Truex Jr. 35-1
  • Brian Vickers 35-1
  • Greg Biffle 40-1
  • Ron Fellows 40-1
  • Denny Hamlin 40-1
  • Matt Kenseth 40-1
  • Jamie McMurray 40-1
  • Jacques Villeneuve 40-1
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 60-1
  • Paul Menard 60-1
  • Danica Patrick 60-1
  • Field (All Others) 60-1
  • Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1

*SPRINT Cup Odds provided by Bovada

By Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at David wants to hear from you so please comment below.