NFL Playoffs – 2011 Super Bowl Championship Preview & Predictions
The 2010 NFL season culminates this upcoming Sunday afternoon with Super Bowl XLV. The Green Bay Packers represent the NFC while the Pittsburgh Steelers represent the AFC in a showdown of two of the most storied franchises in the NFL.
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The following is a look at the pertinent statistics and trends for the Super Bowl as a whole and this game in particular along with my final thoughts and predictions. All odds are supplied courtesy of Bookmaker.com.
Super Bowl XLV
Sunday, February 6
6:30 PM (ET)
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (FOX-TV)
Pointspread: Packers -2 ½
Over/Under: 44 ½
This Sunday’s game will mark the 45th time that the Super Bowl will be played dating all the way back to 1967 when Vince Lombardi’s Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs 35-10. Green Bay covered as a 17-point favorite.
The first underdog to win a Super Bowl were the New York Jets two years later with a shocking 16-7 victory over Baltimore, who was favored by 17. Everyone remembers that game for Jet quarterback Joe Namath’s bold prediction of an upset.
Recent Super Bowl history tells us that the favorite is 6-4 straight-up the last 10 years and is 3-7 against the spread. The average point spread in those 10 games was 6.7 points and the average margin of victory was 10.8 points. Five of the games were decided by double-digits including two 20+ point blowouts and the other five games were decided by four points or less which gives credence to the ‘all or nothing’ nature of this game.
The 2 ½-point spread in this game is the tightest since Miami was favored over Washington by two-points in Super Bowl XVII (17) in 1983. The tightest spread in recent memory was Super Bowl XXXV (35) when Baltimore was a three-point favorite over the New York Giants. The Ravens went on to crush the Giants 34-7. 
This will be Green Bay’s fifth appearance in the Super Bowl and it comes in with a record of 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS. It has been favored in all five games. Pittsburgh has made it to this game seven previous times and is 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS. This will be the just the second time it comes into this game as an underdog.
The Packers finished the 2010 regular season 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS. They went 7-1 SU at home and 3-5 SU on the road. Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games on the road and 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall including the playoffs. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of its last eight games.
The Steelers finished the regular season 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS. They went 5-3 SU at home and 7-1 SU on the road. Pittsburgh is 3-3 ATS in its last six games on the road and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall including its two playoff games. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last five games.
Head-to-head, the last time these two teams played one another was in 2009 with the Steelers coming away with a 37-36 win as a 2 ½-point home favorite. The total went well ‘over’ the 41 ½-point line.
Many people are quick to discount the ‘experience’ factor in games such as this but none the less this remains the one significant edge the Steelers have in this game. Many of the players on this team have played in and won at least one Super Bowl and for veteran players such as Hines Ward and Ben Roethlisberger this will be their third shot at a title in the past six years.
Given Pittsburgh’s experience and its uncanny knack for finding ways to win games, the logical pick is to take the points as this is shaping up to be a one or two point game either way.
The Pick: Pittsburgh +2 ½
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David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.
