Free NCAA Football Prediction: Penn State vs. Northwestern Odds
Looking for Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats free picks? College football betting sees the Nittany Lions taking on the Wildcats on Saturday, October 1st, 2022, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Nittany Lions – Wildcats free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (1-3)
Date: Saturday, October 1st, 2022
Time: 3:30 pm EST
Venue: Beaver Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Nittany Lions -25.5 / Wildcats +25.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Penn State -4595 / Northwestern +1498
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 52.0
Penn State (4-0) looks to keep pace with Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten East, while Northwestern looks to continue an undefeated Big Ten streak of their own.
The Big Ten is a harsh world. Penn State still recruits very well, they remain a prestigious program and make a bowl game nearly every year, but they just can’t get past Ohio State. The Big Ten East standings usually descend from the Buckeyes, but James Franklin and the Nittany Lions look to change that this year.
On the other side of the Big Ten, in the West, Northwestern is the scrappy underdog that overachieves and resembles their head coach, Pat Fitzgerald. This year they’ll have to get past upstart Minnesota and Big Ten West mainstay, Wisconsin if they want to take a trip to Indianapolis
Penn State Nittany Lions
A large reason Penn State has gotten to this point has been the performance of the defense, but give credit to QB Sean Clifford. Though he’s been criticized his fair share throughout his tenure, he’s done a nice job running the offense (12 TD) while limiting giveaways (1 int). His efficiency has led to Penn State scoring a touchdown on 45.5% of drives, good for 15th in the country.
RB Nicholas Singleton has averaged 9.0 ypc this season, which is astounding considering the offensive line is a poor 110th in stuff rate. It shows his elusive ability, even with traffic at the line of scrimmage and the backfield.
Penn State ranks 4th in explosiveness, no doubt in part due to Singleton’s high yards per carry average. The Nittany Lions rank top 40 in passing explosiveness as well and owe it to their leading wideout Parker Washington. TE Brenton Strange is right behind him and is tied with WR Mitchell Tinsley for a team-high 3 receiving touchdowns.
Penn State has held serve in the trenches, ranking top-40 in defensive stuff rate but don’t have a stellar rushing success rate to match. One of my favorite players in all of college football this year is Joey Porter Jr. PSU comes in at top-5 in havoc generated by the secondary and he’s a large reason why.
Northwestern averages 305 passing yards per game, but Penn State is top-40 in defensive passing success rate as well as explosiveness.
Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats have just one win on the season but have played pretty scrappy throughout all 4 games. Evan Hull dropped the would-be game winning touchdown against Duke in week 2, so this team could look different with a play here and there.
Last week was a poor offensive showing against Miami (OH), losing 17-14 in a game where they were favored by over 7 points. Malik Washington’s two fumbles doomed an offense that ranks a putrid 115th in offensive explosiveness. If Northwestern finds themselves behind, it may be hard to make up the deficit.
Evan Hull is a workhorse back for the Wildcats, averaging 21 carries per game. Hull didn’t find the endzone last week but did in each of his previous three games. Hull also leads NW in the receiving department so it’ll be paramount for the Nittany Lions to focus on him.
Bryce Gallagher leads the defense in tackles and went nuclear last week against Miami (OH) posting 13 tackles, though he didn’t generate much havoc. It’ll be important for Northwestern to limit the Penn State explosiveness. Their top-50 rank in defensive explosiveness will be required to show up in earnest if they hope to cover their side.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern’s last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northwestern’s last 6 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Penn State’s last 6 games at home
- Penn State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
4* Free Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Northwestern ranks 19th in the country in seconds/play and maintain a poor explosiveness ranking. So while they’re snapping the ball more often than most, they’re not making big gains down the field, typically.
Penn State is the opposite story — they’re crushing the explosiveness department and that’s an important consideration with a high number to cover. They’ve only covered that many points twice this season, though they are averaging almost 39 ppg.
Pat Fitzgerald has been a cover GAWD since taking over the helm in Evanston, but managing only 14 points against a poor Redhawks squad gives me a lot of pause.
I think this will be a dominating performance by Penn State, lay the points.
4* Free Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats NCAA Betting Pick: Penn State -25.5
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats Free Score Prediction: Nittany Lions 41 – Wildcats 7 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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