The Bettor’s Box
The number three has a hold on all of us. Baseball’s inherent beauty is all about threes: three strikes to an out, three outs to an inning, three groups of three innings to a game. That’s why we’re sticking with the format as we present the three best series and the three best single games to bet on this week.
Series: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
The two most popular teams in the world with the two biggest payrolls meet for a pair of games starting Monday (7:05 p.m. Eastern, ESPN). Boston swept the Yankees in three straight as part of last month’s 11-game winning streak, but the Sox have cooled off since then at 2-4 to sit at 15-10 (plus-2.61 units) on the season. The Yankees are 4-2 since getting swept and 13-11 (minus-2.80 units) overall. New York is also second in the majors with 142 runs scored; Boston is fourth with 138 runs, and the over is a combined 32-16-1 between the two ancient rivals.
Series: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
They fought it out for the National League Central in 2008. It’s early, but they’re both fighting it out right now just to stay above water – the Cubs are 13-11 (minus-1.09 units) and the Brewers are 13-12 (plus-1.20 units), well behind division-leading St. Louis at 17-8. Friday’s opener will mark the second time they’ll have met at Miller Park this season; Chicago won two of three for a profit of 0.65 units. The Cubs might not have Carlos Zambrano in this series after he strained a hamstring on Sunday trying to leg out an infield single against the Marlins.
Series: San Francisco Giants at L.A. Dodgers
This heated rivalry dates back to when both teams were located in New York, then moved West together for the 1958 season. It’s still an important series even with the Dodgers rolling at 18-8 (plus-9.32 units, tops in the majors) and the Giants the only other winning team in the NL West at 12-11 (plus-0.17 units). This is already their third series of the 2009 campaign; the Dodgers swept all three at Chavez Ravine before dropping two of three last week at AT&T Park. Hostilities will be renewed Friday night with Chad Billingsley (5-0, 2.21 ERA) slated to face Barry Zito (0-2, 3.99 ERA).
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (Wednesday, 10:05 p.m. Eastern)
This is another opportunity for bettors to ride the coattails of the Blue Jays (18-9, plus-8.43 units) and their ace pitcher, perennial Cy Young candidate Roy Halladay (5-1, 3.68 ERA). The Jays have won five of his six starts for a profit of 2.9 units, with the over also checking in at 5-1.
Toronto is the highest scoring team in the majors with 155 runs, a team OPS of .842 and the over at 16-11. The Angels (10-13, minus-1.33 units) have significantly less pop with 122 runs and a .775 OPS, but the over is 15-7-1 because their pitching has fallen apart. Rookie Anthony Ortega (0-1, 5.56 ERA) has yet to prove he can stop the bleeding.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (Friday, 7:05 p.m. Eastern)
LeBron James is doing most of the scoring in Cleveland these days. Progressive Field (still referred to as The Jake) has the second-lowest park factor for runs at 0.750; only the new Yankee Stadium is lower at 0.727. But that’s only good enough for the under to break even at 6-6; the Indians (5.90) and Yankees (5.93) also happen to have the two worst ERAs in the majors at press time. Cleveland got four straight quality starts from Cliff Lee (1-4, 3.92 ERA) but blew the last three by scoring a grand total of two runs in support. Former AL Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander (2-2, 5.66 ERA) is 2.09 units in the black despite his waywardness, while the reigning AL Cy Young winner is 4.33 units in the red.
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (Saturday, 10:05 p.m. Eastern)
If you haven’t seen Felix Hernandez (4-0, 2.38 ERA) pitch yet, you’ve been missing out. “King Felix” is the straw that stirs the drink in Seattle these days; the Mariners have won all five of his starts for 5.39 units in earnings and the lead in the American League West at 15-10 (plus-5.4 units). Although the M’s got an extreme defensive upgrade during the offseason, the over is 3-2 for Hernandez and 14-11 overall. Minnesota counters with the intriguing Francisco Liriano (0-4, 6.04 ERA), who has two quality starts in his last three outings and figures to continue improving on the long road back from Tommy John surgery.
