2010 AAA Texas 500 Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: Three races left, three drivers still in the running for the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup title. Heading into Texas this weekend, four-time Cup champion Jimmie Johnson still has the points lead, but only by a slim 14-point margin over Denny Hamlin and 38 points over Kevin Harvick.
Race: AAA Texas 500 – Texas Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, November 7, 2010
Time: 3:19 PM EST (scheduled Green Flag)
TV: 3:00 PM EST on ESPN
There was one practice session here on Friday followed by qualifying, but two more practices will take place Saturday.
The top-five in practice Friday were Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, Juan Pablo Montoya, Matt Kenseth, and Elliott Sadler – worth noting for the three Roush-Fenway drivers setting the pace.
Sadler scored the pole with Biffle in P2. Johnson qualified 17th, Hamlin 30th, and Harvick 26th.
Safe Bets:
1. Denny Hamlin (5/1): Hamlin won this race in the spring, which does not necessarily mean he’ll win Sunday, especially from a 30th-place starting spot. But don’t let that qualifying position worry you too much, because Hamlin won the spring race here from 29th place, while Matt Kenseth won in 2002 from 31st. Hamlin has the best average finish at TMS and ran second in this race last year. 
2. Carl Edwards (15/1): Edwards is a three-time winner at TMS, making him the only driver other than Jeff Burton with more than one Texas win (Burton has two). Like Kenseth (below), Edwards is hungry for a win before the 2010 season closes. Carl had the second-fastest car in practice Friday and qualified P3. The car Edwards is piloting ran most recently at Dover in September, where it started tenth and finished fifth.
Dark Horse:
1. Matt Kenseth (22/1): Kenseth is a previous winner here and was fast in practice Friday. He hasn’t won a race yet in 2010 and would certainly like to do so before the year is over. Matt qualified 19th for Sunday’s race. He finished third in this race last year and has three second-place finishes at Texas. Kenseth has the second-best average finish here among active drivers.
Notes: Kyle Busch is running all three races this weekend in Texas and won Friday’s truck race. A polesitter has only won once here in 19 races, while three winners have come from a starting spot of 21st or worse. Jeff Gordon tops the laps-led category. Tony Stewart has the highest driver rating at Texas based on races run since 2005. Jimmie Johnson finished second here in the spring, but 38th last fall.
Odds to Win the AAA Texas 500
Sun, Nov, 7th (3:00pm EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
Johnson, Jimmie 4-1
Edwards, Carl 7-1
Biffle, Greg 7-1
Hamlin, Denny 8-1
Busch, Kyle 9-1
Gordon, Jeff 10-1
Busch, Kurt 10-1
Harvick, Kevin 12-1
Stewart, Tony 12-1
Montoya, Juan 20-1
Kenseth, Matt 20-1
Bowyer, Clint 20-1
McMurray, Jamie 30-1
Burton, Jeff 35-1
Earnhardt Jr., Dale 40-1
Kahne, Kasey 40-1
Lagano, Joey 50-1
Sadler, Elliott 50-1
Newman, Ryan 50-1
Reutimann, David 60-1
Martin, Mark 60-1
Allmendinger, A.J. 60-1
Ragan, David 60-1
Almirola, Aric 100-1
Menard, Paul 100-1
Smith, Regan 300-1
Keselowski, Brad 300-1
Ambrose, Marcos 300-1
Hornish, Jr., Sam 500-1
Speed, Scott 1000-1
Labonte, Bobby 2000-1
Kvapil, Travis 5000-1
Against the Field (any other driver) 500-1
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Becca Gladden is a freelance writer and race handicapper specializing in NASCAR.
