Free Week 4 Prediction: Falcons vs. Browns NFL Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns Free NFL Week 4 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Browns on Sunday, October 2nd, 2022 at Mercedez-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta – Cleveland matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
Atlanta Falcons (1-2) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-1)
Date: Sunday, October 2nd, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Mercedez-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
NFL Week 4 ATS Betting Lines: Falcons +1.5 (-110) | Browns -1.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 4 Moneyline Odds: Falcons +101 | Browns -124
NFL Week 4 NFL Betting Total: O/U 49.5
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Atlanta rolls into week 4 with the confidence of their first win of the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland exorcised the demons of their astonishing week 2 loss by taking down Pittsburgh on TNF.
Atlanta and Cleveland both did a great job of putting their respective seasons back on the rails. Though the Browns would have dropped to just 1-2 with a loss to Pittsburgh, it was imperative to not let a historic loss to the Jets turn into 2 losses and so on. For Atlanta, dropping to 0-3 would have been a death knell to their young 2022 campaign.
Staying in the moment also works the opposite direction. Securing a win in week 3 doesn’t guarantee a week 4 win and coaches are largely graded on their ability to keep a team focused throughout a season. There are no “gimme’s” in the NFL.
“Be where your feet are” -Scott M. O’Neil
Atlanta Falcons
It was a bird buffet for me in week 3, after the Falcons made me eat crow, beating the Seahawks in Seattle, 27-23.
Perhaps there’s no bigger surprise this season than Cordarrelle Patterson continuing his career renaissance. He was able to run for a healthy 141 yards on 17 carries (8.3 ypc) and a score. Atlanta rarely faced a 3rd down but still managed to convert 4/7, no doubt in part due to Patterson.
Of the fantasy community’s top concern is Kyle Pitts. Atlanta changed course last week, targeting Pitts 8 times, resulting in 5 catches for 87 yards. Drake London scored the only receiving touchdown of the game, continuing the hot start to his rookie campaign. The USC product has been the featured pass catcher and it will likely stay that way. Though, he may draw Denzel Ward this week.
Marcus Mariota has been effective this year, rating 8th in EPA/play. The 8th year signal caller has struggled with turnovers this season with 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles, putting him on pace for 28 turnovers. Cleveland ranks a mere 23rd in total defense by DVOA and could be without Myles Garrett this week, following his car crash.
Atlanta’s defense has certainly not done them any favors, surrendering 27 points per game. The Falcons have generated the 4th least amount of pressure this season and giving the opposing QB plenty of time usually isn’t a formula for success.
Cleveland Browns
Jacoby Brissett needed to be nothing more than serviceable at QB as as they wait for Deshaun Watson to return after his 11 game suspension. Credit to Jacoby, he’s been far more than serviceable, ranking 7th in EPA/play and leading the Browns to the 3rd best offense by DVOA. I was impressed Thursday night with his zip and location.
Cleveland is far more known for their rushing attack however. The Browns lead the NFL in rushing yards per game with 190.7 and sit just outside the top 10 in offensive line yards. They’ll face an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in rushing defense by DVOA.
Though Cleveland has a lot of pieces, I already mentioned it’s likely they’ll be without Myles Garrett this week. Setting the edge will be important against a mobile quarterback like Mariota. They haven’t really faced a dual-threat QB this season so it’s difficult to tell exactly how they’ll perform, but they are poor 29th in defensive line yards.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
- Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing Cleveland
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: Browns -1.5
Neither squad should have trouble scoring points in this affair and it’s reflected in the total of 49.5.
Brissett has been fantastic this season and gets a great matchup against a team that has allowed the second most passing touchdowns on the year. Having Myles Garrett is important, but he’s not necessarily a decision-swinging player.
Mariota has put up decent numbers to start the year, but his turnovers remain a concern. His rushing ability has to be considered, but I expect Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah’s hybrid skill set to translate into an effective spy. It will be up to Greg Newsome and Denzel Ward to slow down Pitts and London.
Cleveland is the better team. On the road though, it’s a different ballgame. What this comes down to for me is coaching. I give the edge to Stefanski over Arthur Smith to keep his team in the moment. Atlanta was 0-4 ATS last season as home underdogs, failing to cover the spread by an average of 6.9 points.
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