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Well Donovan McNabb is gone…now what? This team has been shockingly bad all season long and hasn’t found a way to shake it. Last week’s loss to Denver might have been the hardest to take yet as they actually made Tim Tebow look like an NFL passer.
Each week during the heart of the NFL season, and once or twice during the NFL Preseason, we’ll gather the troops around the roundtable and hash out the NFL Power rankings. We check out the stats, looks at the records, and, most importantly, we take a close, close look at the heart of each team.
I hope that everyone reading this tuned in last week for Northern Illinois’ win over Toledo. For me it was the most entertaining game I have seen since Baylor vs TCU in week 1. It was a big one too as UNI took control in the MAC West.
LP Field – Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday October 30 – 1:00Moneyline: Tennessee -445, Indianapolis +355
Spread (ATS): Tennessee -10
Over/Under: 43.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Indianapolis
The Indianapolis Colts are one of three winless teams in the NFL; and if recent performance was the only indicator they are the worst one. The only hope for this team is the old adage that you are never as bad as your worst game, which was a 62-7 hammering by New Orleans last weekend. This team has to still be reeling a bit but the Titans are definitely feeling a little wobbly too.
Everything went wrong last week for the Colts – EVERYTHING. This week will pose a challenge too but the defense should be able to catch their breath against a Tennessee team that was pretty awful last week. The key will be keeping their running game in check. As bad as they have been this team has been close to winning on multiple occasions. They need somebody, anybody to step up and make a play at winning time.
When Peyton Manning was at the helm the Colts had little trouble with Tennessee, winning 5 in a row against their division rivals. Perhaps some of that familiarity will be helpful on Sunday. At +10 I think there is some value on Indy but you have to be comfortable betting with a team that might be the worst in football this season. That is a fair amount of faith. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Tennessee
Tennessee’s performance last week against Houston was surprising. Not that they lost the game but that they were never really in it. This team is sitting at 3-3 but it is hard to gauge their level. Are they the team that hammered Baltimore in week 2 or the team that got throttled last week? One question that is easy to answer is whether investing in Chris Johnson was smart. Nope.
After holding out for big bucks, and getting them, running back Chris Johnson has been a complete bust this year. Tennessee is not blessed with a lot of weapons and now that star receiver Kenny Britt is out for the season they need Johnson more than ever. He has had only one game all season long where he has averaged more than 4 yards per carry. If he can’t get it done against Indy than his and the team’s problem become even bigger.
If Tennessee wants to stay in the playoff race they have to win on Sunday. If they want to avoid the embarrassment of losing to a horrible team they have to win on Sunday. You wouldn’t think it given the opponent but there is actually some pressure on them in this spot. I think they are going to wilt but not collapse. They will win but it will be closer than it should be.
ATS Pick: Indianapolis +10
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Tennessee 27 – Indianapolis 24
Wallace Wade Stadium – Durham, NC
Saturday October 29 – 12:30Moneyline: Virgina Tech -650, Duke +475
Spread (ATS): Virginia Tech -15
Over/Under: 54
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Virginia Tech
The Virginia Tech Hokies have won three straight since being embarrassed by Clemson. They are in control in the Coastal Division of the ACC provided there are no hiccups, which seem unlikely. This is a team that is good and should continue to get better as quarterback Logan Thomas gets more experience. This is the first of back to back road games so as long as the team is focused Duke should not be much of a concern.
When you have an inexperienced QB it is nice to have the most productive tailback in the country. David Wilson is finally getting his chance and making the most of it – he is the only back with 1000 yards this season. Duke is solid against the run statistically but I can easily see the Hokies wearing them down up front. They can make this a very easy day for Thomas if they want to by keeping it simple.
It is no surprise that the Hokies have dominated the Dookies since joining the ACC. VT is a perfect 7-0 but just 3-4 ATS so it might be said that Duke gets up for Tech. I think it is more that coach Frank Beamer has never been one to embarrass opponents for style points. 4 times in seven games Duke hasn’t even scored double digit points. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Duke
After winning three in a row the Duke Blue Devils have dropped their last two. Even though they don’t have a winning record they can be a thorn in your side, just ask Wake Forest who escaped Durham with a 1 point victory last week. Duke dominated that game, controlling the ball for almost two thirds of the game but they lost the turnover battle and that might have been the difference.
Duke entered the season expected to have one of the better passing offenses in the ACC. They had one of the few experienced QBs in Sean Renfree and a couple of decent receiving threats in Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner. This week will be in tough because on every play one of those is likely to be covered by Jayron Hosely, likely the best cover corner in college football. Renfree is going to have to make smart reads to give Duke a chance.
The problem for Duke seems to always be defense. They are second worst in the ACC in points per game allowed at nearly 30 and may just get bulldozed by the Hokie running game. Not only do they need to stop David Wilson and Co. but they need to get some pressure on Logan Thomas as he is prone to making errors when pressured. I think that is asking a bit too much for a defense without great talent or even athleticism.
ATS Pick: Virginia Tech -15
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 38 – Duke 24
Week 7 Studs and Duds
Each week, the CappersPicks.com fantasy football guru Dave B brings you players you need to be paying attention to – Remember – fantasy football championships are often won by those who live eat and breath fantasy football.
After all of the weekly games are finished be sure to check our waiver wire column, cheatsheets, a who’s hot, and who’s not report plus more in our fantasy football guide.
The Atlanta Falcons had to have a victory last week against Carolina and won by 14 despite being outgained for the contest. They are still behind the eight ball in the divisional and conference playoff picture and need to get away from their win one, lose one pattern after six games.
This is the first Mountain West Conference game for the Broncos. Right now it is looking like they will slice right through the conference en route to another perfect season.
Tennessee is the most pleasant surprise in the NFL season in my books. I thought this was a team that might win 6 games this year and heading into week 5 they are already half way to that total. Included among them was a victory over the Baltimore Ravens by 13 points, a Ravens team that beat Pittsburgh by 28 in week 1.
The Denver Broncos are 1-2 but all of their games have been close, decided by three points or less. Last week they were winning late but Matt Hasselbeck was able to engineer a Titans TD drive in the closing minutes for Tennessee to steal the game.
Minnesota is the most surprising of the group of teams that is currently 0-3. Not because they are any good but because in all three of their games they held double digit leads only to give them up over the course of the second half and lose – most recently to Detroit in overtime.
Metrodome – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Sunday September 25 – 1:00PM
Moneyline:
Spread (ATS): Detroit -4
Over/Under: 45
Odds courtesy of 5DimesDetroitWow, what a performance by the Lions last week. Their hype machine was already humming but when you throttle a team like they did the Chiefs there was no choice for the media to crank it up a notch. After a brief respite at home they are back on the road to face Minnesota, a familiar opponent in an unfamiliar spot against the Lions – home underdog.
The one thing I would like to see Detroit do before I swallow the Kool-Aid is run the ball better. I love their offensive weapons and as long as QB Matthew Stafford is healthy they have a chance to compete with anybody. Their defense is really taking shape although their performance against Kansas City may be hard to repeat with regularity. This is not a smokescreen, the Lions are definitely a team on the come.
The line on this one has already gone up a half point to -4 on the Detroit side. Odds are it will continue to move until kickoff and I would definitely be willing to bet into it until at least -6.5. The Lions will lose eventually but the way they exceeded even last week’s loft expectations indicated this year’s club are the same old Detroit Lions. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Minnesota
The Vikings are in a very precarious position right now. At 0-2, especially in the NFC Central, their chances of making the playoffs this year are slim. They are expected to lose on Sunday and when I look at their schedule I am not sure who they can feel confident beating. This is surprising given that they still have Adrian Peterson and added Donovan McNabb in the offseason.
Against San Diego they were dominated and against Tampa they dominated, for a half. It is disappointing that a team like Minnesota wilted the way they did in the second half at home. It was the kind of performance that makes you think things might get worse before they get better…leading to the beginning of the Christian Ponder era.
This could be a real changing of the guard game for these two teams. Minnesota has won 13 straight home games against Detroit – a fact you can be sure the Lions staff are using as motivation. Last year these teams also met in week three a 24-10 victory by the Vikings at home where Adrian Peterson went off for a season high 160 yards. They are going to need some of that and then some to keep their streak going this week.
ATS Pick: Detroit -4
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Detroit 31 – Minnesota 21
Soldier Field – Chicago, Illinois
Sunday September 25 – 4:15PM
Moneyline: Green Bay -200, Chicago +170
Spread (ATS): Green Bay -3.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Green Bay
The Green Bay Packers got a bit of a scare last week from Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. It was a surprise as the veteran Pack was supposed to show the rookie a thing or two about life in the NFL. Instead he showed that Green Bay is hardly invulnerable, in fact they may have a defensive issue or two after getting shredded through the air a couple of times already this season.
It is possible that the Packers might have been looking ahead to this week when they play the hated Chicago Bears. Don’t forget it was the Bears that won the division last year beating Green Bay at home during the regular season (thought the Packers got even in the playoffs). Neither team has played a division game this year so whoever wins this one will have a significant leg up on the other.
There is no doubt that the Packers are a good team but the reason many thought they could repeat as champs is because they have great balance. That hasn’t been the case as their defense has performed well below expectations. They are giving up an average of 400 yards through the air. That number will likely come down after facing Chicago but it is an indicator that the Pack are not as far ahead of the pack as we originally thought.
Chicago
It looked like the Chicago Bears dominated Atlanta more than they really did in the opener so it should not have come as a surprise when they got beat by almost the same score at New Orleans last week. This Bears team really isn’t all that good so it should not be surprising to see drastic home/road splits, especially when they are playing at a team with a distinct home field advantage like the Saints. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The biggest problem the Bears have is on the offensive line. Last week they gave up 7 sacks to New Orleans and you can bet the Packers will dial up the pressure again this week. We all know that Jay Cutler and pressure are not a good combination in terms of producing winning football for Chicago. The line also has trouble getting a push up front making running back Matt Forte more of a threat in the passing game than running the ball. Green Bay’s defense has been exposed so far this season but I don’t think the Bears have the personnel to do it to the same extent as New Orleans and Carolina.
Being at home is an advantage for the Bears as they have won 3 of 5 at Soldier Field against Green Bay. If they want to have success on Sunday they need something special out of their defense and return ace Devin Hester as their is no way their offense can stay with Green Bay’s. The 3.5 points seems like an easy number for the Green Bay side.
ATS Pick: Green Bay -3.5
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Green Bay 30 – Chicago 21
With all the re-booted hysteria about conference shuffling and re-alignment this past week, it will be nice to get back to playing some actual football this Saturday. One of our midday games this week features two SEC programs having some headaches lately.
Virtually every media outlet and talking head in the college football business has exhausted their resources discussing the struggles of Notre Dame football. Why don’t I follow suit, if only for a few moments?
Among the several exciting games coming down the pipes for Week 2, sadly this isn’t one of them. Arkansas is a strong SEC West division program with noble aspirations in 2011, while the Lobos are rather a mess.
