{"id":29884,"date":"2010-11-23T22:24:55","date_gmt":"2010-11-24T06:24:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.capperspicks.com\/blog\/?p=29884"},"modified":"2010-11-23T22:24:55","modified_gmt":"2010-11-24T06:24:55","slug":"leonard-statistical-analysis-running-football-teams-231110","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/cappers\/leonard-statistical-analysis-running-football-teams-231110\/","title":{"rendered":"Handicapping Running Football Teams"},"content":{"rendered":"

Run the Football<\/strong>!<\/h2>\n

\"Bryan<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cRun the football more times, and you win.\u201d<\/p>\n

I hear this all the time, on television and on radio. When examining key games, analysts often conclude one team\u00a0failed to run the football enough times, and the opponent pulled won the game simply because they had more rushing attempts. <\/p>\n

CLICK HERE TO VIEW BRYAN LEONARD’S FOOTBALL PICKS FOR THIS WEEK’S ACTION —–><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

We heard this a lot after Super Bowl 36. In that game, the two-touchdown favorite Rams saw star running back Marshall Faulk get just two carries, while Patriots running back Antoine Smith carried 18 times in the 20-17 upset. The Pats had 25 rushing attempts, the Rams 22.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s one game where you can make a case Faulk should have touched the ball more, but let\u2019s get back to the basic argument here: Is winning football, straight up and against the spread, as simple as running the ball more times?<\/p>\n

The stats suggest this, but I can assure you this is one area where the data lie, or at least gets twisted around to simplify a very complicated subject.<\/p>\n

I recently finished a statistical analysis on teams rushing the football during an entire NFL season. I broke it down into two categories:
\n1) Teams that rushed the ball 30 or more times and had more attempts than their opponents;
\n2) Teams that led by 10 or more points at the half and rushed 30 or more times. \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

On the surface, the results are a professional handicappers dream:<\/p>\n

30 or more rushing attempts\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010-point lead at the half, 30+<\/strong><\/p>\n

and out-rush the opponent<\/strong>:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0rushing attempts & out-rush opponent<\/strong><\/p>\n

158-30-1 straight up\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a066-4-1 straight up<\/p>\n

142-40-7 against the spread\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a064-7 against the spread<\/p>\n

I can hear many of you now: \u201cA 64-7 against the spread record! Wow! I\u2019m going to figure out what team should carry 30 times and bet them every game!\u201d\u00a0\u00a0If it was only that simple.<\/p>\n

How can you predict what team is going to be up by 10 or more at the half? If you could do that, you\u2019d be wiser to just make a first-half wager on those teams. And what team doesn\u2019t end up with more yards rushing after leading by double-digits at the half? Coaches with a big halftime lead aren\u2019t likely to throw the ball a lot in the third quarter \u2013 they want to milk the clock and practice ball control. And if a coach is down 20-3 at the half, do you think he\u2019s going to say to his players, \u201cThe team that runs the ball more times is 158-30-1 last season, so let\u2019s run the ball every play in the second half and we\u2019ll probably win.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0This is absurd.<\/p>\n

The numbers are being used to support a betting angle\u00a0after the fact. A successful professional handicapper is able to look forward and predict, not look backward and explain what happened. And there are so many facets to dissecting a football game that it\u2019s foolish to state, \u201cThis team would have won if they ran the ball more.\u201d<\/p>\n

The point analysts are making \u2013 though very badly \u2013 is that\u00a0ball control\u00a0is a great weapon. If a team is able to run successfully for first down after first down, for example, why would they ever need to pass? Former Ohio State coach Woody Hayes loved the ground game and used to say, \u201cWhen you pass the football, three things can happen, and two of them are bad.\u201d<\/p>\n

Generally speaking, teams that out-rush their opponent are ahead much of the game, and as a result have a greater tendency to end up winning that game (and even covering). But rushing the football a lot is not some magic formula for winning.\u00a0\u00a0So be careful when you read about betting angles and trends. Because if winning games were as simple as out-rushing the opponent, Wade Phillips would have run the football every play \u2013 and probably still have a job!<\/p>\n

365 days All Sports subscription of Bryan Leonard $1499<\/h4>\n

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Great Deal 4 U! Exclusive 100% Sportsbook Bonus! And 50% on Deposits Over $500! (New Players: ($100 Min. \/ $500 Max. ). CLICK HERE NOW!!!!<\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Generally speaking, teams that out-rush their opponent are ahead much of the game, and as a result have a greater tendency to end up winning that game…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":29885,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[258],"tags":[10330,39693,28682,39695,39696,35694,428,434,35693,39694],"class_list":["post-29884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cappers","tag-10330","tag-betting-on-running-teams","tag-bryan-leonard","tag-bryan-leonard-sports-handicapping","tag-bryan-leonard-sports-picks","tag-buying-points","tag-football-betting","tag-football-handicapping","tag-handicapping-expert-picks","tag-teams-that-run-the-ball"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29884","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/68"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29884"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29884\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29886,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29884\/revisions\/29886"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29885"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29884"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29884"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29884"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}