2011 MLB Team Preview: Cincinnati Reds
Hard to believe, as many of us watch the snow fall outside, that the Boys of Summer are almost back. But it’s true; teams have started reporting to 2011 Major League Baseball training camps and it’s time to start our team-by-team baseball gambling previews for the year.
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Reds Calender
FEB. 1-18, 2011 – Salary arbitration hearings
FEB. 14, 2011 – Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
FEB. 19, 2011 – Voluntary Spring Training reporting date for non-pitchers and catchers
FEB. 26, 2011 – Mandatory Spring Training reporting date for all players
Given the exciting young players on their roster, it was only a matter of time before the Cincinnati Reds broke through and made the playoffs. Led by National League MVP Joey Votto, the Reds established themselves as a formidable force, possibly for years to come.
But this team is not perfect. It has a few noteworthy holes, its pitching isn’t a sure thing, and the Brewers improved dramatically this offseason. Does that mean Cincy has an uphill climb to return to the playoffs this season?
CINCINNATI REDS
World Series odds: +2500
The Reds are one of the few teams that can match Philadelphia and Milwaukee’s power. Their young guys swing some heavy lumber and are only getting better. Joey Votto is absolutely the real deal. His pedigree suggested an MVP-type season was on the way and his outstanding batting eye indicates that his production is sustainable. He’ll be a monster again.
Votto has some big bats backing him. Drew Stubbs has quietly become a great all-around player, making plays with his bat, feet and glove; Jay Bruce is still young enough to deliver on his hype and his torrid 2010 second half suggests he may finally break out for that 35-homer season this year; Brandon Phillips is an outstanding defender who has good pop for a second baseman, runs well and brings a special swagger and leadership to this young club.
The Reds, however, aren’t without holes. Scott Rolen is getting creakier and older by the second; his next injury is just around the corner. Paul Janish is nothing special at shortstop; Ramon Hernandez is both brittle and inconsistent at this stage of his career; Jonny Gomes was solid last year but hasn’t strung together consecutive good seasons as a major-league regular. 
I still like Cincy’s lineup a lot. Huge power, maybe the NL’s best defense, great speed and athleticism. But the point is that it’s not invincible. If even one key guy goes down – especially Votto – it’s not nearly as dangerous.
What to think of the Reds’ rotation? It has plenty of potential but could just as easily fall flat on its face. Bronson Arroyo eats innings like crazy but is also very lucky; how does he manage to survive year after year as a flyball pitcher in a hitter’s park? Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto are the real talents of this staff. Volquez is the most naturally gifted but he’s an injury risk; Cueto is more consistent and, I’d say, underrated.
That leaves the youngsters like Travis Wood, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake at the back end. Wood and Leake showed flashes as rookies, with Wood looking like the better pitcher to me. It looks like Leake will start this season in the minors and former top prospect Bailey will try to put it all together once more. We know what we’re getting from Arroyo and Cueto and, between, Volquez, Bailey and Wood, at least one if not two of those guys should deliver. So, while the Reds’ staff is unpredictable, there’s the talent there to succeed.
If only Cincy would move flamethrower Aroldis Chapman, owner of baseball’s fastest-ever recorded pitch (105.1 MPH), into the starting rotation. He’s young and raw but he’s a special talent that rivals Stephen Strasburg. For now, he’s staying in the bullpen. He’s not even getting to close, as Francisco Cordero still (barely) holds onto that job. So are the Reds being smart by developing Chapman slowly? Or are they being dumb by wasting his talent in a setup role?
2011 OUTLOOK
I fully expect the Reds to contend in the NL Central again this season. They have too many talented young guys not to. However, I think the sledding may be slightly tougher in 2011. Milwaukee’s roster looks sturdier and more predictable than Cincinnati’s group, which has lots of ability but is definitely volatile. For that reason, I see the Brewers taking the crown, leaving the Reds to fight tooth and nail for a Wildcard berth.
Prediction: 2nd, National League Central
