2010 Aarons 499 Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: Racing at Talladega Superspeedway, Alabama’s high-banked 2.66-mile tri-oval, has been described as a 200 mile-per-hour chess match. The Cup Series races twice a year here and last season ‘Dega produced two somewhat unexpected winners: Brad Keselowski in April and Jamie McMurray in November.
Race: Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway
Date: Sunday, April 25, 2010
Time: 1:19 PM EST (scheduled Green Flag)
TV: 1:00 PM EST on FOX
With inclement weather in the forecast for Saturday, the starting grid may end up being set by owner points, putting Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth on the front row, and the race may get underway on a green track, making it even trickier than usual.
Safe Bets:
1. Jeff Gordon (7:1): Gordon has six wins at Talladega, the most of any active driver, and swept the track here in 2007. He also has the most top-5 finishes and has led the most laps. More importantly, Gordon seems to have his mojo back this season and has been close to victory in several races. He was third-fastest in Friday’s early practice and did not take to the track in the second practice.
“All that aggressiveness that I’ve had over the last several weeks, I need to completely change gears for here and go back to being really, really patient,” Gordon said Friday.
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (7:1): There was a time when Dale Jr. had Talladega’s number. He ranks third in career wins (5), behind his father (10), and Jeff Gordon (6), both of whom had many more starts than Jr. He’s also second on the average finish list among drivers with more than two Talladega starts (Kurt Busch is first).
Between 2001-2004, Earnhardt Jr. won four straight ‘Dega races and five of seven. Junior ran in the top 10 in both practices Friday.
Dark Horse:
1. Jamie McMurray (25:1): Though this is typically a GM-friendly track, McMurray put his Roush Ford in Victory Lane last November and followed that up with a win in this year’s Daytona 500, both of which will make him a favorable drafting partner. After Daytona, Jamie Mac’s season has been somewhat rocky, but he still has to be considered a credible threat on the plate tracks.
He was eighth in first practice Friday and, like Gordon, skipped final practice.
Summary: Denny Hamlin, who’s won two of the last three Cup races despite recent knee surgery, was fast in both practices Friday and has the best overall driver rating at Talladega, although he hasn’t won a race here.
Race Date: Sunday, April 25
Location: Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, Ala.
Pre-Race: Noon ET
Green Flag: Approx. 1:19PM ET
TV Coverage: FOX
Track Type: Oval (188 laps)
Odds to win 2010 Aarons 499 Nascar Race
Jimmie Johnson 6/1
Kyle Busch 8/1
Tony Stewart 8/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 10/1
Kurt Busch 11/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Jamie McMurray 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Field 15/1
Jeff Burton 15/1
Kasey Kahne 15/1
Ryan Newman 15/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 15/1
Matt Kenseth 15/1
Mark Martin 18/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Brian Vickers 35/1
Greg Biffle 35/1
Joey Logano 40/1
Brad Keselowski 40/1
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Becca Gladden is a freelance writer and race handicapper specializing in NASCAR.
