2011 MLB All Star Home Run Derby Free Picks
Major League Baseball took a page from the NHL’s “captain’s picks” format for its Home Run Derby this season. It’s a neat idea in theory, pitting the American League’s Team David Ortiz against the National League’s Team Prince Fielder.
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But the truth is that bettors still want to pick an individual winner. 
As a side note: the American League leads the all-time series 15-10, just in case you’re wondering.
Let’s break down the eight hopefuls.
Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
Home Run Derby odds: +280
No man has more long balls in the last year and a half than Jose Bautista, who hit 54 in 2010 and is somehow on pace to beat that total this season. First-timers sometimes struggle in the Derby but Bautista doesn’t seem like the type. He’s a clutch hitter who finds a way to hit balls for power no matter where they are in the strike zone.
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Home Run Derby odds: +350
The 2009 champ has as strong a shot as anyone to win the Derby this season. Prince has pure, prodigious power. Is there any chance, though, that being the NL captain might distract him and/or put extra pressure on him this time around?
Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals
Home Run Derby odds: +350
Matt Holliday is a great hitter but is he a true home run hitter? The two guys above him and the guy directly below him on this list have 50-homer seasons to their names. Not that a 30-homer guy has never won the Derby before, but I prefer the monsters who can knock the ball over the fence without even trying.
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David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
Home Run Derby odds: +385
Big Papi is in a very similar situation to Prince. He, too is a hulking, lefthanded bat and he, too faces the extra responsibility of being a team captain. The way Papi has swung the bat this season, though, I’d expect a solid performance.
Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox
Home Run Derby odds: +600
Adrian Gonzalez has great power but he’s also just a great hitter in general. He’s the kind of guy who isn’t afraid to go the other way and take a double off the monster. Since he isn’t one to go for broke and hack like Fielder, Bautista and company, I’d put Gonzalez in the second tier here.
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
Home Run Derby odds: +650
Kemp reminds me of Holliday in that he’s a big guy with solid power but not necessarily a pure home-run swing. Then again, Kemp is probably the most athletic guy on this list. He strikes me as type who could “decide to hit homers” at a massive rate for a night if he felt like it. Consider him an interesting sleeper. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
Home Run Derby odds: +800
Cano’s swing is oh-so-sweet – but perhaps too sweet for the Home Run Derby. His crisp, line-drive stroke is good for 25-plus bombs a season but is not conducive to a Derby victory.
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
Home Run Derby: +1200
I think Weeks is the contestant most likely to succumb to nerves tonight. He has far more power than many people realize, plus a lightning-quick bat ,but he may overcompensate to prove that tonight and wind up struggling.
THE PICK
If you believe in the myth that the Home Run Derby forces players to change their swing and subsequently messes up their game, Jose Bautista has to be your pick. The way I see it, he already has a “Home Run Derby swing.” It’s big, long, and he (successfully) tries to pull everything. Bautista won’t have to change his swing one bit tonight. He should be in his comfort zone.
As a guy who rode the pine for most of his career only to break out into stardom last year, he also knows he’s playing with house money.
Bautista isn’t likely to feel much pressure.
He should be just happy to be a part of the festivities and should flourish as a result.
Pick: Jose Bautista +280
2 replies on “MLB Betting – 2011 Home Run Derby Preview | Pick”
what up Shea i hve been follow you around 1 month and you are amazing,,keep it doing in this big rally, about derby i also think Jose could win but i really like +600 Titan value ,,so i will pick him,, thanks alot for your info as always so right! thanks
Much appreciated, Luiko! Being right is way more fun than when I’m wrong. Haha. Fingers crossed for Bautista tonight. Good luck…cheers.