2011 NBA Finals Betting Preview – Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat
The Western Conference Champion Dallas Mavericks will square-off against the Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat in a best-of-seven series for this season’s NBA World Title. The first two games of this series will be played at the American Airlines Arena in Miami starting this Tuesday night. The series then shifts to the American Airlines Center in Dallas for games three, four, and five. The final two games would be back in Miami if necessary.
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The NBA’s final is in place as the Eastern Conference Champs Miami Heat play the Western Conference champs the Dallas Mavs. Here is a brief preview of each conference match-up along with the current odds for each team to win it all.
Bodog.com has opened the Mavericks at +150 and the Heat at -170 to win this year’s title. Dallas is 4 ½-point road underdog in Game 1 with the ‘over/under’ set at 187. The odds for a four game sweep are set at 18/1 for Dallas and 9/1 for Miami. The odds that the series goes a full seven games with the Mavs winning are 13/2 and 3/1 for the Heat to win it all. The ‘over/under’ for total games played in the series is listed at 5 ½ with the price on the ‘over’ at -220 and at +180 for the ‘under’.
Dallas’s road to the NBA Finals started with a first round matchup against Portland, which actually proved to be its toughest. The No.3 seed Mavericks needed six games to eliminate the pesky Trail Blazers after losing games three and four on the road. Their second-round matchup against the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers proved to be a walk in the park as the Mavs swept the Lakers in four straight games. Oklahoma City captured home court advantage with a 121-112 win in Game 2 as a six-point road underdog, but Dallas never wavered by recording three straight victories over the Thunder to wrap up the Western Conference Title in five games.
The Mavericks are 12-3 straight-up and 12-2-1 against the spread this postseason. They are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS at home and 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS on the road. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of its 15 games; five of eight at home and four of seven on the road.
Miami started its run to the Finals by taking out Philadelphia in five games in round one. The Heat proved they were for real with a five-game series win over Boston in the second. They went on to win the East by beating Chicago four straight times after losing Game 1 on the road 103-82 as a 2 ½-point underdog.
The Heat are also 12-3 SU this postseason and 10-5 ATS. They are a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home and 4-3 both SU and ATS on the road. The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of Miami’s 15 games overall. It has gone ‘over’ in six of its eight home games and in three of seven on the road.
Dallas will look to Dirk Nowitzki to try and finally bring home an elusive world title for this franchise. Nowitzki has been a force this postseason with 28.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists a game. Jason Terry has come off the bench to chip in 17.3 points and 3.2 assists a game, while the veteran leadership of Jason Kidd (9.9 points and 7.7 assists a game) also helped secure the Mavs first appearance in the Finals since 2006.
LeBron James has been the main man for Miami. He is putting up an average of 26 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 5.5 assists a game in the playoffs. Dwyane Wade was not at his best in the series against the Bulls, but he is still averaging 23.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.1 assists a game. Chris Bosh rounds out Miami’s ‘Big Three’ with 18.6 points and 8.9 rebounds. This three-headed monster has accounted for close to 74 percent of the Heats’ points in the playoffs.
The outcome of this series will most likely come down to which team’s top star shines the brightest. The advantage on paper goes to James because a stronger supporting cast, but do not underestimate the Mavericks’ chances to pull off the upset. There has only been one Game 7 in this year’s NBA postseason, but you get the feeling that this one is going the distance. When it is all said and done, the Heat’s ‘Big Three’ get their first title, but Nowitzki and the Mavs make them earn it.
Series Prediction: Miami in seven games
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One reply on “2011 NBA Finals Betting Preview”
“”The outcome of this series will most likely come down to which team’s top star shines the brightest.”” Very true Dave, but has there EVER been a better shooting big man?