Week 8 – College Football Picks
So the first BCS standings of 2009 have been released and to no one’s surprise, the Florida Gators—+125 to win this season’s BCS championship at most online sportsbooks—are Kings of the college football hill followed by the Alabama Crimson Tide in the two-spot.
Strangely enough though, Florida dropped to No. 2, trumped by ‘Bama in the Associated Press poll but football fans in “The Swamp” probably don’t care, as their team is tops in the more prestigious poll.
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Florida’s first game as the top BCS team is on the road against the Mississippi State Bulldogs and it is a big 22.5-point road fave and with a Total of 48.5.
The Gators will be looking to maintain No. 1 and this Saturday’s game will mark the fifth-straight week when they’ve been favored by double-digits.
The defending BCS champs have been a college football machine rattling off 16 consecutive straight up wins in a row. For sports bettors, when betting against the spread, in their last 14 games in which a betting line has been posted, the Gators sport an 11-2-1 ATS mark – not too shabby at all.
In Florida’s last 11 games when favored by more than 8-points, they have also been impressive, going 8-2-1 against the spread.
After last week’s scare for Florida, this might be a spot where they look to really trounce an opponent.
Talking to online sportsbook SPORTSBETTING.com about this game, they said the Gators are currently seeing about 70% of all the action wagered on the matchup.
Alabama vs. Tennessee
The AP’s No.1 team and the BCS’ No. 2 will host the Tennessee Volunteers and are favored by 14.5-points with an Over/Under of 43—‘Bama is listed at +250 to win the national championship this year.
Despite being favored by over two TDs, Alabama hasn’t been nearly as dominant against Tennessee; the Vols are 10-4 SU vs. the Tide but not such a good bet ATS, going 7-6-1 in those same games.
Tennessee has been very solid in its last nine games when listed at more than +8, going 7-1-1 ATS.
In the Volunteers’ last seven games in Alabama, they have gone 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS.
Those are a few strong head-to-head trends, but remember, trends are only a small part of the handicapping process.
So far, the favorite is getting a small nod, with 56% of all the early betting action coming in on the Crimson Tide.
Clemson at Miami
A dark horse in the race for the BCS championship is the Miami Hurricanes.
It’s been a while since The U” has been mentioned as a National contender, but with a current overall record of 5-1 (2-1 in the ACC) and a 10th-place ranking in the BCS, it’s not out of the realm that Miami finds a way into the BCS title game—they are a +2500 longshot to win the national title.
Unlike Florida and Alabama, the ‘Canes are favored by single-digits this week; they are 5-point home faves for a game against the Clemson Tigers with a 44 Total.
Clemson’s last 13 games against conference rivals have produced 3 Overs and 10 Unders and they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight ACC matchups.
Miami has been hot in their last nine home games, going 7-2 SU and in their last 18 home games with a posted Total, have 4 Overs and 14 Unders, including five-straight Unders in a row.
The Tigers have been very effective when ‘dogged by 6-points or less, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games with the betting line in that range.
Have a great week and good luck with your college bets.
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