NHL Free Picks Online

The Flyers head to Buffalo on Wednesday looking to build on back-to-back wins, while the Sabres return home after a road trip where every game went to extra time. Philadelphia is getting plus money against a short home favorite that has already allowed 3.57 goals a night.

Wednesday night in Buffalo is not a spot you want to lay juice. The Sabres are a short home favorite against a Flyers team that just won two straight, including a 3-2 win over Colorado on Monday. Philadelphia is 2-6-3 and still scoring like a team that forgot where the net is most nights (1.55 goals per game), but they are getting plus money on the road after beating a good club. The market is pricing the building and the name. That is the classic tax. The points are the side.

At +160 the implied probability is 38.5 percent. Buffalo’s true win rate in this spot sits closer to 55–58 percent once you account for Philadelphia’s last two wins and the Sabres’ 3.57 goals against. That leaves a 4–6 percent edge before the juice even gets involved. At -110 the house takes its cut; at +160 the number is the argument. You are not buying a miracle. You are buying a price the market has not fully adjusted for.

Buffalo is 4-3-2, averaging 3.00 goals while allowing 3.57. Their penalty kill has been a mess early, and they just finished a road trip where every game went to extra time. Philadelphia’s last two wins came against Ottawa and Colorado. They are still near the bottom of the league in shots and scoring, but a short home favorite of -175 or worse against a club that just beat the Avalanche is not a number that needs to be laid just because KeyBank Center has a logo. Plus money is the work. Laying the juice is the donation.

Bet the road team getting plus money against a short home favorite of -175 or worse when both teams are under .550 on the season.
Road underdogs of +140 or longer against home favorites of -175 or shorter when both clubs sit under .550 points percentage (since the early 1980s): 41-29 (58.6%). At -110, 41 wins and 29 losses is +9.3 unit$, ROI=13.3%. Philadelphia is the road dog. That is the look.

Buffalo has been leaky at home more often than the number admits. Their last five games produced four that went to overtime or a shootout, and they have already allowed 3.57 a night. Philadelphia has scored three in back-to-back games for the first time this season. A short home favorite against a team that just beat Colorado is the side the public wants. The price is the argument the market does not want to give you. Fade the chalk. Take the plus.

Shop the number. If you can get +150 or better, the value is cleaner. If it drops to +140, the edge shrinks but does not vanish. Confirm the crease. A backup in Buffalo changes the side; a backup in Philadelphia does not. The house does not care that the Flyers are still under .500. The number is the argument. The midweek profile is the work. Philadelphia getting plus money is the side that actually sits on this board.

Flyers at Sabres — Best Player Props (Wednesday, 7:30 ET)

Buffalo is a short home favorite. Philadelphia just scored three in back-to-back wins. The total sits around 5.5–6. That combination usually produces one or two clean prop tickets rather than a full menu. The work is volume and form, not the public favorite. Shop the number. A juice line turns a good prop into a tax.

Tage Thompson over 3.5 shots, about -102 to -110.
Thompson has 42 shots in nine games (4.67 per night) and is projected near 3.43 against Philadelphia. He is the highest-volume shooter on the board and plays 20 minutes a night. Buffalo’s power play has been quiet, but the shot volume does not need a power play to cash. At even money or better this is the cleanest over on the card. If it moves to 4.5 at plus money, take it. If the juice walks past -130, leave it.

Matvei Michkov anytime goal scorer, +230 to +250.
Michkov has six goals in eleven games and just scored twice against Colorado. He has four goals and five assists in five career games against Buffalo. Philadelphia’s offense is still limited, but Michkov has been the one player scoring. A plus-money anytime on a forward who has already beaten this building is the price. At -150 it becomes a tax. At +230 it is the work.

Tage Thompson over 0.5 points, -250 or shorter only.
Thompson has nine points in nine games. The number is juiced for a reason. Pass if it is -280 or worse. The shot total is the cleaner ticket.

Leave the 0.5 goal unders on secondary Flyers forwards. Leave a short-priced anytime on a Sabres defenseman. Confirm the starting goalies. A backup in either crease changes the shot volume more than the side. The house does not care that Buffalo is the home favorite. The number is the argument. Thompson’s shots and Michkov’s anytime are the two that actually sit on this board

My selection is on Ottawa over Florida at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Panthers enter this game riding high off three straight wins including a decisive 8-3 victory over Seattle on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Senators have lost two of their last three games including a 3-1 setback in Philadelphia on Saturday. This is obviously one of the most anticipated games on the schedule with Brady Tkachuk returning to Ottawa to face his former team. There is sure to be a little extra juice in the building and I like the Senators chances of ending the Panthers winning streak. Ottawa's power play has been an issue in the early going this season but it should be able to get on track against a Florida team that ranks 30th in penalty minutes and a middling 16th in penalty killing to date. Take Ottawa (8*).