The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.
The Badgers have to be the team that nobody wants to play. You look at them on tape and say to yourselves we should beat this team no problem and then before you have broken a sweat you are in a barroom brawl and they have got you totally off your game.
#19 Oregon Ducks (23-6) vs Colorado Buffaloes (19-9)
Thursday March 7
Coors Events Center
9:00PM
Moneyline: No ML currently listed at Betonline
Spread: Colorado -3.5
O/U: 129
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They never could have imagined to be in this position given the talent at UCLA and Arizona.
The Ducks do have talent they just don’t have much in the way of star power.
Their leading scorer – E.J. Singler – is more known as the little brother of a former champion and quite frankly nobody stands out statistically save their transfer 6th man, Arsalan Kazemi, who is half a point and .1 rebound away from averaging a double-double. This team is unselfish and has depth and it is paying off even if they don’t have a true lead dog.
Oregon may lead the conference but they are far from a dominant team, which is why it is no surprise they are an underdog Thursday.
Normally a conference leader on the road in this situation, with revenge, would scream to punch it but I am not a big fan of the Ducks and think that joint will be rocking enough to push the team to a pretty easy victory. [ad-6571516]
The Buffs have come along of late. They are over .500 in the conference and their next win will be their 20th. They definitely need this game more than Oregon does and if that doesn’t motivate them than I don’t know what will. Colorado beat Oregon on the road earlier this season and a sweep for the year would speak volumes for this team that has been close so many times.
The real question is how deep into the conference will the selection committee go.
The NBA talent may not be there but I like the lineup the Buffaloes put out there. Andre Roberson is a rebounding savant and Spencer Dinwiddie is a scoring point with some size that can cause matchup problems. They aren’t blessed with a ton of size inside or outside shooting but they make it work.
Tad Boyle might be one of the more underrated coaches in America as this team competes really hard most nights.
I am probably too high on Colorado now, and for the whole season really. I watched that spirit crusher at Arizona and it inflated the Buffs in my mind even though Zona did not turn out be a juggernaut. If they can’t get up for this one then they don’t deserve to be a part of March Madness.
They will keep their name in the hunt for another week with this one.
Spread Pick: Colorado -3.5
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Colorado 74 – Oregon 67
This isn’t a vintage North Carolina team but they have probably done enough to be considered one of the top 68 teams in the country.
Georgetown just won’t stop losing. They caught some attention when they challenged Indiana in non-conference and since Big East play started they have been on a major role.
Even with the addition of Missouri the SEC is still kind of light this season. Alabama and Mississippi are fighting to prove that the league is worthy of multiple bids and this game could be critical to both of these team’s chances.
The Buckeyes are in a 4 way tie for second place in the Big Ten. All 4 of those teams are ranked and I think that Ohio State is probably the worst of the bunch. They have won their last three games but have not beaten any ranked opponents on the road this season.
The Bearcats have not been playing well of late, squandering some of the early season goodwill they were generating. They won their last game against Connecticut and a win against Louisville would definitely prove they are worthy of an invitation to the Big Dance.
Being a top ranked team is dangerous territory this season. More than half of the top 5 teams in the nation have already lost this week so a win by the Canes will push them back up into some rarified are.
Despite being in the top 10 no one is talking much about Louisville these days. They are second in the Big East and depending on how things break they could wind up winning the conference and earning a top seed. They have won their last 4 games but have not played a top team in a while.
A battle between the two newbies of the Atlantic -10 (amidst rumours of Butler jumping ship to the soon to be newly formed Big East). Butler has the higher ranking but find themselves a game behind the Rams in the conference standings.
Thursday February 28
Marriott Center – Provo, UT
11:00PM
Moneyline: No ML currently listed
Spread: Gonzaga -6
O/U: 147
Gonzaga
That is not a mistake, the Gonzaga Bulldogs are the second ranked team in the nation. They are undefeated in West Coast Conference and have rattled off 10 wins in a row since they last lost at Butler. The first of those wins was a home blowout of BYU by 20 points. With Indiana and Michigan already losing this week there is the very real prospect that this “mid major” from the WCC could be the top ranked team in the nation.
It is no fluke either. Center Kelly Olynyk is one of the most productive bigs in the nation this year averaging 17 points and 7 board which don’t blow you away but when you factor in that he plays just 25 minutes per game – they are just awesome. I also love their backcourt of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell. Neither are big but they make smart plays more often than not and can shoot. Senior forward Elias Harris provides veteran leadership and is hungry too.
Gonzaga is a good bet – 15-11 ATS. A look at their conference results shows only two games where the spread has been as close as the -6 they are getting right now. Both were victories, one at home and one on the road, while being ATS losses. When St. Mary’s pushed the Zags it wasn’t a total surprise, this one might be.
BYU
This game is a huge opportunity for the Cougars. They have already notched 20 victories but none are of the signature variety. They are in third place in the WCC and are 0-3 against the top two teams – Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. A win over the Zags would punch their ticket for sure and the Marriott Center, which is an underrated place to play, should be rocking on Thursday night. There will be electricity in the air.
The Cougars have some nice headliners but not nearly as much depth as the Zags. Guard Tyler Haws is one of the more unsung players in the nation. He is 11th in scoring, part of a very small group of players averaging more than 20ppg. Power forward Brandon Davies received attention a couple of years ago for an honour code violation and has evolved to become a very effective power forward, averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds per game. After those two regular production is spotty.
In their first game against Gonzaga the Cougars were 10 point dogs and lost by 20. A similar doubling seems very likely unless they can use the homecourt advantage and some great shooting to press the Zags. If they can keep it close maybe the Zags makes a mistake. They might be number 1 next week but they aren’t there yet. Can they keep it together.
Spread Pick: Gonzaga -6
O/U Pick: Under
Score Prediction: Gonzaga 80 – BYU 63
The Aztecs postseason position should be secure but this win would only help. It would give them an outside shot at the Mountain West regular season crown and a sweep over the Lobos for the season – they are the only ranked team they have beaten this year.
This isn’t a conference game but the Memphis Tigers are one of a handful of teams that are still undefeated in conference play.
Syracuse lost at home to Georgetown on Saturday, dropping them from the top of the Big East standings.
The Lobos are leading the Mountain West Conference with a 9-2 record – both of those losses were on the road against top competition (UNLV and San Diego State).
Despite a string of three straight unexpected losses the Jayhawks are still in the top 10 in the country.
