UFC 189 Preview and Picks
The UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend when UFC 189 goes down. The biggest story ahead of the weekend is the rib injury to Jose Aldo – an issue that finally forced him to pull out of his much anticipated, long-awaited bout with Conor McGregor.
UFC 189: Mendes vs. McGregor
Date: July 11, 2015
Time: 10 pm ET
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Broadcast: Pay-per-view, Fox Sports 1, UFC Fight Pass
***2015/16 BONUSES***
[dfads params=’groups=63740&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
It’s yet another blow to the UFC landscape but at least there is some quality in the form of Chad Mendes that will step in.
The rest of the card is pretty good – a Welterweight Title fight could be one of the better bouts we’ve seen in a while. There are also some hungry fighters looking to leap into the top 10 of their respective divisions. Let’s take a look at every fight on the card and what could play out in Vegas Saturday.
Main Card (on pay-per-view)
Chad Mendes (17-2): +140
Conor McGregor (17-2): -170
It really sucks that Jose Aldo injured himself in training – a McGregor/Aldo fight had a chance to be fight of the year. Anyhow, Chad Mendes steps in as a worthy replacement to take on perhaps the best boxer and all-around striker the UFC has on its roster today. Mendes and his incredible wrestling/takedown pedigree will definitely be a test for the Irishman – that is IF Mendes sticks to his fight plan and steers away from a striking battle.
CLICK to GRAB OUR BEST Expert Sports Picks for 2015 GAMBLING!
McGregor will use kicks to keep his opponent at bay and utilize his lethal hands to the body and to the head of Mendes – Chad absolutely cannot stand with this guy. Constant movement and furious pace will also be staring Mendes down on Saturday night.
Simply put there is only one Featherweight on the planet that can match Conor McGregor inside the Octagon right now – that man is Jose Aldo. I expect had Mendes to have a tough time with the pace and the ferocity of McGregor in this one. Far too often Mendes has been lured into brawls – precisely where he doesn’t want to be against McGregor.
McGregor has already knocked out Marcus Brimage, Diego Brandao, Dustin Poirier and Dennis Siver in his five fight UFC career – my guess is that Mendes will be #5. It will be fun but it will be violent as well.
MMA Betting Pick: Conor McGregor -170
Robbie Lawler (25-10): +150 vs. Rory MacDonald (18-2): -185
The UFC Welterweight Title will be on the line Saturday when Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald meet for the second time with Lawler winning the first bout by a razor-close split decision. Lawler will try to keep his MMA rebirth going against a young, hungry, up-and-coming challenger. It is a classic old school versus new school bout – one that is definitely a fight-of-the-night candidate.
Lawler enters this fight having won three of his last four fights against the best the UFC has to offer – Jake Ellenberger, Matt Brown and Johny Hendricks – his only loss over that span came against Hendricks while MacDonald has won three straight ahead of Saturday night’s clash against Demian Maia, Tyron Woodley and Tarec Saffiedine – not exactly the quality that Lawler has faced.
Both men have relied on solid striking games in the recent bouts. Lawler is the more accomplished of the two fighters in that regard. MacDonald will absolutely have to get this fight to the mat where he has a big advantage. The problem with that is Lawler’s recent success stuffing takedowns. If stud-wrestler Johny Hendricks had trouble getting this fight to the ground, I expect MacDonald to have similar issues.
[dfads params=’groups=1436&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
I think this fight becomes a brawl – exactly the type of fight that Lawler wants. In a striking battle I will take Ruthless every time over the young Canadian. This fight goes to a decision with Lawler defeating MacDonald for the second time AS UNDERDOG!!!
MMA Betting Pick: Robbie Lawler +150
Dennis Bermudez (14-4): -210 vs. Jeremy Stephens (23-11): +170
A couple of Featherweights will try to get back into Title contention on Saturday night – Dennis Bermudez and Jeremy Stevens are both coming off losses and are in need of a win just to remain relevant within the division.
Bermudez brings a very well rounded game – he has power in both hands and has an impressive submission game as well. Stevens is a good, old fashioned brawler whose style has caught up to him in his last two fights (both losses). Expect Bermudez to pose a host of problems because of his NCAA Division I wrestling pedigree, his power and his ability to dictate exactly where a fight ends up en route to a decision win over the increasingly mistake-prone Stevens. This should be an easy win for Bermudez.
MMA Betting Pick: Dennis Bermudez -210
Gunnar Nelson (13-1-1): +150 vs. Brandon Thatch (11-2): -185
Former prospect Gunnar Nelson takes on striking machine Brandon Thatch in Welterweight action Saturday night – both fighters will be looking to make a little noise in the stacked division. Eight of Thatch’s 11 wins have come by KO or TKO while Nelson’s game is grappling – he has nine wins by submission.
Nelson’s lone loss came against Rick Story after a long layoff due to injury – I am willing to give him a mulligan for that effort. The fact is that Nelson is the more well-rounded fighter who should be able to stay out of Thatch’s danger zones. Expect Thatch to demonstrate some power but for Nelson to get this fight to the mat when the heat is on.
CLICK to GRAB OUR BEST Expert Sports Picks for 2015 GAMBLING!
Once on the ground Nelson holds an enormous advantage. I think that’s where this fight ultimately ends up.
MMA Betting Pick: Gunnar Nelson +150
Brad Pickett (24-10): +550 vs. Thomas Almeida (19-0): -900
Bantamweights kick off the pay-per-view on Saturday when uber-hyped Thomas Almeida tries to keep rocketing up the ladder against Brad Pickett who looks as though his best days are behind him.
Almeida is definitely a dangerous foe – he has finished 14 of his 18 opponents by KO or TKO while Pickett has lost three of his last four fights. This fight is an easy one to call – Almeida is absolutely on fire and should be on his way to a Title Fight in the not-too-distant future. Consider Pickett a stepping stone in this one!
MMA Betting Pick: Thomas Almeida -900
Prelims (on FOX Sports 1)
Matt Brown (21-13): -190 vs. Tim Means (24-6-1): +155
MMA Betting Pick: Matt Brown -190
John Howard (22-11): -120 vs. Cathal Pendred (17-2-1): -110
MMA Betting Pick: John Howard -120
Mike Swick (15-5): +300 vs. Alex Garcia (12-2): -400
MMA Betting Pick: Mike Swick +300
Cody Garbrandt (6-0): -650 vs. Henry Briones (16-4-1): +425
MMA Betting Pick: Cody Garbrandt -650
Prelims (on UFC Fight Pass)
Neil Seery (15-10): -105 vs. Louis Smolka (8-1): -125
MMA Betting Pick: Louis Smolka -125
Yosdenis Cedeno (10-4): -200 vs. Cody Pfister (11-4-1): +160
MMA Betting Pick: Cody Pfister +160
Check out our Updated UFC 189 Odds.
[dfads params=’groups=65348&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
