2009 AMP Energy 500 Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Race: AMP Energy 500 at Talladega Superspeedway
Date: Sunday, November 1, 2009
Time: 1:19 PM EST (scheduled Green Flag)
TV: 1:00 PM EST on ABC
Preview: Sunday marks race No. 7 in the ten-week Chase for the 2009 Sprint Cup. It’s hard to believe that only three races remain until a new champion will be crowned. Talladega is frequently deemed the “wildcard” race in the Chase because the high-banked, 2.66-mile tri-oval is known for its overall unpredictability and close finishes, as well as for drivers getting caught up in other people’s messes. It’s not been one of current points leader Jimmie Johnson’s best tracks; the winner here back in April was Brad Keselowski.
Safe Bets:
1. Tony Stewart (+700): Stewart won this race last year while still with Joe Gibbs Racing and ranks second in the average finish among drivers with more than one start. His nine top-5 finishes in 21 starts is also the most among drivers with 30 or fewer Talladega starts, and the fall race dates have been better for him overall than the spring ones.
2. Jeff Gordon (+900): Gordon has the most Talladega wins among active drivers as well as the most top 5s, and he swept the track here in 2007. Though he hasn’t run as well recently at Talladega as he had in the past, Gordon’s third-place spot in the standings suggests he might perform better there this time around. The threat of rain for qualifying Saturday could potentially put Gordon on the inside of row two for the race start, should qualifying be cancelled.
Dark Horse:
1. Ryan Newman (+2500): Newman finished third in the spring race in his first Talladega start for Stewart-Haas Racing, a career best finish for him here. Though he’s never won at Talladega, he posted a win at Daytona in 2008, the other restrictor plate track on the NASCAR circuit.
Summary: As noted, rain may be an issue Saturday, which could affect the starting line-up as well as pit stall selections if time trials are rained out. In addition, this is a rare impound weekend in which cars are not worked on following qualifying on Saturday until after the start of the race. The impound, combined with the possibility of a green track to start the race, could make things even more dicey than usual early on.
NASCAR has also reduced the size of the restrictor plates this weekend, which will have cars even more tightly bunched together than usual throughout the race.
Updated Amp Energy 500 Odds
2009 AMP Energy 500
Race Date: Sunday, Nov. 1
Pre-Race: Noon ET
Green Flag: Approx. 1:19PM ET
TV Coverage: ABC
Track Type: Oval (188 laps)
Brad Keselowski +6000
Brian Vickers +3000
Carl Edwards +2000
Casey Mears +5000
Clint Bowyer +2500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +500
David Ragan +2500
David Reutimann +3000
David Stremme +10000
Denny Hamlin +1200
Elliott Sadler +5000
Greg Biffle +4000
Jamie McMurray +4000
Jeff Burton +3000
Jeff Gordon +1000
Jimmie Johnson +1000
Joey Logano +3000
Juan Pablo Montoya +1500
Kasey Kahne +2500
Kevin Harvick +2000
Kurt Busch +1500
Kyle Busch +700
Marcos Ambrose +5000
Mark Martin +2000
Martin Truex Jr +4000
Matt Kenseth +2500
Michael Waltrip +5000
Reed Sorenson +6000
Ryan Newman +2000
Sam Hornish Jr +6000
Tony Stewart +700
Field (Any Other Driver) +2500
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Becca Gladden is a freelance writer and race handicapper specializing in NASCAR.
