2011 Samsung Mobile 500 – Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: It’s a whole new race at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, the first night race of the 2011 season and the first time a Cup race has been run here entirely under the lights, though previous races started in the late afternoon and finished after sunset.
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Race: Samsung Mobile 500 – Texas Motor Speedway
Date: Saturday, April 9, 2011
Time: 7:45 PM EST (scheduled Green Flag)
TV: 7:30 PM EST on FOX
The first night race of the season used to be held in Phoenix, but that track hosted the second race of the 2011 season back in February, right after the Daytona 500. The schedule this week in Texas included practice sessions Thursday and Friday with qualifying Friday afternoon, resulting in teams on various agendas during the past two days’ practices, including managing their tire allotments. Roush-Fenway Racing teammates David Ragan and Carl Edwards will lead the field to green Saturday night.
Safe Bets:
1. Carl Edwards (7/2): As noted above, Edwards qualified P2 for Saturday’s race – at a track where he is the winningest active driver with three Cup wins in 12 starts including the sweep in 2008. Edwards had a dominant car in Friday’s Nationwide race and all four Roush Fords qualified in the top 10 for the Cup race. After leading the points headed into Martinsville last week, Edwards is now second in the standings. 
2. Jimmie Johnson (4/1): Johnson qualified 6th for Saturday’s race on this 1-1/2 miler where he’s posted one win (11/2007) in 12 starts. It’s worth noting that Johnson has finished second in the spring race three years running dating back to 2008 and led 39 laps in this race last year.
Dark Horse:
1. Kurt Busch (20/1): It’s surprising to see a driver of Busch’s caliber listed as a 20/1 long-shot, especially at a track where he’s previously won (11/2009). Busch qualified 10th for Saturday’s race after finishing 4th in this race last year and is currently 4th in Cup points.
Notes:
There are lots of variables headed into Saturday night’s race and it will be fun to see which crew chiefs do the best job of getting their cars dialed in for racing under the lights and adjusting to track conditions throughout the evening.
Odds to Win the Samsung Mobile 500
NASCAR – SAMSUNG MOBILE 500 – Odds To Win
David Ragan 30-1
David Reutimann 50-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Greg Biffle 12-1
Jamie McMurray 30-1
Jeff Burton 30-1
Jeff Gordon 20-1
Jimmie Johnson 6-1
Joey Logano 30-1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30-1
Kasey Kahne 30-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Kyle Busch 8-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-1
Mark Martin 30-1
Martin Truex Jr 60-1
Matt Kenseth 8-1
Paul Menard 75-1
Regan Smith 200-1
Ryan Newman 30-1
Tony Stewart 10-1
Trevor Bayne 500-1
Field (Any Other Driver) 500-1
AJ Allmendinger 100-1
Bobby Labonte 500-1
Brad Keselowski 200-1
Brian Vickers 50-1
Carl Edwards 7-2
Clint Bowyer 15-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 20-1
David Gilliland 1000-1
Becca Gladden is a freelance writer and race handicapper specializing in NASCAR.
