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135th Kentucky Derby Exacta Picks

On the first Saturday in May the sports wagering world turns its attention on the famed Churchill Downs for the running of 135th Kentucky Derby…

Derby Betting – Early Bird Derby Exacta

Kentucky Derby Betting Online – Early Bird Derby Exacta

It’s that time of the online sports betting season when gamblers take an exciting two-minute break from MLB action, NHL and NBA postseason play. Collectively, on the first Saturday in May the sports wagering world turns its attention on the famed Churchill Downs for the running of 135th Kentucky Derby.

Only trailing the Super Bowl, the Kentucky Derby is the biggest betting event in North America. Annually and progressively, the BetUS Racebook welcomes a slew of first-time online horse betting fans to The Sport of Kings when the Run for the Roses nears.

Looking for today’s Kentucky Derby Morning Lines?? Click Here —–>

The 20-horse field has yet to be set, and positions for this year’s Derby won’t be drawn until Wednesday evening, but I’ve put together an early exacta. Like any event, our goal as bettors are to find value. For newcomers to horse betting online, a winning exacta requires the selection of the first two finishers in order. Boxing an exacta lets your selections come in any order and still win. It’s a great way to risk less to win more with a little luck, of course. Another tid-bit for both novice and gurus, ESPN has dropped its coverage of the post position selection broadcast during Derby Week.

If you bet horses online regularly, or trackside, you know making money comes from picking the horses not expected to win, to win. With the Derby being a notorious chalk player’s nightmare, and with one of the most wide-open fields in recent years taking to post for the most exciting two minutes in sports, there’s potential for a big exacta payout. As well, one of the three-top favorites has been scratched, and with good reason to throw out one of the other two remaining favorites things have suddenly gotten juicer.

Quality Road’s chances to win the Derby ended Monday morning when the colt’s right front foot was simply too sore to allow him to train, following the development of a quarter crack on his right front foot last Thursday. Quality Road needed to get a workout in Monday morning, but Trainer Jimmy Jerkens noted that the quarter crack on his right front foot was simply too sensitive for the workout. Quality Road won 3 of his 4 life-time starts including the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, which would of placed him among the top-three betting choices on Saturday.

With Quality Road gone, the other horse I’m leaving off my ticket that will receive a lot of bettor’s support as a top-pick is Pioneerof the Nile. He’s trained by newly minted Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, which makes him an instant contender. The Santa Anita Derby winner has five wins and one third-place finish, while collecting graded earnings of $1,193,250 in eight career starts. However, Pioneerof the Nile hasn’t experienced racing on dirt, so that leaves a big question mark about he’ll take to a new surface against superb talent. That’s concerning enough for me to stay away.

Likely Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite I Want Revenge has three wins, one second and four third-place finishes, while collecting graded earnings of $774,000 in eight life-time starts. The 3-year-old colt won the Wood Memorial with trainer Jeff Mullins and 19-year-old jockey Joe Talamo aboard. Aside from the fact that he’s new to Churchill Downs, this colt on paper looks like the horse to beat, likely going off as the post-time chalk. History shows wagering on the Derby chalk doesn’t pay.

Nationwide at major tracks, the race favorite only wins roughly 33 percent of the time and finish second 53 percent of the time. Second choices win approximately 21 percent of all races and finish second 42 percent of the time. racebookThose numbers drop dramatically in the Run for the Roses, because the Kentucky Derby favorites rarely win for a variety of reasons including big fields, top-notch competition, first time at the distance, traffic trouble, nerves created from an enormous crowd, class issues etc. With all that said, I’m also leaving the likely favorite I Want Revenge off my exacta ticket.

Now, with our slate wiped clean of Derby chalk, it’s time to construct an exacta ticket from a wide-open field that’ll yield a hefty return. At 91-1, Donerail was the longest shot ever to win the Derby, in 1913. We’ll be hard pressed to top that but let’s give it a whirl and make Saturday’s 135th Kentucky Derby a winning one.

Here’s a look at the duo I’m boxing in an exacta, as well as, using both in show wagers.

Papa Clem – Not a racebook favorite but making all the right moves leading up to the Kentucky Derby odds, having won the Arkansas Derby and hanging around with some major contenders to finish second in his last two starts. Papa Clem has never been worse than second around two turns and has great tactical speed that allows him to run on the lead or to close off the pace. Jockey Rafael Bejarano, who has won titles at every Kentucky track, is on a roll, having won six straight meet titles in California.

Chocolate Candy – He may not be a household name, but few horses have more momentum entering the Derby. Chocolate Candy has won four of his last six races. The stretch-runner was a very good second to Pioneerof the Nile in a Santa Anita Derby devoid of pace. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, not one to get caught up in Derby hype, is genuinely excited to have this horse in the Derby. I excluded Pioneerof the Nile because the Derby will be his first race on dirt, as is the case with Chocolate Candy. However, he’s shown adaptability on off tracks and his trainer’s zero concern about the transition has me making a rare exception of investing in a first-timer on a new surface.

Free Kentucky Derby Picks:

Papa Clem/Chocolate Candy (Exacta – box) and Papa Clem (Show); Chocolate Candy (Show).

The biggest issue that faces Horse Bettors before the Kentucky Derby to bet on their Horse now or on Race Day. Why Not do both??? Bet now at Betus.com!!!

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"

3 replies on “135th Kentucky Derby Exacta Picks”

With Papa Clem and Chocolate Candy, you’ve got a minority opinion. From a pool of 20 handicappers, only one named Papa Clem and none named Chocolate Candy to win.

My safe bet would be Pioneer of the Nile with Freisan Fire
My actual bet will be Chocolate Candy with Pioneer of the Nile
My longshot bet would be Chocolate Candy with Hold Me Back

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