The knowledge level remains remedial for this growing sport and the lines are often dull as a butter knife.<\/p>\n
If you follow these tips, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s unreasonable to expect to pick three out of every four fights correctly.<\/p>\n
1. Styles make fights. <\/h3>\n
The same logic promoters use to create matchups \u2013synching up various styles \u2013 is the best way to predict fight outcomes. If an NCAA Division-I wrestler faces a pure, throwback Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, the matchup will favor the wrestler more often than not. The wrestler will be an equally proficient grappler, but with better strength training, conditioning and punching power.<\/p>\n If a Muay Thai striker with great knockout power and fantastic takedown defense faces a grappler who can\u2019t succeed without getting his opponents to the ground, the striker is in great shape. <\/p>\n While examples like these don\u2019t ring true every time, they do more often than not. Demian Maia was a BJJ black belt facing Anderson Silva, a BJJ black belt who also had tremendous striking. There was just no way in hell that Maia could win that April 2010 fight. Silva could match Maia\u2019s one strength and had countless more tools in his belt.<\/p>\n A +180 dog can always pull an upset, as MMA lines aren\u2019t very sharp. But the major dogs \u2013 the +400s and beyond \u2013 almost never win. A line like that usually means the fighter is matched up against a superstar like Anderson Silva, Cristiane Santos or Georges St-Pierre \u2013 and those guys and gals almost never lose. Sure, it happens once in a blue moon, but the super-favorite wins 19 times out of 20.<\/p>\n The more you know about a fighter, the easier it is for you to identify if his betting line offers value. When possible, stick to fights and fighters who have lots of experience against top competition and, ideally, televised fights you can watch in advance. Avoid obscure undercard bouts, which are crapshoots. [ad-3573245]<\/p>\n Contrary to popular belief, the last-minute injury replacement isn\u2019t under the gun. The other guy is. A last-minute fighter has no pressure, no expectation to win, and hasn\u2019t spent an entire camp preparing for someone else. As long as the guy is in shape, he can surprise. The other fighter often suffers a mental letdown after his original opponent backs bout. Think Charlie Brenneman beating Rick Story.<\/p>\n Over the last few years, we\u2019ve learned that the UFC is head-and-shoulders above the other MMA promotions. Wanderlei Silva, Mirko Cro Cop, or pretty much every Japanese fighter \u2013 it seems like they had it easy overseas. They almost always struggle when they arrive in the UfC.<\/p>\n Of Chael Sonnen\u2019s 11 career losses, eight came via submission. He has an incredible knack for getting trapped in bad positions, even when he\u2019s winning fights. The next time he faces a good submission specialist, it\u2019s a smart idea to bet against him.<\/p>\n Same goes for guys with glass jaws. Knockout losses change fighters\u2019 careers; they make them more tentative. Worse, if they knockouts pile up, they rob fighters of their chins. A month ago, the educated bettor knew that Wanderlei Silva (a) had suffered particularly brutal knockout losses in three of his last seven fights and (b) was facing a vicious power puncher in Chris Leben. <\/p>\n All Leben needed was to land one good shot \u2013 and that\u2019s precisely what he did.<\/p>\n Shea Matthews weighs in with his analysis of how to become an expert at gambling on UFC and Mixed martial arts. He tells our UFC betting fans to avoid extreme underdogs, a +180 dog can always pull an upset, as MMA lines aren\u2019t very sharp…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":195,"featured_media":41684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1436],"tags":[51253,51252,51254,1172,2709,51255,51256,2097,1932,51257],"class_list":["post-41325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fight-club","tag-bet-on-ufc-ufc","tag-bet-ufc-lines","tag-betting-on-ufc","tag-sportsbook-odds","tag-ufc-betting","tag-ufc-gambling-tips","tag-ufc-handicapping-tips","tag-ufc-lines","tag-ufc-odds","tag-ufc-systems"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41325","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/195"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41325"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41325\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41686,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41325\/revisions\/41686"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41325"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41325"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41325"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/How-To-Bet-On-UFC-e1312561682798-150x150.jpg\" "\\"How")
2. Avoid extreme underdogs.<\/h3>\n
3. Stick to guys with large bodies of work.<\/h3>\n
4. Watch for value on injury fill-ins.<\/h3>\n
5. Veteran imports to the UFC can\u2019t cut it. <\/h3>\n
6. Put lots of stock into past performance.<\/h3>\n
**BET ON UFC – MMA + BOXING FOR REAL MONEY USING YOUR CREDIT CARD AT ANY OF OUR BEST SPORTSBOOKS**<\/strong><\/a> (We review them all here!)<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"