Marc Lawrence’s 2009 ACC Football Preview

ACC CONFERENCE 2009 FOOTBALL PREVIEW

Marc Lawrence • PLAYBOOK.com

When you walk in the shadows of the most well known basketball conference in the nation, it’s difficult creating your own identity.

Give ACC football its props. They are branding an image that is leaving other football conferences green-eyed.

Last year the ACC sent an NCAA record 10 teams to bowl games and, since 2005, have produced more bowl teams than any conference in the nation. Its 41-17 (.707) mark in non-conference games last season was the best ever in ACC history.

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NC State QB Russell Wilson leads the nation in interception avoidance with one INT in 275 pass attempts. As a result, Wilson was the first freshman signal caller to ever earn first-team ACC honors last year. Virginia Tech leads the land in total team defense since 2004, allowing an average 263 YPG.

Yes, there is a lot to like about the ACC on the gridiron these days. Heck, if NCAA football gods ever wake up an employ a playoff, we might even find an ACC team making to the Final Four more during more than just March Madness.

Here is my take on the ACC for 2009.

Returning starters are listed alongside each team’s name (returning QB’s designated with an *).

Enjoy…

ACC
BOSTON COLLEGE – 7 / 7

Team Theme – LOVE POTION No. 9

Little did we realize when we called for a sophomore slump for Eagle head coach Jeff Jagodzinski last season it would lead to his dismissal. The slump never occurred but the pink slip did when, after negotiating for an NFL job, he was shown the door. Former DC Frank Spaziani now calls the shots. He’s been to 20 bowl games as a coach, the last 10 with the Eagles. Coach Spaz, is frequently referred to as the “mad scientist” because of his fondness for cooking up plays in his lab. He’ll need all the concoctions he can muster when his troops square off against no less than 9 bowl teams in 2009. Last year’s loss to Vanderbilt in the Music City Bowl snapped an 8-year bowl and a 21-game non-conference game win skeins. The lab is open.

PLAY ON: vs. Virginia Tech (10/10) – *KEY

CLEMSON – 7 / 8

Team Theme – THE NAME GAME

It was a tough year for the Tommy’s in college football’s head coaching fraternity last season with Amstutz, Bowden and Tuberville all taking the pipe. Enter William Christopher ‘Dabo’ Swinney, who relieved Tommy Bowden at mid-season last year. When the final numbers came in, Swinney had improved the defense 38 net YPG from the numbers he inherited. He also led them to the Gator Bowl. This year, he brings in new DC Kevin Steele ($375K per) from Alabama. With 8 starters back on defense, led by DE Rickey Sapp, Swinney can sleep at night knowing the stop troops are solid and his job is safe. We’ll excuse him if he is awakened occasionally by this nightmare – he has lost his top QB, RB and WR and all 5 of his away games are against bowl teams. Thank goodness ‘Dabo’ is not just another Tommy.

PLAY ON: vs. Florida State (11/7) – *KEY +7 or more points

DUKE – *5 / 5

Team Theme -THE CUTCLIFFE COMBINE

At first glance, the Blue Devils looked like another also-ran in the ACC last year. A 1-7 record in the conference was one more win than they recorded the previous three seasons combined. In fact, the four wins overall in 2008 equaled as many victories as the previous four seasons combined. It should also be noted that five losses last year were by a combined total of 36 points. Sure, they suffer more returning starter losses than any team in the ACC and there are only two scholarship seniors on the entire offense, but this team improved 48 places in turnovers last season. That’s a tribute to head coach David Cutcliffe. “We’re certainly not a great team, but I think we’re a good football team,” contends Cutcliffe. Combined with the return of 2nd team all-ACC SR QB Thaddeus Lewis, that’s good enough for us.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Wake Forest (11/28)

FLORIDA STATE – *8 / 5

Team Theme – GREATEST GRANDPA

Somehow you get the feeling that this could be the final victory lap for Bobby Bowden, one of the best dad-gum coaches in the history of college football. With Jimbo Fisher waiting in the wings and the grandkids busy making babies, Bowden’s days appear numbered. Speaking of numbers, he trails 82-year old Joe Paterno, 383-382, in the race to the finish line for most victories in major college football. While having the luxury of all five starters back on the offensive line is good news, the opposite end of the seesaw is a defense that loses its top three tacklers. Morbid news was delivered by the schedule-maker with the announcement that the Seminoles square off against no less than 11 bowl teams in 2009. That begs the question: Is the nation’s longest bowl streak (27 straight games) in jeopardy? Not as long as it’s Bobby Bo – not Jimbo – roaming the sidelines.

PLAY ON: vs. Georgia Tech (10/10)

GEORGIA TECH – *9 / 7

Team Theme – CASTING A PAUL OVER THE ACC

Now here’s a team, and a coach, into which we can sink our teeth. On the heels of last season’s impressive debut under new head mentor Paul Johnson (116-43 as a head coach, including 23-10 ATS as a visitor), the Techsters return the most starters and lettermen of any team in the ACC this year. Heading the cast is conference player of the year, RB Jonathon Dwyer. In case you weren’t aware, 75 players on Georgia Tech’s roster were either freshmen or sophomores last year, including A-Back Roddy Jones who averaged a whopping 8.5 Yards Per Rush. All of which led Johnson to say, “We’ve got 19 starters coming back… the offense is light years ahead of last year. We feel good about our football team.” A tentatively tough schedule features nine opponents with winning records last season. Rest assured, that won’t slow this juggernaut down.

PLAY ON: vs. Virginia (10/24)

MARYLAND – *6 / 4

Team Theme – THE HARES WERE THERE

When push came to shove and the final numbers were in, Ralph Friedgen knew he made the correct choice. He didn’t want to surrender his offensive coordinator duties last season, but he also knew that he needed to concentrate on a schedule laden with 8 opponents that enjoyed winning seasons the previous year. It paid dividends when the Terrapins won 8 games while beating 4 straight ranked teams in the process. They also managed 5 SU underdog victories. This year, they take on an equally tough schedule minus the services of 31 lettermen lost either to graduation or early exits, the most in the ACC. JR RB Da’rel Scott, a first-team ACC performer who rushed for 1133 yards last season, leads the charges. Last year, the Turtles shocked the Hares with upset after upset. This year, the Rabbits get even.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Clemson (10/3)

MIAMI FLORIDA – 8 / 8

Team Theme – MIAMI NICE

Randy Shannon could care less about his 12-13 record with Miami. Instead, he’s entirely focused on the young phenoms he recruited a year ago. Because only 2 players started all 13 games last year, Shannon played 21 true freshmen in 2008, the 2nd most in the nation. New OC Mark Whipple, a highly regarded assistant coach with Philadelphia Eagles, inherits a deep wide receiver corps and a solid running back tandem in Greg Cooper and Javarris James. With Robert Mavre gone, QB Jacory Harris leads the players that joined him from the Florida state high school championship team he guided two years ago. New DC John Lovett (Clemson) inherits a defense that improved 30 YPG last year. If the Canes can get past a brutal opening schedule that pits them against 4 foes that won 40 games combined last year, they’ll transform Shannon into the winner that he is.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Oklahoma (10/3)

NORTH CAROLINA – *6 / 3

Team Theme – HIGH HEELS

The effect Butch Davis has had on the Tar Heels is clear. His first team went 3-9 but, just two years later, he had Carolina in a bowl game. UNC won 8 games last year (double the amount of the previous season) and could have had more (of the five losses, four were by three or less points) with a fortunate bounce or two. With seven home games on this year’s itinerary and 15 starters back, it’s easy to understand why they are on such a high in Chapel Hill these days. A word of warning, though. The Heels allowed 43 YPG more than they gained last season and lost the stats in 8 of 13 games. That is often a red flag for ascending teams, especially one that will be tackling eight opponents that appeared in bowl games last year. Beware of the heights.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Connecticut (9/12)

NORTH CAROLINA STATE – *7 / 7

Team Theme – HOWLING AT THE MOON

An injury-plagued 2-6 start did not deter the Wolfpack from earning a bowl bid last year. Had super-frosh QB Russell Wilson not been injured just before the half of the Papajohns.com bowl game against Rutgers, NC State would likely have ended the campaign on a 5-game win skein – all as underdogs! In fact, the Pack was the only bowl participant that was not favored in any game last season. Led by Wilson, who did not toss an interception in his final 249 passes and is the only freshman QB to ever win 1st team all-ACC honors, the Wolves return 14 starters from last year’s pack. While they open the 2009 season with 4 straight home games, they will square off against nine opponents that played in a bowl game last year. As long as they are dogs, they won’t care.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. North Carolina (11/28) – *KEY if -4 or more points

VIRGINIA – *6 / 6

Team Theme – CHINESE TO GO

Al Groh certainly understands the yin and yang of college football. Two years ago his team won an NCAA record five games by two or fewer points before blowing a late lead and losing by a field goal in the Gator Bowl. That season was followed by a 1-3 start, a 4-0 mid-season spurt, and then a 0-4 finish. Immediately after that topsy-turvy ride, Groh hired Greg Brandon, the former Bowling Green head coach, to mastermind the offense. Brandon, an innovator of the spread offense, will hand the keys to the offense to JR QB Mark Verica, last year’s starter, or SR QB James Sewell, the starter in 2007 who sat out last season. Taking on nine opponents that played in bowl games last season, the Cavs can only hope the egg rolls of their faces this season following last year’s debacle.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. TCU (9/12)

VIRGINIA TECH – *8 / 7

Team Theme – ON THE BEAM

All in all, last year might well have been the best job of coaching by Frank Beamer in his accomplished 22-year career with the Hokies. He guided an inexperienced squad to its second-straight ACC title and 3rd in 5 years. It couldn’t have been even better. The four losses suffered by Beamer’s bunch in 2008 were by an average 5.5 PPG. To no one’s surprise, he did it the old fashioned way – with defense. In case you weren’t aware of it, the Hokies own the top ranked defense in the FBS since 2004, allowing an average 263 YPG. That’s why they are one of only three teams in the country, along with Texas and USC, to win 10 or more games over that same span. Sure, they will take on nine teams that played in bowl games last year, but don’t let that stop you from running with a winner.

PLAY ON: vs. Miami Florida (9/26) – *KEY if off a loss

WAKE FOREST – *9 / 4

Team Theme – BY THE SKIN OF THEIR TEETH

When the most accurate passer in conference history is excited about his wide receivers, it’s generally a sign of good things to come. Last year, Wake’s offense was a mix between the spread and the I-formation, to which head coach Jim Grobe responded, “We’re so mixed up we don’t know which way to go.” A good indication of which way the Demons are headed in 2009 came from SR QB Riley Skinner, whose .673 career completion percentage is the best ever in the ACC. He said, “We’re probably deeper at receiver than we’ve ever been.” The fact that four of Wake’s five losses last year were by an average losing margin of 5 PPG is another testament to Skinner’s prowess. It’s no surprise this senior class owns the best record of any class in school history. Grobe knows his team is in good hands.

PLAY ON: vs. NC State (10/3)

Coming up next: the BIG EAST CONFERENCE.

Note: Marc Lawrence is a 30-year veteran handicapper. He finished No.1 in the nation (88-63 +25.7 Net Units) in MLB during the 2007 season as documented by Sports Watch in Las Vegas.

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