Category: NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-2)

Time/Date: 8:20 PM EST, September 25, 2011
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Broadcast: NBC
Steelers vs. Colts Gambling Odds from 5Dimes
Spread: Steelers -10.5
Moneyline: Steelers (-510) Colts (+410)
Over/Under: 39.5

When NBC put this game on their schedule before the season started, they certainly would have hoped that Peyton Manning was starting at quarterback for Indianapolis. As it turns out, the Colts are in a state of disarray without Manning. The Steelers were crushed in week one, but they bounced back with a big win last week. Can the Colts play inspired football in front of a national television audience and give the Steelers a tough game this Sunday night?

Ben Roethlisberger, like many of the other Pittsburgh Steelers, had a very rough week one. He played a solid game last week as the Steelers blew out the Seahawks. Mike Wallace has clearly become Big Ben’s top target on the outside. Wallace has 16 catches and 233 yards receiving in just two games. Rashard Mendenhall has turned into a reliable running back for the Steelers. The biggest problem that the Steelers offense has right now is the continued poor play of the offensive line. Roethlisberger is taking too many hits, and the line must improve as the season moves along.

The Pittsburgh defense is definitely one of the best in the NFL. It’s tough to beat a linebacker corps of Harrison, Woodley, Farrior, and Timmons. Troy Polamalu is probably the best safety in the NFL, and he is playing at full strength right now. The defensive line is deep and first round draft pick Cameron Heyward gives them another talented run stuffer. It is very tough to run the football against this front seven. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Kerry Collins was brought in right before the season started to take over the starting quarterback spot while Manning is injured. Collins hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been a disaster. He has only completed 51% of his passes, but the Colts can’t be upset with the fact that he has only thrown one interception thus far. It certainly doesn’t help that the Colts don’t have much of a running game at all. The lack of firepower that Indianapolis is showing on offense right now is definitely a sign of just how great Manning is, and Colts fans can’t wait to get him back. Reggie Wayne has 11 catches for 172 yards already this year, so he is off to another fast start.

This defense has been a bit of a liability over the last few years, but the Colts absolutely need them to step up now that the offense has taken a big step backward. The secondary is solid and the pass rush is very good, but the front seven is terrible against the run. Indianapolis is allowing 137 rushing yards per game so far this year, and they have been one of the worst run defenses in the league each of the last four or five years.

I’m typically not a fan of laying a lot of points in the NFL, especially on the road, but I can’t see the Colts keeping this one very close. There is huge disparity in talent between these two teams right now. The Steelers should win comfortably here.

Free NFL Pick: Steelers -10.5

Kansas City vs San Diego

The San Diego Chargers will show no mercy on a Kansas City Chiefs team that has lost three key players to their starting lineup, when the two division rivals meet at Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday.

Venue/Stadium: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
Time/Date: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, September 25, 2011
NFL Odds From: 5 Dimes
Spread (ATS): Chargers -16
Over/Under: 45

Kansas City has gone from first to worst in just one year, and the news from the locker room is that tight end Tony Moeaki and Pro Bowlers – safety Eric Berry and running back Jamaal Charles – are all out for with season-ending left ACL injuries.

That is good news for a Chargers’ team that has all the right ingredients to regain their roost atop the AFC West.

However, they have yet to show it , and their four-turnover performance against the New England Patriots proves the Bolts still have a ways to go.

The Pats simply pushed the San Diego defense around, scoring drives on all four of their possessions before halftime, en route to a 35-21 win.

The lone bright spot for San Diego was Vincent Jackson who had 10 receptions for 172 yards and two TDs for San Diego, while Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates did not have a single reception for the first time in 34 games.

Rivers will need to do a better job of distributing the rock if San Diego is going to make a serious postseason charge. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

And it all starts this weekend against the Chiefs who have lost four straight and have been outscored 130-27 in those games, including 89-10 this season after matching the worst loss in franchise history, 48-3 at Detroit last Sunday. This just one week after suffering their worst season-opening loss, 41-7 to Buffalo.

The Chiefs committed six turnovers against the Lions, including three interceptions and a fumble by quarterback Matt Cassel.

Can it get any worse?

Well, without Charles, the already poor play Cassel will only be magnified.

He has throw for just 256 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions this season, after averaging 207.7 yards with 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2010.

Hopefully for the Chiefs, running back Thomas Jones, arguably the best backup running back in the NFL, can help fill the void left by the injured Charles and shoulder the majority of the offensive load until Cassel finds his game.

Wherever it is.

But at age 33, the Chiefs must be careful not to overwork Jones, so RB Dexter McCluster will also likely see more time in the backfield. McCluster moved from receiver to running back this season but he’s still seeing time at both positions.

This year, through just two games, he has nine receptions and 12 rushing attempts, but has fumbled twice already this season. McCluster could definitely compliment Jones by creating some confusion for the defense, but only if he holds onto the ball.

Matt’s Prediction: Chargers 40, Chiefs 13- The Chargers won four straight AFC West titles before the Chiefs dethroned them in 2010. However, in the past six games overall against the Chiefs, San Diego QB Phillip Rivers has completed 68.3 percent of his passes with 13 TDs en route to a 5-1 record. I expect Rivers to lead his team to a big win in this one as the Charger cover.

Venue/ Stadium: Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, September 25, 2011
NCAA Odds From: Pinnacle
Moneyline: Houston +17 / New Orleans -200
Spread (ATS): New Orleans -4
Over/Under: 53

Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints Preview

The Texans (2-0) are looking for their first ever 3-0 start in their short history, but getting there will not be easy against a Saints’ offense that ranks 5th in the league. The Texans have the league’s top-ranked defense under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but they played the Colts without Peyton Manning in their 1st game and the Dolphins last week.NFL Llines have the Saints as 4-point home favorites with a total of 53.

The Saints looked solid on both sides of the ball in getting their first win last week and they have dominated opponents in winning 5 of their last 6 games at home.
The Saints beat the Chicago Bears 30-13 and the Texans beat the Dolphins 23-13.

Both teams are 1-1 ATS and the Texans have an Over/Under record of 0-2 and the Saints have an Over/Under record of 1-1.

Houston’s Matt Schaub has played well this season and a Saints’ pass defense that ranks 18th in the league must pressure him and keep him from hooking up with star WR Andre Johnson, who has 14 catches for 188 yards and 2 TD this season.

The Saints have been solid against the run this season, as they rank 18th in the league in run defense. Even with last season’s leading rusher Adrian Foster unlikely to play backup Ben Tate has rushed for over 100 yards in the first 2 games. The Saints were tore up by Tate in a preseason loss and if he can run the ball well it will not only quite the hostile New Orleans crowd, but help keep Drew Brees and the great offense of the Saints off the field. Last week the Saints only allowed the Bears to rush for only 60 yards. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

WR Marques Colston is Brees’ main target, but he is out for this game, but the Saints still have many receiving options and last week Brees passed for 270 yards with 3 TD and no picks. The Houston pass defense is the top-ranked unit in the league, but they have not really faced a great passing attack yet this season.

New Orleans rushed for 118 yards last week and Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles are up against a Houston run defense, which gave up 153 rushing yards last week. Mario Williams, Brain Cushing, and rookie DE J.J. Watt not only have to keep the Saints from piling up the rushing yards, but they must pressure Brees in the backfield, as if they do not he may torch the Houston secondary.

Betting Trends

The Texas are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games as an underdog and they have an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.

The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win, and has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

Jason’s Pick: The Texans have gotten off to a great start, but facing the Saints they will find out thy are not yet an elite team. Brees will have a big game and the New Orleans’ defense will keep Schaub from doing the same. Take the Saints to win this game and cover the 4-point spread and while Schaub won’t have a huge game he will still lead the Texans to a few scores so the total will go Over.

Venue/ Stadium: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Time/Date: 1 PM EST Sunday, September 25, 2011
NCAA Odds From: Pinnacle
Moneyline: JAX +165 / Carolina -190
Spread (ATS): Carolina -3.5
Over/Under: 42.5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers Preview

Cam Newton has gotten off to a fast start to the season becoming the first QB ever to throw for 400 yards games in his first couple starts, but the Panthers are still 0-2 because of defensive issues. The Jaguars are 1-1, but because of inconsistent QB play rookie Blaine Gabbert will get the first start of his young career. NFL lines have the Panthers as 3.5-point home favorites in this game with a total of 42.5.

In their last games the Panthers lost to the Green Bay Packers 30-23 and the Jaguars lost badly to the Jets 32-3.

Both of these teams joined the NFL in 1995 and in 5 all time meetings the Jaguars have won 4 times.

On the season both teams are 1-1 ATS and the Jags have an Over/Under record of 0-2 and the Panthers have an Over/Under record of 2-0.

Newton has over 850 yards passing in his first 2 games with WR’s Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell combining for 453 receiving yards with 3 TD’s. The Jags’ pass defense ranks 14th in the league and they have to pressure Newton up front and keep Smith and Lafell from making the big play down the field since each is averaging over 14 yards per reception.

Newton has not gotten much help from RB DeAngelo Williams, who has only rushed for a grand total of 43 yards averaging 2.5 yards per carry. Newton is also the leading rusher for the Panthers and it has been shown that he cannot do it all. It is also important that Newton cuts down on his INT’s, as that killed him last week when the Packers picked him off 3 times.

With rookie QB Gabbert under center the Jags will look to pound the ball on the ground and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (185 yards 1 TD 4.4 yards per carry), who will be counted on to have a good game.[soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Panthers defense has not played well this season ranking 26th defending the pass and 19th defending the run. Containing Jones-Drew is their biggest issue in this game and their front line D has to pressure Gabbert and make him look like the rookie that he is.

While all the focus has been on the rookie QB’s starting in this game the outcome may come down to which team plays better defense.

Betting Trends

The Jags are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points, and has an Over record of 8-2 in their last 10 road games.

The Panthers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win, and has an Under record of 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.

Jason’s Pick: Newton has looked great in his first 2 games, but I still think Gabbert will be a better NFL QB. While both QB’s will play well the key will be Jones-Drew and the Jacksonville defense, as the Jags will win this game and cover the spread. Take the Under as well, as this will not be a high scoring game.

NFL Football Preview | Oakland v Buffalo

Two teams that haven’t seen post season play in a very long time have found new hope after starting out their respective season with big wins in Week 1,  and now will face each other when the Oakland Raiders head east to take on the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Raiders v Bills
Venue/Stadium: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Time/Date: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 18, 2011
NFL Odds From: 5 Dimes
Moneyline: OFF
Spread (ATS): Bills -3 1/2
Over/Under: 41

The Raiders are looking to go 2-0 for the first time since they last made a postseason appearance, eventually losing to Tampa Bay in the 2002 Super Bowl.

After nearly making the playoffs a year ago, Oakland kicked off the Hue Jackson ear with a 23-20 win at Denver on Monday night.

Quarterback  Jason Campbell led the Raiders’ offense, finishing with two touchdowns while Sebastian Janikowski kicked three field goals, including an NFL record-tying 63-yarder just before halftime.

Okay so the Raiders got Janny. But do they possess all the weapons and the discipline they need to end their playoff drought?

Well for starters, they did a good job of avoiding the mistakes that have been their undoing in the past. Avoiding costly turnovers and bad penalties , and Campbell was far from extraordinary in the teams opener, in fact he was closer to ordinary, completing just around 50 percent of his passes.

On the other hand, exalted  receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey caught four passes and he looked noticeably improved over prior outings, and the ground game seemed to click, running away for 190 yards against the Broncos.

Once again, workhorse Darren McFadden, who after rushing for more than 1,100 yards last year, shouldered the bulk of the carries, handling the ball 22 times for 150 yards in his 2011 debut. Michel Bush also pitched in with gained 30 yards on nine carries. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Good for Oakland who will need all it can get from its backfield heading into Sunday’s contest against a Bills’ defense that had no trouble stopping Kansas City’s running backs.

Not only were the Bills good at stuffing the run– holding Kansas City to 108 yards– but they were pretty good at dishing it out as well, with  premier running back Fred Jackson, who had 20 carries for 112 yards against the Chiefs, leading the way.

He will face his toughest challenge though in Week 2, facing a Raiders defense that shut down the Denver running game allowing just 38 yards on the ground.

That type of defense will force Buffalo to air the ball, something QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is more than capable of. Fitz looked composed under center against the Chiefs, completing 17 passes for just 208 yards but four of them going for touchdowns–two to Scott Chandler who caught five passes for 63 yards and four passes for 66 yards and a touchdown to Steve Johnson.

Matt’s Prediction: Buffalo 21, Raiders 17 – This will likely be a game of defense, and while the Raiders defense has been solid, the Bills, who ranked last against the run last season, have showed cosmic improvement. While I was impressed with the Raiders, I was more impressed with Buffalo’s stunning 41-7 rout of the defending AFC West champions. It isn’t going to take a lot of points to get the win here, as this one stays under the total with the Bills on top.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings

Metrodome – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Sunday September 18 – 1:00PM

Moneyline:  Minnesota -147, Tampa Bay +127
Spread (ATS):  Minnesota -2.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

Tampa Bay

The Bucs lost their opener at home against Detroit setting off a slew of pundits who believed they wouldn’t be able to match last year’s success.  That may turn out to be true but I wouldn’t leap to that conclusion after what I saw on Sunday.  Detroit is a good team.  Sure losing the home opener is not a great way to start the season but it is not time to run for the fire exits just yet.

Last year Tampa had great balance pounding the rock with LeGarrette Blount and Josh Freeman tossing it to an emerging set of wideouts.  Last week the Lions stuffed the Bucs on the ground and then once the team fell behind they couldn’t stick with it.  Freeman was forced to throw the ball more than they like and couldn’t make any big plays (long of 22 yards).  They should find it easier sledding against Minnesota on the ground and in the air.

These teams used to meet twice a year but with realignment haven’t played each other since 2008.  Tampa has won the last 4 meetings covering each time, spanning all the way back to 2001.  The Bucs have also proven to be a great road bet of late on a 13-3-1 ATS tear.  As an underdog they are a great play this weekend.  Given preseason expectations and last week’s performance I would have installed them as the favourite on Sunday. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Minnesota

Many were predicting an embarrassing catastrophe last week when Minnesota visited San Diego.  Sure they lost the game but San Diego had to shutout the Vikings in the second half and score 17 points of their own to beat them.  The really bad news is not the loss but how bad new QB Donovan McNabb looked.  The Christian Ponder era might be starting a little ahead of schedule.

If McNabb can’t get his act together it is going to be very difficult for this team to win.  In Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson they have a couple of players who can take it to the house on every touch but they need balance for them both to be potent weapons.  Blaming McNabb is easy but when you look closer you see a line that is not all that good and a receiving corps that relies too much on big plays – no reliable chain movers..

Despite the fact that Minnesota is the favourite I really don’t think they will challenge in this one.  Even though they lost last week I am still bullish on Tampa and Minnesota didn’t show much after the first 20 minutes against San Diego.  The only hope for Minnesota is if Peterson has a tremendous day but I don’t see him torching the Bucs.

ATS Pick:  Tampa +3
Over/Under Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:  Tampa  30 – Minnesota 17

Venue/ Stadium: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL

Time/Date: 4:15 PM EST Saturday, September 18, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Texans -155 / Dolphins +135
Spread (ATS): Texans -3
Over/Under: 48

Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins Preview

Is this the season the Texans finally unseat the Colts atop the AFC South? They got off to a good start by crushing the Manning-less Colts in their first game and while the Dolphins lost their first outing QB Chad Henne had a good game under center. NFL lines have the visiting Texans as 3-point favorites in this AFC match up with a total of 48.

In their last games the Texans killed the Indianapolis Colts 34-7 and the Dolphins lost to the New England Patriots 38-24.

I guess there is no place like home does not apply to the Dolphins, who have lost 5 straight games and 10 of their last 11 games in Miami. On top of that the Texans have beaten the Dolphins in all 5 games they have faced each other.

Houston has a lot of things going for them in the beginning of this season, as they played great D in the win over Indy, they have a solid QB in Matt Schaub, and they may get last season’s rushing leader back in Adrian Foster.

The big issue for the Texans for the last few years has been their defense, but in a new 3-4 scheme with first round pick DE J.J. Watt they totally shut down the Colts last week holding them to only 236 total yards (172 passing 64 rushing). Chad Henne, who passed for 416 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the loss to the Patriots, will likely test them this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Reggie Bush had a decent debut in a Miami uniform with 38 yards rushing and making 9 catches for 56 yards and a TD last week. He may be the key for the Fish in this game. Also, Houston had 3 sacks last week, 2 by Mario Williams, so look for them to come after Henne early and often.

Schaub played well in the easy win over the Colts with 220 yards with a TD and he was also picked off twice. He has Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones as his deep threats and even though Miami had a solid pass defense last season they were seriously lit up last week giving up 517 passing yards to the Patriots.

Miami gave up 622 total yards to the Patriots last week and they have to shore up their D or they are in for another home loss. Last season Adrian Foster led the league in rushing yards, but did not play in the home opener. Still, the Texans rushed for 167 yards with backup Ben Tate going for 116. Foster is slated to go in this game and the Dolphins have their work cut out for them.

Betting Trends

Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games.

Miami is e 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3 points, and has an Over record of 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games.

Jason’s Pick: Miami has been terrible at home recently, Houston has an offense that can light up a scoreboard, and they may have a much improved defense with Wade Phillips as the new defensive coordinator. Yeah, go wit the Texans to win this game in South Beach and cover the 3-point spread and jump on the Over bet in this match up.

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints

Louisiana Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Sunday September 18 – 1:00PMMoneyline:  New Orleans -312, Chicago +245
Spread (ATS):  New Orleans -7.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

Chicago

The Chicago Bears surprised by beating the Atlanta Falcons 30-12 in the opener. If you watched the game (it wasn’t pretty) than you know it wasn’t as lopsided as the final score appeared.  With the exception of a defensive TD by Atlanta in the 4th quarter all the big plays in the game were made by the Bears.  It is unreasonable to think that they can be that explosive the whole season….and it is different playing on the road than at home for sure.

Jay Cutler was pretty good in the opener throwing for more than 300 yards.  A third of that yardage came on two plays as the Bears were more explosive than usual (I just couldn’t come up with another word for explosive).  They didn’t do too much damage on the ground but were able to get yards when they needed them.  The most encouraging thing to take away from last week was the play of the defensive line.  Henry Melton and Julius Peppers both had two sacks.  They will need to get pressure on Drew Brees to beat the Saints.

Winning at home against a top team from the NFC South is one thing but going into the Superdome and beating the Saints is something altogether different.  The Bears may have won 4 in a row against the Saints but the last three have been at home and the fourth was back in 2005 when a guy named Aaron Brooks was the Aints quarterback.  A lot has changed since then. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

New Orleans

Thrilling ending to the opener on Thursday night.  I am still wondering why Coach Payton thought the smart play was taking the ball out of Drew Brees hands on the final play.  It shows confidence in the line and rookie RB Mark Ingram but I think it was also a little bit of him outsmarting himself.  Nevertheless they are back at home looking to get back to winning, although a little dinged up.

Last week’s game turned on Marques Colston’s lost fumble.  The Saints had little trouble moving the ball but dug themselves too deep a hole to ultimately win the game.  Drew Brees was very sharp and with Colston out he will rely even more on spreading the ball around.  The running game was pretty ineffective against the Pack and it won’t get much easier against Chicago this week.  They use it just to keep the offense honest though.

The Saints are in a great bounce back spot here.  They are playing at home and have a couple of extra days to prepare after opening the season last Thursday.  This is one of the most explosive offenses in the league and the defense is probably better than it showed against an amped up and very talented Green Bay team.  The line is a little heavy at -7.5 but I think it is manageable though there are better bets on the board.

ATS Pick:  New Orleans -7.5
Over/Under Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:  New Orleans 34 – Chicago 23

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Sunday September 18 – 1:00PM

Moneyline:  Detroit -357, KC +275
Spread (ATS): Detroit -9
Over/Under: 45
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

Kansas City

Well those pundits who thought the Chiefs record was inflated last year certainly got what they were looking for in week 1 as the Chiefs were pounded by the Buffalo Bills 41-7.  It was a sloppy game by Kansas City that felt pretty much over by halftime. The Chiefs did little in the second half to respond which is part of the reason the line on on this one has jumped since it opened.  It kind of looked like they were just going through the motions.

There was some concern that QB Matt Cassell might not play last week but he started, he just didn’t have a very good game.  He completed 22 passes for a shockingly low 119 yards.  You have to move the ball deeper down the field with your passing game, especially if you want to give your running game a chance.  Fortunately when the running backs did tote the ball they were pretty effective…the game against Buffalo got out of hand so fast they just couldn’t stick with it.

If you include pre-season the Chiefs have now lost 7 games in row and few are giving them a chance to bounce back this weekend at Detroit.  These teams haven’t met since 2007 when their makeup was much different, more importantly they appear to be going in different directions right now and Kansas City’s is not a good one. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Detroit

It was a great win for the Lions at Tampa.  With expectations building over the offseason it was important to their pysche that they play well with the win the icing on the cake.  With the Chiefs coming to town this weekend they have a great opportunity to show that they are a real threat in the NFC.  I hope they won’t regress now that they are actually in the conversation.  With a win on Sunday they could easily be 3-0 after next weekend.

Everything went pretty much according to plan for Detroit.  Stafford was solid with 300+ yards passing, Calvin Johnson hauled in a couple of TDs and Jahvid Best didn’t get hurt (canned laughter).  To get to that next level they need Best to become more of a threat – his longest run was just 9 yards.  On defense they did a great job shutting down the Bucs power running game which bodes really well for playing the Chiefs who want to gash opponents on the ground.

The line on this one has really run up throughout the week.  It was Detroit – 3.5 to start and now it is as high as -9 in some places.  At anything under -7 I was definitely behind the Lions but now it is a little too rich for my blood.  The Lions are likely to get steam until they lose a game, then you should be able to get some serious value on them.  Right now you might just want to enjoy as a fan.

ATS Pick:  KC +9
Over/Under Pick:
Score Prediction:  Detroit 31 – Kansas City 24

Venue/ Stadium: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Time/Date: 1 PM EST Saturday, September 18, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Packers -490 / Panthers +390
Spread (ATS): Packers -10
Over/Under: 47

Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers Preview

Great week 2 match up with the defending champion Green Bay Packers heading south to take on #1 draft pick Cam Newton, who was stellar in his debut, and the Carolina Panthers. Yeah, the Packers are on the road and Newton may be the real deal, but NFL lines still has Green Bay as big 10-point favorites with a total of 47.

In their opening games of the season the Packers won a barnburner 42-34 against the New Orleans Saints and the Panthers lost 28-21 to the Arizona Cardinals despite the impressive performance by Newton.

Did I say impressive? Well, Newton threw for the most yards (422) by a QB making his first start. WR Steve Smith had 178 receiving yards with 2 TD in the loss to Arizona and new addition TE Greg Olsen chimed in with 4 catches for 78 yards.

Carolina has lost 6 of their last 7 home openers.

The Packers had a great passing defense last season, but in their season opener they gave up 419 yards and 3 TD to Drew Brees and the Saints. Newton did shine in his debut, but there is one thing to touch on. The Cardinals did not want to get killed by Newton running the ball so they brought up players from the secondary to thwart that. Because of that Newton saw open passing lanes and 1-on-1 coverage. The Packers will know that and not give Cam what the Cardinals did.

Newton did not have much help from the rushing offense in week 1, as the Panthers only had 74 rushing yards with DeAngelo Williams only gaining 30 yards on 12 carries averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry. That does not live up to the big contract he signed before the season began. Also, while the Packers gave up a ton of passing yards to the Saints they only gave up 81 rushing yards. Williams needs to break out and have a good game this Sunday or the Panthers will start the season 0-2 again. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was named NFC offensive player of the week after going 27/35 passes for 312 yards and 3 TD in the win over the Saints.  This does not bode well for a Carolina team that allowed new Arizona QB Kevin Kolb to pass for 309 yards and 2 TD against them last week.

Carolina LB Jon Beason was lost for the season last week with an injury and that is a big blow since he was the anchor for the defense. The Packers rushed for 103 yards last week and the Panthers allowed the Cardinals, who have a sketchy rushing offense at best, to gallop for 99 yards.

Betting Trends

Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, and has an Under record of 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and has an Over record of 5-2-2 in their last 9 games.

Jason’s Pick: Newton may a solid QB, but the Packers are simply much better on both sides of the ball. Rodgers will not be stopped, the Pack will run the ball well, and they will play solid D. Take the packers to win this game and cover the 10-point spread. Betting trends be damned, as even though the total has gone Under in the last 6 games when the Packers are the road favorite this game will go Over the posted total of 47.

Venue/Stadium: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

Time/Date: Sunday September 18, 2011 – 8:20 PM ET

NFL Odds

Moneyline: Eagles -130

Spread (ATS): Eagles -1.5

Over/Under: 49.5

When Michael Vick left the Atlanta Falcons and the NFL for federal prison five years ago, there was little indication that he would get a second chance of living out his dream of becoming a Super Bowl champion. Fast-forward to 2011 and Vick, now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles, will make his return to the place that dream died so long ago looking to take the next step in his pursuit of an NFL championship, as part of a new “dream team”. Expectations are high for the Pro Bowl quarterback in his first full season as a starter for the Eagles, and this weekend’s Primetime showdown against the team that drafted him represents a crucial step towards reaching those goals.

For the Falcons, the bar is just as high after finishing atop the NFC with 14 wins a year ago, only to be eliminated by the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers in their lone playoff game. While Vick has thrived in his comeback with the Eagles, Atlanta hasn’t missed a beat with the development of Matt Ryan as their franchise quarterback, who they feel is ready to take another step forward this season. However, Ryan struggled in the opener at Chicago week one, turning the ball over twice and failing to reach the endzone despite throwing for 319 yards in a 30-12 loss. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

What was projected to be an explosive passing attack with the addition of rookie first round pick Julio Jones to a group that already consisted of Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez showed flashes week one, but they will need to find a way to score. The Atlanta defense looked lost at times against the Bears, and that doesn’t project well heading into a matchup against the explosive Eagles.

Despite a slow start, Philadelphia put up 403 total yards of offense in a 31-13 win at the St. Louis Rams week one, with Michael Vick accounting for 284 of those yards both on the ground and through the air, as well as two touchdown passes. Running back LeSean McCoy looked explosive with 122 yards and one score on only 15 carries, and if he gets going again this week, Atlanta will be in trouble. The Eagles’ defense allowed a touchdown on the Ram’s first possession, but held them to six points the rest of the way to give fans a taste of how good that group can be. If Philadelphia comes out firing on all cylinders again week two, then they should be able to get the job done in their first real test of the season as Vick celebrates his return in style

NFL Betting Pick: Eagles

Cleveland Browns (0-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Time/Date: 1:00 PM EST, September 18, 2011
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

Broadcast: CBS

Browns vs. Colts Gambling Odds from BetOnline

Spread: Browns -2.5

Moneyline: Browns (-135) Colts (+115)

Over/Under: 40

Peyton Manning is on the shelf for quite a while, and the Indianapolis Colts showed just how badly they miss him last weekend. The Browns were expected to roll over the lowly Bengals, but Cincinnati beat Cleveland in the season opener. Both of these teams had to be extremely disappointed with their performance in week one. Which team will bounce back with a big win?

Colt McCoy and the Browns offense just never really got it going against the Bengals defense. McCoy threw two touchdowns and one interception, but he completed only 47.5% of his passes last week. The running game really struggled to get going, because the Browns offensive front just couldn’t get much of a push against Cincinnati. Peyton Hillis continued to show his value out of the backfield. Hillis caught six passes, three more than any other Brown did last weekend. Cleveland will certainly be looking to get Hillis more than 17 carries this week against the Colts.

The Cleveland defense really blew it when they got caught napping in the fourth quarter last weekend by the Bengals. Cincinnati quick snapped while the Browns were still in the huddle, and A.J. Green was wide open for a 41 yard touchdown reception. The Browns pass defense was pretty solid for most of the game, but they did allow too many yards on the ground. Cedric Benson put up 121 yards rushing. Joe Haden and T.J. Ward lead a talented secondary for Cleveland. I expect them to be ready to bounce back this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

There were plenty of questions about how Kerry Collins would perform as the Colts starter before last weekend. After last weekend’s drubbing, there are even more questions now. Collins numbers actually weren’t that awful last week, but those who watched the game saw that this Colts offense really struggled to get into a groove last weekend. Collins had two costly fumbles, and the running game never got going at all against the Texans. Clearly this is an offense that will have to try to score in different ways without Manning at the helm. It will be interesting to see what kind of changes they make to the game plan this week.

It was the Colts run defense that really let them down last week. Despite Arian Foster being out of the lineup, Houston still ran for 167 yards. Ben Tate had 116 yards rushing in his first career start. Over the past few years, the Colts front seven has had a lot of difficulty stopping the run. Indianapolis has a solid secondary and two very god pass rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but the middle of the defense must improve against the run. They’ll be tested by Hillis and the Browns in this one.

I don’t expect the Colts to play nearly as bad as they did a week ago. The Browns secondary is pretty good, and the Colts aren’t a good running team. At the same time, I could see the Colts getting to Colt McCoy fairly often here. I think this one has the makings of an ugly low scoring game.

Free NFL Pick: Under 40