Belmont Stakes Prop Betting Special
Does it seem absurd to bet on props in the Belmont Stakes instead of the straight up race? Well, considering we’re wagering on tiny men riding beasts around a track, it shouldn’t. We’re through two legs in the 2010 Triple Crown.
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What: 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes
Date: June 5, 2010
Location: Belmont Park, Elmont NY
Post Time: First race is 11:35 a.m. / Stakes: Post Time Approximately 6:32 p.m.
Let’s not kid ourselves; this year’s Belmont Stakes field is a bit subpar. We have no Triple Crown race winners and just four Kentucky Derby participants racing this Saturday.
The good news is that the race is wide open as a result and it sets up for some fun prop bets.
Here are a few to try.
ODDS TO WIN THE 2010 BELMONT STAKES
Dave in Dixie: +2500
Spangled Star: +3000
Uptowncharlybrown: +1200
Make Music For Me: +900
Fly Down: +500
Ice Box: +250
Drosselmeyer: +1500
Game On Dude: +1000
Stately Victor: +1200
Stay Put: +2500
First Dude: +375
Interactif: +1200
OK, so it’s not a typical “prop,” but we’ll open with my pick for the race. First Dude has plenty of supporters and the “big name” horse of the field, Derby runner-up Ice Box, is the favorite. But I like his stablemate Fly Down. He’s the only horse in the field to win on the Belmont surface before, he prepared for Saturday by running three straight nine-furlong races and he even left Belmont contender Drosselmeyer behind by sixth lengths when he won the Dwyer-G2.
Pick: Fly Down +500
WHAT WILL THE WINNING TIME BE?
Break record of 2:24:00: +10000
2:24.00 to 2:25.00: +5000
2:25.01 to 2:26.00: +1200
2:26.01 to 2:27.00: +300
2:27.01 to 2:28.00: +200
2:28.01 to 2:29.00: +175
2:29.01 and above: +300
Notice how all the slower times are favored? Those odds reflect the perceived weakness of the field. I would lean toward picking a slower time considering that even the top contenders aren’t particularly accomplished and there hasn’t been buzz about any one horse truly “wowing” with Beyer Speed Figures leading up to this weekend. 
Pick: 2:27.01 to 2:28.00 +200
MARGIN OF VICTORY
Over 1.5 lengths: -115
Under 1.5 lengths: -115
Some bettors will immediately leap on the UNDER, presuming that a weaker field automatically means a close race. I disagree. To me, a weaker field means any horse that happens to be “on” this Saturday could totally annihilate the competition. I wholeheartedly expect a victory margin OVER 1.5 lengths.
Pick: Over 1.5 lengths -115
FAVORITES HEAD TO HEAD
Ice Box: -125
First Dude: -105
The overall race favorite Ice Box is predictably favored to best the No. 2 favorite First Dude. Call me crazy, but I think Ice Box will be a minor disappointment in the Belmont Stakes. His running style is very specific and, sometimes, limiting. He starts slowly and likes to close on opponents late. The problem is that any race that doesn’t fit his specific comfort zone – say, one with lots of traffic in the pack or one in which the field sets a rapid pace – doesn’t suit Ice Box. What are the odds that the Belmont ends up tailored perfectly to his strengths? I’d lean toward First Dude for that reason.
Pick: First Dude -105
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