But the truth is that bettors still want to pick an individual winner. As a side note: the American League leads the all-time series 15-10, just in case you\u2019re wondering.<\/p>\n Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays<\/strong> No man has more long balls in the last year and a half than Jose Bautista, who hit 54 in 2010 and is somehow on pace to beat that total this season. First-timers sometimes struggle in the Derby but Bautista doesn\u2019t seem like the type. He\u2019s a clutch hitter who finds a way to hit balls for power no matter where they are in the strike zone.<\/p>\n Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers<\/strong> The 2009 champ has as strong a shot as anyone to win the Derby this season. Prince has pure, prodigious power. Is there any chance, though, that being the NL captain might distract him and\/or put extra pressure on him this time around?<\/p>\n Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals<\/strong> Matt Holliday is a great hitter but is he a true home run hitter? The two guys above him and the guy directly below him on this list have 50-homer seasons to their names. Not that a 30-homer guy has never won the Derby before, but I prefer the monsters who can knock the ball over the fence without even trying.<\/p>\n David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox<\/strong> Big Papi is in a very similar situation to Prince. He, too is a hulking, lefthanded bat and he, too faces the extra responsibility of being a team captain. The way Papi has swung the bat this season, though, I\u2019d expect a solid performance.<\/p>\n Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox<\/strong> Adrian Gonzalez has great power but he\u2019s also just a great hitter in general. He\u2019s the kind of guy who isn\u2019t afraid to go the other way and take a double off the monster. Since he isn\u2019t one to go for broke and hack like Fielder, Bautista and company, I\u2019d put Gonzalez in the second tier here.<\/p>\n Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers<\/strong> Kemp reminds me of Holliday in that he\u2019s a big guy with solid power but not necessarily a pure home-run swing. Then again, Kemp is probably the most athletic guy on this list. He strikes me as type who could \u201cdecide to hit homers\u201d at a massive rate for a night if he felt like it. Consider him an interesting sleeper. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]<\/p>\n Robinson Cano, New York Yankees<\/strong> Cano\u2019s swing is oh-so-sweet \u2013 but perhaps too sweet for the Home Run Derby. His crisp, line-drive stroke is good for 25-plus bombs a season but is not conducive to a Derby victory.<\/p>\n Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers<\/strong> I think Weeks is the contestant most likely to succumb to nerves tonight. He has far more power than many people realize, plus a lightning-quick bat ,but he may overcompensate to prove that tonight and wind up struggling.<\/p>\n If you believe in the myth that the Home Run Derby forces players to change their swing and subsequently messes up their game, Jose Bautista has to be your pick. The way I see it, he already has a \u201cHome Run Derby swing.\u201d It\u2019s big, long, and he (successfully) tries to pull everything. Bautista won\u2019t have to change his swing one bit tonight. He should be in his comfort zone.<\/p>\n As a guy who rode the pine for most of his career only to break out into stardom last year, he also knows he\u2019s playing with house money. <\/p>\n Bautista isn\u2019t likely to feel much pressure. <\/p>\n He should be just happy to be a part of the festivities and should flourish as a result.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/Home-Run-Derby-Betting-Picks.png\" "\\"Home")
Let\u2019s break down the eight hopefuls.<\/h3>\n
\nHome Run Derby odds: +280<\/p>\n
\nHome Run Derby odds: +350<\/p>\n
\nHome Run Derby odds: +350<\/p>\n Chat about this game in our MLB Forums<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\nHome Run Derby odds: +385<\/p>\n
\nHome Run Derby odds: +600<\/p>\n
\nHome Run Derby odds: +650<\/p>\n
\nHome Run Derby odds: +800<\/p>\n
\nHome Run Derby: +1200<\/p>\nTHE PICK<\/h3>\n