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2011 NFL Divisional Round Teasers – Jets/Pats + Packers/Falcons

Vegas Dave weighs in with his NFL handicapping tips for this weekend. It’s another season tiebreaker between fierce divisional rivals as the AFC playoffs enter their second weekend of competition…

Weekend NFL Teaser Betting – Two-Game Teasers With Patriots, Falcons

It’s another season tiebreaker between fierce divisional rivals as the AFC playoffs enter their second weekend of competition. While Baltimore and Pittsburgh play a third game in the AFC North, the Jets and Patriots will go at it to decide bragging rights – and a spot in the AFC title game – in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

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New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Odds: Jets +9.5, Patriots -9.5
Teaser Odds: Jets +16.5, Patriots -2.5

The Jets did beat the Indianapolis Colts last weekend to reach the divisional round for the second straight season, but whereas New York conquered the San Diego Chargers a year ago, it will be much harder for them to knock off the high-flying Patriots, who rolled to a 14-2 mark in the regular season and are playing, by far, the best football in the NFL at the moment.

What makes it really hard to pick the Jets in this game – even against the nearly double-digit spread – is that quarterback Mark Sanchez has been so markedly inconsistent. Sanchez air-mailed several throws against Indianapolis, and those throws naturally came in a climate-controlled dome environment. It’s going to be even tougher for Sanchez to throw the ball in late-afternoon outdoor cold.

Tom Brady, meanwhile, will be very much in his element. The Jets skated by the Colts and narrowly beat a number of other mediocre teams this past season. New England had a few slight hiccups but has generally hammered the teams it played in 2010.

One team is stumbling into this game while the other is ready to impose its will and march to another likely Super Bowl appearance. There’s just no good reason to think New York will keep this game close. Teaser Pick: New England -2.5

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons

Odds: Packers +2.5, Falcons -2.5
Teaser Odds: Packers +9.5, Falcons +4.5

The NFL community thinks that Green Bay has a really good chance of winning this game and with Aaron Rodgers playing quarterback, it’s understandable that a lot of pigskin pundits are arriving at such a conclusion. Experts are also taking note of the fact that Green Bay was able to establish a running game in its wild card win at Philadelphia, thanks to backup running back James Starks, who romped for 123 yards and injected some much-needed balance into the Pack attack.

Green Bay is a confident team heading into Atlanta, and since the Packers played the Falcons on even terms in week 12 before absorbing a 20-17 loss on a field goal with just nine seconds left, the visitors will not back down this upcoming Saturday in the Georgia Dome. There are good reasons to pick Green Bay on Saturday.

However, Atlanta is still healthier than Green Bay is.

The Falcons did lose their first home game of the season to New Orleans on Dec. 27, but the Falcons did not have to win that game to lock up home field throughout the NFC playoffs. All they needed to do was beat Carolina a week later to do the deed. Atlanta’s defense is considerably underrated, and whereas the Philadelphia Eagles plummeted near the end of their regular season, the Falcons figure to be much tougher.

Atlanta should be able to contain Starks and the Packers’ running game. Meanwhile, quarterback Matt Ryan – playing his first home playoff game – is primed for a big performance. It’s instructive to note that whereas Green Bay successfully blitzed Philadelphia quarterback Michael Vick, Ryan won’t be as vulnerable to blitz packages. Take Atlanta in this game, especially since it’s essentially a pick-‘em game with the absurdly low one-point spread. Teaser Pick: Falcons +4.5

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