MLB Betting – World Series Game 1 Rangers vs Cardinals Preview & Pick
The Texas Rangers ride into Game 1 of the World Series riding a high after thumping Detroit 15-5 to clinch the American League Division Series in six games on Saturday night. That game showcased what Texas has done best during this postseason: play long ball and pitch out of the bullpen.
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Date: Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Broadcast: FOX
Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com
Money Line: Rangers +109, Cardinals -119
Over/Under: 7.5
ATS Report
Texas Rangers (playoffs: 7-4)
C.J. Wilson (0-2, 8.04)
On Saturday, Nelson Cruz clubbed his sixth homer and drove in his 12th and 13 runs of the series, setting MLB payoff records. The Ranger bullpen combined for 4.1 scoreless innings and, after Alexi Ogando got the “W,” became the second pen ever to win all four games of a playoff series.
So we know that the Rangers carry hot bats into St. Louis and that they’ll be tough to beat with a lead after the fifth inning. But what about the first half of the game? Texas is still waiting for good starting pitching from supposed No. 1 guy C.J. Wilson in these playoffs.
Wilson has allowed 14 runs and six homers in just 15.2 innings during the 2011 postseason. He has to be better. Albert Pujols must be licking his chops about facing the lefty Wilson. Possible saving grace: he had a 2.31 ERA over 18 road starts this season.
St. Louis Cardinals (playoffs: 7-4)
Chris Carpenter (2-0, 3.71)
Thanks to the National League All-Star team, St. Louis gets home field to start the 2011 Fall Classic. Knowing how dangerous it is to let the Rangers pen take over with a lead, the Cards need a big effort from ace Chris Carpenter in Game 1. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
His recent trends suggest he’ll be up to the task. Carpenter has won two straight playoff starts, one of which was an epic, complete-game shutout to eliminate the Philadelphia Phillies. Including the regular season, Carpenter hasn’t lost in nine starts and has lost once in his last 14 outings.
The pick:
Some bettors will get spooked by Carpenter’s 2-6 record and 7.26 ERA over 12 appearances (11 starts) against Texas. However, those stats are skewed; they reflect the beginning of Carp’s career, when he was a raw Toronto Blue Jay. Most of the current Rangers have little to no history with him, though Mike Napoli is 3 for 3 with a homer off him.
Considering that Carpenter is also 32-14 with a 2.58 ERA over 67 regular-season starts at new Busch Stadium, and that Wilson has been awful in these playoffs, the Cards seem like a strong choice for Game 1.
MLB Trends:
TEX are 7-2 in their last 9 playoff games.
Under is 7-2 in TEX last 9 interleague road games.
TEX are 10-3 in their last 13 road games.
STL are 12-4 in their last 16 home games.
Under is 6-2 in STL last 8 World Series games.
STL are 23-9 in their last 32 overall.
Rangers vs Cardinals prediction: Cardinals 6, Rangers 2
Money Line: Cardinals -119
Over/Under: OVER 7.5
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