Boston Red Sox Season Predictions | 2012 Season Betting Preview – Cappers Picks Blog

2012 MLB Team Preview: Boston Red Sox

The need for change was obvious in Beantown and that is just what they got – not so much in the talent on the field but in management.

Odds to Win American League Pennant: +550
Odds to Win World Series: +900

Key Additions:

C Kelly Shoppach INF Nick Punto, OF Ryan Sweeney, RHP Andrew Bailey, RHP Mark Melancon

Key Subtractions:

C Jason Veritek, OF J.D. Drew, INF Jed Lowrie RHP Jonathan Papelbon, LHP Erik Bedard, OF Josh Reddick, RHP Dan Wheeler, RHP Tim Wakefield

The General Manager was replaced – Ben Cherington takes over the role and Terry Francona was unceremoniously let go after Boston`s historic meltdown last year. Bobby Valentine brings a new attitude to Boston – hopes are that a change in culture will kick-start seemingly stagnant organization.

On paper, this team looks largely the same as the one that took the field last year – the Sox were relatively quiet in the offseason. The team is still littered with All-Stars and should contend again in the very tough American League East.

Let`s take a look at the offense to start.

Projected batting order

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury:
.321 BA, .376 OBP, .552 SLG, 32 HR, 105 RBIs in 2011
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia:
.307 BA, .387 OBP, .474 SLG, 21 HR, 91 RBIs in 2011
3. 1B Adrian Gonzalez:
.338 BA, .410 OBP, .548 SLG, 27 HR, 117 RBIs in 2011
4. 3B Kevin Youkilis:
.258 BA, .373 OBP, .459 SLG, 17 HR, 80 RBIs in 2011
5. DH David Ortiz:
.309 BA, .398 OBP, .554 SLG, 29 HR, 96 RBIs in 2011
6. LF Carl Crawford:
.255 BA, .289 OBP, .405 SLG, 11 HR, 56 RBIs in 2011
7. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia:
.235 BA, .288 OBP, .450 SLG, 16 HR, 56 RBIs in 2011
8. RF Ryan Sweeney:
.265 BA, .346 OBP, .341 SLG, 1 HR, 25 RBIs in 2011
9. SS Mike Aviles:
.255 BA, .289 OBP, .409 SLG, 7 HR, 39 RBIs in 2011

The Red Sox are a team, that despite the late season struggles, finished the 2011 season as the top offensive team in the Majors. Offense is certainly not a problem. Adrian Gonzalez led the Bigs in batting average, RBIs and on base percentage last year and is as solid an offensive threat as there is in the game.

He anchors one of the two or three best Top-6 in the Major leagues this season. Carl Crawford was disappointing last year and Jarrod Saltalamacchia looked like a rookie at times. They will be better this year – they just have to be.

There is no Jason Veritek or J.D. Drew this year. Ryan Sweeney and Cody Ross aren`t that much of an upgrade but they aren`t terrible either. The bottom of the order isn`t all that scary but you can bet that some tinkering will be done as the season rolls along.

Now to the pitching!

Projected rotation

1. Jon Lester, 15-9, 3.47 ERA in 2011
2. Josh Beckett, 13-7, 2.89 ERA in 2011
3. Clay Buchholz, 6-3, 3.48 ERA in 2011
4. Daniel Bard, 2-9, 3.33 ERA in 2011
5. Alfredo Aceves, 10-2, 2.61 ERA in 2011

Projected bullpen

Closer: Andrew Bailey, 24/26 saves, 3.24 ERA in 2011
RH setup man: Mark Melancon, 2.78 ERA in 2011
LH setup man: Franklin Morales, 3.69 ERA in 2011
[dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Boston`s Top 3 starters are solid and the acquisition of Andrew Bailey to close out games will allow Daniel Bard to get a crack at the starting rotation. Although the Sox look good on paper in their starting rotation, they are sill linked to almost every pitcher in free agency or on the trade block. As of now, Boston looks set but don`t be surprised to see them make a move for a fourth of fifth starter.

Jonathan Papelbon moved on forcing the Sox to sign oft-injured Andrew bailer away from the A`s. Big gamble or genius move? It remains to be seen but if, and that is a big IF Bailey can stay healthy, Boston shouldn`t miss Mr. Papelbon all that much.

2012 Boston Red Sox Prediction:

Boston enters the season with a completely new management team – it will be very interesting to see how it pans out. On the field however, the team looks very much like the one that missed the playoffs last year after their monumental late season collapse.

They will be better this year but with the Yankees loading up and retooling their pitching staff especially, it looks as though Boston has been left out in the cold. They simply didn`t do enough in the offseason to consider them a serious threat to the Yankees.

The Boston Red Sox finish second in the AL and squeak in to the playoffs via the Wild Card.