UFC 188 Preview and Picks
The UFC takes it show to Mexico City this Saturday, June 13 – Cain Velasquez will try to unify the heavyweight championship against interim champ Fabricio Werdum, two top tier lightweight will do battle and some rising stars will attempt to climb the ladders in their respective divisions. It promises to be a terrific night of fights.
Here is a breakdown of every bout on the card and the UFC odds that accompany each fight.
UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum
Date: June 13, 2015
Time: 10 PM ET
Location: Mexico City
Broadcast: Pay-per-view, FX, UFC Fight PassMain Card (on Pay-Per-View):
Cain Velasquez (13-1): -470 vs. Fabricio Werdum (19-5-1): +370
Arguably one of the most gifted heavyweight fighters to ever set foot into the Octagon Cain Velasquez gets back to action after two knee injuries and a shoulder injury forced him to the sidelines for 18 months. He takes on one of the more crafty submission fighters the UFC Heavyweight division has ever seen – Fabricio Werdum is certainly a dangerous ground fighter with an emerging stand-up game.
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Despite injury, Velasquez is the favorite here for a reason – his cardio and his wrestling pedigree is like no other inside the division. He will be prepared to drag Werdum into deep water – just where Velasquez is at his best. Wearing down his opponent with constant pressure is Velasquez’s game – a very effective to defend.
Fabricio Werdum is a time Brazilian Jiu Jitsu world champion and has reeled off five straight wins. He has submitted some of the sports best including Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fedor Emelianenko. To go along with his elite grappling, Werdum has added a devastating Muay Thai game that makes him extra dangerous as we head into this fight.
Werdum is a dangerous guy for sure but Velasquez is a different type of fighter. He won’t be worn down, he won’t be taken down and he won’t be pushed around. For Werdum to win he will need to be able to keep Velasquez on the outside and he must be able to take him down at various times in this fight – I can’t see either of those things happening.
MMA Betting Pick: Cain Velasquez -470
Gilbert Melendez (22-4): -170
Eddie Alvarez (25-4): +145
Two of the best lightweights on the planet do battle for a possible title shot in their next fight. Melendez, the former WEC Lightweight champ takes on former Bellator Lightweight Title Holder Eddie Alvarez.
Both fighters are more-than-capable wrestlers and both have superb technical striking games. Alvarez may be the better boxer but Melendez has a slight edge in his overall game. In a razor close decision, I like the aggressiveness of Gilbert Melendez to reign supreme here. Melendez’s chin will also be a huge asset against a fighter that can and will hit him a lot.
MMA Betting Pick: Gilbert Melendez -170
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Kelvin Gastelum (10-1): -400
Nate Marquardt (33-14-2): +330
The Ultimate Fighter season 17 champion Kevin Gastelum takes on Nate Marquart in a Middleweight bout Saturday. Gastelum had some success at Welterweight but issues making weight forced him to step up in weight class to a more comfortable 185.
Gastelum, a potential future star draws aging veteran Nate Marquart who has been knocked out in two of his last four fights – not a good sign when facing an opponent with thunder in his hands like Gastelum possesses. If Gastelum can’t land something on Marquart’s weak chin, he should have some success on the ground – four of Gastelum’s 10 wins have come by submission.
Simply put there is no aspect of this fight where Gastelum isn’t absolutely superior at this point in his career. Marquart’s days as a threat were over long ago – expect Gastelum to win this fight with ease.
MMA Betting Pick: Kevin Gastelum -400
Henry Cejudo (8-0): -900
Chico Camus (14-5, 1 NC): +600
Perhaps the best wrestler in the UFC today – Olympic Free-Style Gold Medalist Henry Cejudo will try to further climb up the Flyweight ladder when he takes on a somewhat inconsistent Chico Camus.
Cejudo is a heavy favorite for a reason – he absolutely destroyed former Title challenger Chris Cariaso last time out – Cejudo made Cariaso look like an amateur. Along with the best wrestling pedigree in the game Cejudo also has some serious striking chops at his disposal.
Chico Camus, Cejudo’s opponent can best be described as an OK fighter – he is just 3-2 in his last five fights inside the Octagon. There is nowhere that Camus will be able to hide in this one – he is overmatched in absolutely every aspect of this fight.
Cejudo does what he wants in this fight and should be in line for the next title shot in the Flyweight Division
MMA Betting Pick: Henry Cejudo -900
Tecia Torres (5-0): -300
Angela Hill (2-0): +250
Former TUF 20 competitors meet in the first bout of the pay-per-view card. Angela Hill brings with her a pretty dangerous striking game – her hands are as heavy as any fighter in the Women’s Strawweight Division. That said Hill is being tossed in the Octagon with a more seasoned, more well-rounded fighter – one that is at least in the same striking league as Hill.
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Experience and a more varied game will be the determining factors here as Angela Hill learns a lesson at the hands of Tecia Torres.
MMA Betting Pick: Tecia Torres -300
Preliminary Card (on FX):
Yair Rodriguez (4-1): +190 vs. Charles Rosa (10-1): -225
MMA Betting Pick: Charles Rosa -225
Efrain Escudero (23-9): +135 vs. Drew Dober (15-6, 1 NC): -155
MMA Betting Pick: Efrain Escudero +135
Alejandro Perez (15-5): -165 vs. Patrick Williams (7-4): +145
MMA Betting Pick: Alejandro Perez -165
Francisco Trevino (12-0): +270 vs. Johnny Case (20-4): -330
MMA Betting Pick: Johnny Case -330
Preliminary Card (on Fight Pass):
Augusto “Dodger” Montano (15-1): -165 vs. Cathal Pendred (16-2-1): +145
MMA Betting Pick: Cathal Pendred +145
Gabriel Benitez (17-4): +195 vs. Clay Collard (14-5): -230
MMA Betting Pick: -230
Andrew Todhunter +320 vs. Albert Tumenov (15-2): -385
MMA Betting Pick: Albert Tumenov -385
Check out our Updated UFC 188 Odds.
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