Freddy Wills World Series Handicapping Selections
This is an intriguing match up for fans as they dig the long ball! This will be the highest combination of HR’s in World Series history as the Phillies and Yankees both hit well over 200 HR this season. Both teams dominated the post season and are looking to achieve the goal they set in the beginning of the year, a World Championship.
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Freddy Wills has been your #1 handicapper all season long with his MLB POD’s cashing at the window 65% of the time for a profit of $125$730 with a record of 109-59!. He has continued that success on sports picks in the playoffs with a 6-4 record and will do so in Game #1 with a 5-Dime selection. Read the full preview below and find out who he thinks has the advantage in this series.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
Series odds: Yankees -190
Pitching
The Yankees have the best overall starter in CC Sabathia who was 12-2 after the all star break. After that the Yankees open up to A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettite, and Joba or Chad Gaudin who was very solid down the stretch. It seems as though the Yankees will go to a three man rotation with Burnett and Pettite both going on 3 days rest rather than putting Gaudin out there. This could in the end hurt them as Burnett did not look particularly solid during his 2nd start against the Angels. However, he will face Pedro Martinez in Game #2. Advantage is Burnett there, but Pedro has been solid in the playoffs so far. Are the Yankees still his Daddy?
For the Phillies they come with Game #1 starter Cliff Lee followed by Pedro Martinez, Cole Hamels and then Game 4 could be open to Blanton, or J.A. Happ. This team could even go to a 5 man rotation which has been rumored, but I doubt that as I believe they will bring back Lee in Game 4 and then go on from there. In my opinion Lee needs 3 starts in this series to win it in Game #7. I also think they will be using Blanton and Happ out of long relief at some point in this series.
Bullpen advantage to the Yankees. Seems very obvious with the best closer in MLB history and post season history in the closer role for the Yankees in Mariano Rivera. Girardi used him for a 6 out save and he came up big. There were other times where he got into jams with a runner on third and zero outs and the Angels still could not force a run across the plate. Yankees are #1 this post season in bullpen ERA and it’s the strength of this pitching staff. The Phillies on the other hand still have some questions, but Lidge seems to have rebounded from his season struggles and has been solid so far this post season. However, he blew two saves to the Yankees earlier in the year in what may have cost him his confidence for the rest of the season. He is going to have to be perfect for the Phillies to force a game #7.
Edge: Yankees
Hitting
This is a series where two teams have a combined 466 home runs from the regular season. This is not a match up you see often in World Series history. Both teams have relied heavily on the home run this year, and that hasn’t changed in the playoffs. The difference is New York can get on base without the long ball. Each team hit 14 long balls in the first two rounds.
The teams’ respective sluggers are hot right now, but I think New York’s Alex Rodriguez will have the advantage in the post season and it’s because Ryan Howard will have to go up against two tough lefties in Andy Pettite and CC Sabathia making it much harder on him. ARod is batting .438 with five homers and 12 RBIs.
On top of Howard’s dominance, the Phillies have also received plenty of help from Jayson Werth (5HR, 10 RBIs), Shane Victorino (.346 average) and Carlos Ruiz (.361) have also done well while Rollins had a key moment with a walk off double in the NLCS.
However, you can’t leave out the Yankee sluggers who have the post season experience especially in the World Series. The list includes Jeter, Damon, Posada all having key World Series experience in multiple games. In the end it’s going to be the team that can come up with the most clutch hits.
Edge: even
Intangibles: what you can not see!
Yankees are owner of the best record at home in baseball and has home field advantage and has won 2 of 3 from the Phillies earlier in the year. Yankees are 41-10 in their last 51 home games overall while the Phillies were one of the better road teams this year. What is not on paper is the time off each team has had. The Phillies might be rusty after 6 days off while the Yankees should have all the momentum with 2 days off. If you remember teams of the past the Tigers in 2006 with 8 days off and the Rockies of 2007 with 6 days off did not fair that well. However, the Phillies had 6 days off last year and they cruised onto a World Series championship.
Edge: Yankees
Pick: Yankees in 7 games
It’s time for the Yankees to get another World Series in my opinion. The clutch hitting and the come backs have been there all year reminding me of the Yankees in the late 90’s. This team just has the “it.” They beat a very very good Angels team and while the Phillies are a little different I don’t think they have the pitching depth the Angels had. Bottom line the Phillies offense keeps them in this series long enough to get the wins and the Yankees rotation will get a dud out of Burnett and Pettite in one of their two starts. However, in the end the clutch hitting and the bullpen performance will favor the Yankees giving them a Game 7 win back at the stadium.
