T.J. Dillashaw (9-2-0): +575<\/strong><\/p>\nTJ Dillishaw steps in for injured Raphael Assuncao for the opportunity of his career \u2013 a title shot against Renan Barao \u2013 a fighter that hasn\u2019t lost since April, 2005. You will search long and hard to find anyone giving Dillishaw a chance in this fight \u2013 me included.<\/p>\n
Barao is an absolute nightmare to face \u2013 not only does he have a black belt in jiu-jitsu, his varied striking is some of the best in the organization. He can hit you and hurt you with both hands, both legs and both knees. He can and will do damage standing and IF you can get him to the ground (that\u2019s a huge IF), you will be dealing with a fighter as comfortable looking for a submission as he is knocking you out.<\/p>\n
Dillishaw has skills \u2013 don\u2019t get me wrong. He is a former NCAA Division 1 wrestler that has never been taken down in his MMA career. His conditioning is top tier and his striking has improved immensely over the last couple of years. Dillishaw has to hope to be one of the few that can drag Barao down to the mat and control him there \u2013 I don\u2019t see that happening.<\/p>\n
TJ Dillishaw is a tough guy but Barao is on a completely different level at this point in time. Nobody has touched him in nearly 10 years! Dillishaw\u2019s improved striking will help drag this fight out a little bit but in the end, standing and banging with Barao will prove to be his undoing. Nobody has hung with Renan Barao the last decade; I don\u2019t expect Dillishaw to either!<\/p>\n
Pick:<\/strong> Renan Barao -800<\/p>\nDaniel Cormier (14-0-0): -900<\/strong>
\n Dan Henderson (30-11-0): +650<\/strong><\/p>\nThe co-main event of the evening may be more intriguing than the main event – undefeated Daniel Cormier will try to knock off the legend Dan Henderson. Henderson will bring his patented right hand to the Octagon as well as a fading set of wrestling skills. Hendo looks to be in tough however against a fighter with a similar skillset but a younger, slightly more athletic makeup.<\/p>\n
Cormier will have a huge size advantage as he makes his second appearance as a Light Heavyweight after fighting at Heavyweight for the bulk of his career. Cormier may also have the wrestling advantage against his 43 year old opponent.<\/p>\n
While I think Henderson makes it all three rounds in this fight, I see him getting frustrated with the smothering style of Cormier. Expect Cormier to press Henderson against the fence and dirty box his way to a decision win. It certainly won\u2019t be pretty but it should be another victory for a still-undefeated Cormier.
\n[ad-3573245]
\nPick:<\/strong> Daniel Cormier -900<\/p>\nJake Ellenberger (29-7-0): +190<\/strong>
\n Robbie Lawler (22-10-0): -225<\/strong><\/p>\nA pair of knockout artists throw down in the third match of the pay-per-view card Saturday. Fighters looking to stay relevant in the Welterweight division square off \u2013 someone is likely to have their night end early in this one.<\/p>\n
18 of Lawler\u2019s 22 wins have come by knockout while 18 of Ellenberger\u2019s 29 wins have come the same way \u2013 no reason to think differently about the outcome of this fight! Ellenberger didn\u2019t look great in his last fight against Rory MacDonald while Lawler has won three of his last four fights \u2013 the only loss over that span coming to Johny Hendricks for the vacated Title – there is certainly no shame in that!<\/p>\n
Lawler, assuming that he has gotten over his most recent loss is the better all around fighter in this one with a whole lot more to prove. Take him to knock Ellenberger out in the second round.<\/p>\n
Pick:<\/strong> Robbie Lawler -225<\/p>\nTakeya Mizugaki (19-7-2): -175<\/strong>
\n Francisco Rivera (10-2-0): +150<\/strong><\/p>\nBantamweights take to the Octagon looking to make a little noise in the division when Takeya Mizugaki who is on a four fight win streak takes on Francisco Rivera whose six fight win streak came to a halt when he tested positive for a banned substance last time out after his KO win against Ronald Delorme.<\/p>\n
While Rivera\u2019s recent run has been impressive, he has gotten it done against lesser competition \u2013 the only time he has stepped up Rivera has been beaten down. Mizugaki on the other hand has been consistently facing top competition \u2013 two of his last four wins have come against top 15 guys.<\/p>\n
Mizugaki\u2019s experience over top tier guys will be the difference in this one \u2013 Rivera\u2019s few steps up in competition haven\u2019t gone so well \u2013 expect more of the same Saturday.<\/p>\n
Pick<\/strong>: Takeya Mizugaki -175<\/p>\nJames Krause (20-5-0): +145<\/strong>
\n Jamie Varner (21-9-1): -175<\/strong><\/p>\nLightweights kick off the pay-per-view card Saturday when James Krause takes on former WEC Lightweight champ Jamie Varner. Both fighters will be looking to climb up the ladder in the UFC hopefully securing a top 15 or even top 10 spot with a win. Both fighters are coming off losses and both need a strong rebound just to remain relevant in arguably the UFC\u2019s toughest division.<\/p>\n
Varner has lost three of his last four fights heading into Saturday night\u2019s action while Krause\u2019s only loss in the UFC came in controversial fashion \u2013 due to a possible low blow on a body kick against Bobby Green. Krause however brings with him an all-around skill set \u2013 he is as good on the ground as he is standing<\/p>\n
Varner looks like the better fighter ahead of Saturday night\u2019s showdown \u2013 he will have the experience edge against top competition and the reality that he may be fighting for his job in the organization. But with desperation comes carelessness \u2013 look tor Krause to jump on a few opportunities Varner gives up.<\/p>\n
James Krauss and Jamie Varner are close on paper but the pressure in this fight is squarely on Jamie Varner. I think it will be too much as a care-free James Krauss posts the biggest win of his career.<\/p>\n
Pick:<\/strong> James Krause +145<\/p>\nPreliminary Card<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\nMichael Chiesa (10-1-0): -135 vs. Francisco Trinaldo (14-3-0): +115
\nPick:<\/strong> Michael Chiesa -135<\/p>\nTony Ferguson (14-3-0): -270 vs. Katsunori Kikuno (22-5-2): +230
\nPick:<\/strong> Tony Ferguson -270<\/p>\nChico Camus (14-4-0): +295 vs. Chris Holdsworth (5-0-0): -360
\nPick:<\/strong> Chris Holdsworth -360<\/p>\nMitch Clarke (10-2-0): +275 vs. Al Iaquinta (8-2-1): -335
\nPick:<\/strong> Al Iaquinta\u00a0-335<\/p>\nFight Pass Card<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\nAnthony Njokuani (16-7-0): -225 vs. Vinc Pichel (8-1-0): +190
\nPick:<\/strong> Vinc Pichel +190<\/p>\nAaron Phillips (5-0-0): +130 vs. Sam Sicilia (12-4-0): -150
\nPick<\/strong>: Sam Sicilia -150<\/p>\nJingliang Li (8-2-0): +130 vs. David Michaud (7-0-0): -150
\nPick:<\/strong> +130<\/p>\n