2011 MLB Team Preview: Cleveland Indians
Hard to believe, as many of us watch the snow fall outside, that the Boys of Summer are almost back. But it’s true; teams have started reporting to 2011 Major League Baseball training camps and it’s time to start our team-by-team baseball gambling previews for the year.
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Indians Calender
FEB. 1-18, 2011 – Salary arbitration hearings
FEB. 14, 2011 – Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
FEB. 19, 2011 – Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for non-pitchers and catchers
FEB. 26, 2011 – Mandatory Spring Training reporting date for all players
One of the toughest decisions in all of 2011 MLB handicapping is figuring out which team will be worse: the Cleveland Indians or the Kansas City Royals. Both rosters look spectacularly bad entering 2011. The Royals have hope thanks to their dynamite farm system but the kids won’t be all right until 2012. That’s why I have the Indians slightly ahead this year.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
World Series odds: +10000
Make no mistake: there is a significant gap between the top three teams in the American League Central – the White Sox, Tigers and Twins – and the bottom two. The third place team should finish 10 or more games ahead of the fourth-place team.
The Indians are on the wrong side of that divide for good reason. Their lineup is a mixture of washed-up vets, injury-prone guys and prospects who haven’t blossomed. Grady Sizemore looks like he’ll never be the same after having microfracture surgery on his knee. Travis Hafner’s glory days are long gone. Asdrubal Cabrera and Matt LaPorta both broke into the bigs with high expectations but neither guy has delivered on his promise.
The Indians’ lineup does have two noteworthy bright spots: Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana. Choo is as underrated as any player in baseball. Look at his numbers. He’s the new Bobby Abreu. Santana flashed lots of ability as a rookie catcher and should mature into the next Victor Martinez. 
Still, Choo and the sophomore Santana won’t be enough to keep this lineup afloat. The Indians will struggle mightily to score.
The rotation doesn’t look much better. Sinkerballer Fausto Carmona is as inconsistent as they come. Justin Masterson can miss bats and is still young enough to become a solid major leaguer but hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.50 since his rookie year. Carlos Carrasco was decent over seven starts last season but walks too many guys and is still very inexperienced.
The ninth inning is in good hands with Chris Perez. He sparkled last season, saving 23 games, posting a 1.71 ERA and striking out 61 guys in 63 innings. Opponents batted .182 off him. But Perez can only be so effective when the Indians don’t take many leads into the ninth inning.
2011 OUTLOOK
If Sizemore miraculously gets healthy, if Santana avoids the sophomore slump, if LaPorta learns how to hit big-league pitching, if Masterson takes a leap forward…look at all those “ifs.” And even if they all come true, that would still make the Indians a .500 team at best. Cleveland is a bad, bad team. And I’d be shocked if that changed in 2011.
Prediction: 4th, American League East
