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<\/a>CLICK HERE TO VIEW OUR TOP CAPPERS’ PREMIUM PICKS FOR SUPERBOWL BETTING —–><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Time to break the matchup down once and for all.<\/p>\n SUPER BOWL XLIV – Sunday, February 7, 6:25 p.m. ET<\/strong> The Colts line shifted as far as -5.5 earlier this week but has since trended back to -5. It\u2019s understandable, as the Saints bring some truly formidable weapons to the table. Their offense was second to none this season, averaging a league-best 403.8 yards and 31.9 points per game. Few teams are as versatile as the 2009 Saints. We all know what athletic, charismatic Drew Brees can do; he throws a ton and can fit balls into tight spots. He\u2019s also an expert at using his receivers\u2019 strengths. He relies on Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey\u2019s athleticism with jump balls; he utilizes Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem\u2019s speed with deep routes; he uses Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush as capable backfield receivers.<\/p>\n A major reason why New Orleans took its game to the next level this year was, of course, the vaunted rushing attack, which ranked sixth in the NFL. Finally, New Orleans can protect a lead. Pierre Thomas wasn\u2019t an every-down back but his 5.4 yards per carry suggests he can be if called upon. Indy has notorious problems stopping the run; if the Saints grab an early lead, Thomas will give them a chance to widen the gap.<\/p>\n But there\u2019s a problem. I call it the \u201cbeen there, done that\u201d factor. Indianapolis is just three years removed from winning a Super Bowl in Miami and returns 25 players from that roster. There\u2019s very little reason for them to suffer any jitters. As poised as Drew Brees and the Saints have been so far, they may press a little early in the game and make a few mistakes \u2013 maybe the odd overthrow or false start. Against a finisher like Indianapolis, a few early blunders could be enough to seal a team\u2019s fate.<\/p>\n Peyton Manning\u2019s offensive line allowed an amazing 10 sacks in the regular season, giving him all day to throw the ball. Perhaps more so this year than ever before, Manning played the role of surgeon in the passing game, picking apart secondaries with outstanding precision; his 68.8 completion percentage was the best mark of his career. As he proved when he carved up two top-three defenses over Indy\u2019s last two playoff games, Manning can excel even when his top targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, are neutralized. He instead looks to rookies Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. The youngster tandem combined for 18 catches, 274 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets\u2019 top-ranked pass defense two weeks ago.<\/p>\n Some experts talk up Darren Sharper\u2019s big play ability and the Saints\u2019 dangerous, opportunistic defense, but why should that scare Manning when he conquered the Ravens\u2019 and Jets\u2019 far superior units? Some sceptics may question the Colts\u2019 finishing ability because their running game ranked dead last in the NFL at 80.9 yards per game. But I think the stat is misleading; since Manning and the passing game almost scored at will this year, Indy simply didn\u2019t have to run very often. The Saints\u2019 run defense is also a major concern; it allowed 165 yards to the Vikings and thus may give Joseph Addai and Donald Brown a rare shot at success. NEW ORLEANS vs. INDIANAPOLIS BETTING TRENDS<\/strong><\/p>\n New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis Pick: We\u2019ll certainly see lots of offense on Sunday but I\u2019m not totally convinced this will be a naillbiter. I see Indy marching out to a seven or 10-point lead and the Saints playing catchup the rest of the night. Indy will cover and win its second Super Bowl in four seasons.<\/p>\n
\nOpening line<\/strong>: Colts -4
\nCurrent line<\/strong>: Colts -5<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.capperspicks.com\/images\/superbowl\/2010-superbowl-article-image.gif\")
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\nAre the Colts perfect on defense? No, but they know how to make a stop at crucial moments, as they showed against Matt Schaub in Week 12 after rallying from a 17-0 deficit. They\u2019ll bend plenty \u2013 especially since they didn\u2019t face too many elite quarterbacks this year \u2013 and the Saints will score their share of points. But, as I said before, the minute the Colts get their first lead and take the driver\u2019s seat, they may never look back. The Saints could do damage in the running game but will have no choice but to abandon it if they fall behind.<\/p>\n
\nNew Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
\nIndianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
\nIndianapolis is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games<\/p>\n