UFC 123 Rampage vs Machida Preview & Picks
After a free-TV UFC 122 that lacked star power, the UFC bounces back with some very big names on the UFC 123 card. Here are my picks for the two main bouts – both of which feature former champs looking to climb back into their respective title pictures.
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Event: UFC 123: Rampage vs. Machida
Date: November 20, 2010
Time: 10PM ET/7PM PT
Location: The Palace of Auburn Hills, Auburn Hills, Michigan
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
Betting: Bet on UFC 123
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (30-8) vs Lyoto Machida (16-1)
UFC 123 odds: Jackson +210, Machida -250
Both Rampage Jackson and Lyoto Machida are ex-UFC light heavyweight champs and both are at career crossroads entering Saturday’s bout. Rampage, distracted by his budding movie career, was out of shape and not himself in his loss to Rashad Evans last May. Lyoto Machida’s run of perfection ended in May when Shogun Rua knocked him out; can he bounce back from that first crushing defeat?
Most bettors will lean Machida’s way. “The Dragon” was untouchable before running into Shogun, tougher to hit than any guy in the sport and both accurate and powerful with his Karate strikes. But I think we’re underestimating Rampage.
Jackson claims to be totally rededicated and in phenomenal shape for Saturday’s fight. We should thus assume that Machida will face the old Rampage. That Rampage beat Dan Henderson, Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei Silva and other legends of the sport. That Rampage was a fearless brawler, dirty boxer and wrestler, as physically strong as anyone in the division.
Given Machida’s situation – trying to get his confidence back after being knocked out for the first time – I think Rampage is a bad matchup for him. Sure, Rampage is somewhat of a counter puncher, but so is Machida. Rampage isn’t afraid to get his nose dirty, get inside Machida’s range and mix it up. I’m not totally convinced that Machida can conquer the mental hurdle of that first knockout. Michael Bisping and Rashad Evans haven’t looked the same since that happened to them. I like the upset pick. That said, if Rampage can’t knock Machida out, Machida will use his superior speed to out-point him.
Pick: Jackson +210
Matt Hughes (45-7) vs BJ Penn (15-7-1)
UFC 123 odds: Hughes +130, Penn -160
Boy, is this ever a tough fight to predict. If I said that a year ago, you would’ve called me crazy, right? Matt Hughes was washed up and BJ Penn was the dominant lightweight champ. But a lot has changed since then. Hughes is making a surprising comeback, winning three straight fights in the welterweight division. Penn took two straight beatings from Frankie Edgar and has since moved back up to 170. 
The historical series is even at 1-1 between these two. Penn submitted Hughes in 2004 and Hughes TKO’d Penn in 2006. Both fights were title bouts.
Based on raw talent, it’s tempting to lean Penn’s way. His boxing is among MMA’s best and so is his Jiu-Jitsu. His biggest obstacle is fitness. He didn’t show up for either of his last two fights against Edgar in shape. He’s reportedly much healthier this time around but we’ve heard that song and dance before.
In the striking game, Hughes has some power but will still be at a disadvantage – especially since his chin isn’t what it was. However, we can’t discount Hughes’ wrestling, which is still outstanding.
Hughes will have the strength advantage in this bout and Penn has historically struggled against powerful wrestlers. He couldn’t stop Hughes from taking him down the last time they fought; he couldn’t stop Georges-St-Pierre from taking him down; even Edgar, who is tiny enough that he could fight at featherweight, took Penn down multiple times in both of their fights.
Call me crazy but i like another upset here. Hughes’ wrestling will guide him to another win.
Pick: Hughes +130
MAIN CARD:
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida
Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn
Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Falcão
Phil Davis vs. Tim Boetsch
George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Lauzon
PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV):
Matt Brown vs. Brian Foster
Aaron Simpson vs. Mark Muñoz
PRELIMINARY CARD:
Karo Parisyan vs. Dennis Hallman
Edson Barboza vs. Mike Lullo
Paul Kelly vs. T.J. O’Brien
Tyson Griffin vs. Nik Lentz
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