Strikeforce Overeem vs Werdum Preview & Pick
The Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix was a great idea from the start. The eight top big men in the promotion battling it out in an eight-man tournament? Yes, please. Now that the UFC bought the Strikeforce, the tourney is even more exciting, as the winner will likely get a unification bout with the UFC heavyweight champ down the road.
READY TO BET on THIS WEEK’S STRIKEFORCE Odds at BODOG?? GRAB YOUR 10% SIGNUP BONUS TODAY!
Promotion – Strikeforce Overeem vs Werdum
Event – Strikeforce
Date – June 18, 2011
Time – 10pm ET/PT
Venue – American Airlines Arena, Dallas, Texas
Broadcast – Showtime, HDNet (Prelims 8pm ET)
Bet on Strikeforce
The Grand Prix continues with two more heavyweight matchups this Saturday night.
Here are my picks.
Alistair Overeem (34-11, 1 NC) vs Fabricio Werdum (14-4-1)
Strikeforce HWGP Quarterfinal Bout
Strikeforce odds: Overeem -330, Werdum +270
This should be fun. Fabricio Werdum is riding a high after becoming the first man to truly defeat Fedor Emelianenko last summer. Alistair Overeem, the current Strikeforce champ, has obliterated everyone in his path over the last few years, but he lost to Werdum via submission five years ago. This is a grudge match.
If Werdum taught us anything with his victory over Fedor, it’s that he has to be respected. He’s an elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu guy with great submission skills. Unfortunately for Werdum, his win over Fedor also put a target on his back. Overeem won’t underestimate him. “The Demolition Man” is also a powerhouse kickboxer. Guys who (a) have big knockout power and (b) take Werdum seriously have fared well against him in the past. Junior Dos Santos crushed him; Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Kharitonov also handled him. Overeem fits the profile.
Also, Overeem isn’t the same fighter he was five years ago. Whether or not he’s, er, artificially enhanced himself, he’s undeniably grown into more of a beast. In his last 10 fights, he’s had nine mostly easy victories and one no-decision. He’s been borderline untouchable.
I expect Overeem to avenge his loss and advance to the semifinal. Pick: Overeem -330
Josh Barnett (29-5) vs Brett Rogers (11-2)
Strikeforce HWGP Quarterfinal Bout
Strikeforce odds: Barnett -300, Rogers +250
Josh Barnett hasn’t been in the spotlight over the last few years, but the former UFC heavyweight champ has a great chance to make himself relevant again this Saturday. Barnett is a strong grappler with great submissions; his hands are also heavier than he gets credit for.
In Brett Rogers, he faces one of the hardest punchers in the sport. However, in Brett Rogers, Barnett also faces a somewhat overrated and inexperienced fighter. Rogers’ career path reminds me a lot of Shane Carwin’s. He started 11-0, finishing nine guys in the first round; Carwin started 12-0, finishing everyone in the first round. Then, he climbed the ladder perhaps too quickly and found himself overmatched. Carwin couldn’t beat Brock Lesnar and Junior Dos Santos; Rogers couldn’t handle Fedor or Alistair Overeem.
Though Rogers lost to the two legends via knockout, the constant in my mind was more the grappling. Especially in the Overeem fight, Rogers couldn’t handle being mounted, placed on his back and ground-and-pounded.
Bad news for Rogers: the ground-and-pound game is a speciality of Barnett’s. “The Baby-faced Assassin” just has more tools in his belt than Rogers does. Rogers is a brawler; Barnett can grapple, hit hard and submit guys. He can win in so many more ways and I think he’ll have an easy time against Rogers. Pick: Barnett -300
STRIKEFORCE: OFFICIAL FIGHT CARD
Main card (Showtime, Russia 2 TV and Eurosport 2)
Heavyweight Grand Prix Quarterfinal bout: Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum
Heavyweight Grand Prix Quarterfinal bout: Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers
Lightweight bout: K.J. Noons vs. Jorge Masvidal
Heavyweight bout: Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson
Heavyweight bout: Valentijn Overeem vs. Chad Griggs
Preliminary Card (HDNet)
Lightweight bout: Gesias Cavalcante vs. Justin Wilcox
Lightweight bout: Conor Heun vs. Magno Almeida
Welterweight bout: Nah-Shon Burrell vs. Joe Ray
Welterweight bout: Todd Moore vs. Mike Bronzoulis
Welterweight bout: Brian Melancon vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg
