Rose Bowl – Wisconsin Badgers vs TCU Horned Frogs Preview Free College Football Pick
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2011 Rose Bowl
Saturday January 1 – 5:00PM
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Wisconsin (11-1) vs TCU (12-0)
Moneyline: TCU -145, Wisconsin +125
Spread Favourite: TCU -3
Over/Under: 59
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Wisconsin
Just another typical season for the Badgers. They seemingly always win when they are supposed to, throw in an upset or two and you have an 11-1 season with a trip to the Rose Bowl. Probably no team was hotter the last month of the season as Badgers ground up opponents. Wisconsin finished on a 7 game winning streak scoring 31 or more points each time including more than 70 points in two of their last three before the Bowl break.
For the most part the Badgers have been just killing teams on the ground. They head into the game with three runners with more than 800 yards on the season. These three, led surprisingly by freshman James White, each also all have more 13 TDs on the season. I can not recall a team with such balanced scoring from their running attack. When forced to throw Scott Tolzien is about as efficient as they come. He is completing nearly 75% of his passes and has only six picks the entire season.
The Badgers and Horned Frogs have never met which is part of what makes this game exciting. They do have one common opponent from this season UNLV. The Badgers beat the Rebels 41-21 to open their season in a performance that just missed covering the spread. TCU also beat UNLV in Vegas by a score of 48-6 covering as an amazing 34 point favourite. Despite the lofty W/L record the Badgers struggled against the number early. They ride a 7 game SU and 6 game ATS winning streak into the Rose Bowl. 
TCU
The Horned Frogs have completed another undefeated regular season, laying waste to the Mountain West Conference and the rest of their schedule. Their reward, a date with Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. Playing in Pasadena is a nice consolation for not making the Championship Game but I would have loved to see them play an opponent with stronger name recognition than the Badgers. With all due respect to Wisconsin a win over Oklahoma or Ohio State would have been a bigger boost for the program.
Slowing down the Wisconsin offense is going to be a challenge but if any defense is up to it the Horned Frogs top ranked unit is. TCU is ranked #1 in total defense, scoring defense, pass defense and third against the run. They held Jacquizz Rogers to just 72 yards, Aztec frosh sensation Ronnie Hillman to 54 yards and Air Force to about 120 yards below their per game average. They won’t completely shut down the Badgers run game but they will present it with speed they are not used to seeing in the Big Ten.
On offense TCU is also a dominant rushing team, averaging more than 260 yards on the ground. QB Andy Dalton is about as experienced as they come and he makes few mistakes. He threw for a career high 26 TDs against only 6 interceptions. He is a threat to run as well and he operates the Horned Frogs at a quick pace the Badgers are not accustomed to. What makes the offense especially tough is that their defense and special teams set it up beautifully. They are super efficient and almost never have to mount long drives to score.
The Pick: I think TCU is going to want this one more and will be geeked up to play a Big 10 team, something they rarely do. Wisconsin won’t wilt under the Rose Bowl pressure but I think the speed of the game will overwhelm them in the beginning and they will run out of time to catchup.
College Football Gambling Trends
Badgers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Badgers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. MWC.
Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Score Prediction: TCU 31 – Wisconsin 24
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